Nancy Snow was away two weeks ago, leaving Timothy Langley and me to carrying out a males-only exchange of views on Japan's nuclear reactor restarts, power plant siting issues, the Fukui injunction against the restart of the Takahama reactors, the US-Japan security relationship, the April local elections and the landing of a drone on the roof of the Prime Minister's Residence.
Showing posts with label Fukushima nuclear disaster. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fukushima nuclear disaster. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Yes, An Expletive Is Appropriate Here
Yesterday the government began placing bags of Fukushima topsoil contaminated by the March 2011 nuclear accidents into an "interim" storage facility near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi complex.
The scale of the enterprise boggles the imagination. As the The Japan News (a.k.a, the Yomiuri Shimbun, translated into English) reports:
Ten million cubic meters? In a "trial run"? In a year?
Folks, to give some sense of what they are talking about doing, the standard 20 foot shipping container on the back of the truck in the below photograph is 33 cubic meters -- and that is outside dimensions, not what you can actually pack inside.
That means, just doing the math roughly, 304,000 truckloads of the above size, 830 truckloads every single day (no holidays), will arrive and be unloaded at the site -- in a year.
Something is seriously wrong with these numbers. If not, something is seriously wrong with the folks in charge.
It gets worse. In the highly redacted online Japanese version of this article, the 12 bags (~12 cubic meters) of topsoil deposited in yesterday's opening ceremony were brought to the site in two dump trucks. At that rate it would take 1.7 million truck trips to transport the 10 million cubic meters of soil from the current short-term storage sites to the "interim" site.
This is just...insane.
----------------------------
1) "Soil transfer to interim storage begins / Major step in recovery of Fukushima." The Japan News, 14 March 2015.
The scale of the enterprise boggles the imagination. As the The Japan News (a.k.a, the Yomiuri Shimbun, translated into English) reports:
The Environment Ministry plans to move the contaminated soil — currently being kept at more than 75,000 locations in the prefecture’s 43 villages, towns and cities — to the facility gradually. Work to remove the soil, seen as an impediment to reconstruction efforts, has finally been launched.
The construction of the facility is planned in a coastal area of about 1,600 hectares that straddles the line between the towns of Okuma and Futaba. The facility, which is designed to prevent leaks of radioactive substances, is capable of storing up to 22 million cubic meters of soil and other radioactive waste for a maximum of 30 years.
For a period of one year, the transfer will be conducted on a trial basis. During the period, 10 million cubic meters of soil will be moved from the villages, towns and cities affected... (1)
Ten million cubic meters? In a "trial run"? In a year?
Folks, to give some sense of what they are talking about doing, the standard 20 foot shipping container on the back of the truck in the below photograph is 33 cubic meters -- and that is outside dimensions, not what you can actually pack inside.
That means, just doing the math roughly, 304,000 truckloads of the above size, 830 truckloads every single day (no holidays), will arrive and be unloaded at the site -- in a year.
Something is seriously wrong with these numbers. If not, something is seriously wrong with the folks in charge.
It gets worse. In the highly redacted online Japanese version of this article, the 12 bags (~12 cubic meters) of topsoil deposited in yesterday's opening ceremony were brought to the site in two dump trucks. At that rate it would take 1.7 million truck trips to transport the 10 million cubic meters of soil from the current short-term storage sites to the "interim" site.
This is just...insane.
----------------------------
1) "Soil transfer to interim storage begins / Major step in recovery of Fukushima." The Japan News, 14 March 2015.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Live Blogging The Oe Kenzaburo Press Conference
Nobel laureate Oe Kenzaburo (b. 1931.01.31) will be speaking at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan. I will see if I can live blog the event
Oe Kenzaburo arriving at the FCCJ.
12:42 Journalist Kamata Satoshi is offering introductory statement of the situation in Fukushima on the eve of the 4th anniversary of the triple disaster of 3/11.
12:46 Oe begins his remarks. He speaks in a high, halting voice.
.jpg)
12:51 Oe points out the ridiculousness of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's insistence in Buenos Aires that "Fukushima is under control" -- and that the attitude of duplicity (to self, the country and the world) became the seeming norm.
By contrast, the German people were able to view the nuclear issue as a world issue. Japanese could not see the problem in a global sense.
