Thursday, September 20, 2007

As regards the LDP election...

...the key concept seems to be "about one third."

In gross (the precise numbers are something that Okumura Jun could work out in his sleep) the prefectures hosting only a third of Japan's population will be providing two thirds of the local party organization votes for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.

In gross, the single seat districts and at-large regional bloc Diet seats producing less than a third of Japan's economic output will be providing over two thirds of the Diet member votes for the LDP presidential election.

In sum, in the selection process for a new party president--and by extension, a new Prime Minister for the Land of the Rising (?) Sun--the forces of regression will outnumber the forces of change two-to-one. About one third of the party votes cast will be representing nobody and nothing.

And in the rural-urban differences debate, the LDP is supposed to be playing the role of the party of the rational good guys and gals!

1 comment:

Jun Okumura said...

The Prefectural chapter votes distort the Upper House member votes distort the Lower House member votes, which in turn are not perfectly proportionally representative. Makes about as much sense as giving Delaware and New York the same number of US Senate seats, doesn't it? The Brazilians are in the same situation.

Think of the LDP President as the head of a federation of Provincial chapters (which it probably is, when you put yourself in the shoes of an assemblyperson or other local worthie), and it begins to make weird political sense.

Actually, those things often take a lot of time to work out, and sometimes the numbers don't wind up telling the story at all. That's why I don't do more of them. Thanks anyway.