13:00 "In my literature, trees play a huge role. I think the fate of the trees of Fukushima is a symbol of the scale and methodology of the clean up effort. In particular 80,000 highly contaminated large trees have been cut down, chopped up and put into storage.
13:01 One of the ideas is to burn the wood of these trees, collecting the ashes and burying it. But what of all the radiation released in the burning?
While not downgrading the suffering of humans, the loss of these trees is striking to me. Trees are promises to the future. Here the future has been lost.
The Germans [Oe is riffing on the ongoing visit to Japan of Chancellor Angela Merkel] thinks about the limits of technology -- that Chancellor Merkel in a conversation with Prime Minister Abe noted that despite Japan's technical prowess, control of a nuclear facility was lost. Prime Minister Abe, however, has no such reaction and reflection to Fukushima.
13:09 The current government of Japan has no understanding of the issues and no Japanese politicians who have the will and the capacity to learn from the lessons of Fukushima.
This government does not pay attention to the views of non-Japanese, particularly the government of Asia.
13:13 [In a nice segue, Oe draws a parallel by the Japanese government's state of denial about the seriousness of the situation in Fukushima and the state of denial regarding relations toward China -- as regards the Senkakus -- and South Korea -- as regards Takeshima or as the South Koreans call it "Dokto" -- that in both cases, the current Japanese government seems to have no intention or effort to change the terrible relations that exist]
13:19 Five years I had decided to give up the life of a novelist...I wanted to start a new way of living. I took my hints on what to do with the rest of my life from the late Palestinian-American scholar Edward Said. I had been rereading my own work when Said was diagnosed with leukemia.
13:24 Said got me thinking about the artistic style of the end of humanity or the end of a single person's life.
On Late Style - his book of his views on the style expressing one's thoughts in the face of one's end...got me thinking about my end and the world's end.
13:29 Fukushima represents a late style of humankind's express of barbarism. Adorno spoke of barbarism after Auschwitz. After Auschwitz, after Hiroshima and now after Fukushima, what is literary production if not barbarism -- what would Said have said?
How are we to live, what is the style in the state of utter disappointment? The interviewers of Said would say at the end, all he felt optimistic (rakkanteki) about .life
[Oe's prolix delivery would overwhelm an ordinary translation. Takamatsu Tamako, the FCCJ's translator is far from ordinary.]
13:34 I want, in my late style, post-novelist period in my life to find out how others speak, how to not be involved in barbarism.
Oe Kenzaburo arriving at the FCCJ.
12:42 Journalist Kamata Satoshi is offering introductory statement of the situation in Fukushima on the eve of the 4th anniversary of the triple disaster of 3/11.
12:46 Oe begins his remarks. He speaks in a high, halting voice.
.jpg)
12:51 Oe points out the ridiculousness of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's insistence in Buenos Aires that "Fukushima is under control" -- and that the attitude of duplicity (to self, the country and the world) became the seeming norm.
By contrast, the German people were able to view the nuclear issue as a world issue. Japanese could not see the problem in a global sense.
13:00 "In my literature, trees play a huge role. I think the fate of the trees of Fukushima is a symbol of the scale and methodology of the clean up effort. In particular 80,000 highly contaminated large trees have been cut down, chopped up and put into storage.
13:01 One of the ideas is to burn the wood of these trees, collecting the ashes and burying it. But what of all the radiation released in the burning?
While not downgrading the suffering of humans, the loss of these trees is striking to me. Trees are promises to the future. Here the future has been lost.
The Germans [Oe is riffing on the ongoing visit to Japan of Chancellor Angela Merkel] thinks about the limits of technology -- that Chancellor Merkel in a conversation with Prime Minister Abe noted that despite Japan's technical prowess, control of a nuclear facility was lost. Prime Minister Abe, however, has no such reaction and reflection to Fukushima.
13:09 The current government of Japan has no understanding of the issues and no Japanese politicians who have the will and the capacity to learn from the lessons of Fukushima.
This government does not pay attention to the views of non-Japanese, particularly the government of Asia.
13:13 [In a nice segue, Oe draws a parallel by the Japanese government's state of denial about the seriousness of the situation in Fukushima and the state of denial regarding relations toward China -- as regards the Senkakus -- and South Korea -- as regards Takeshima or as the South Koreans call it "Dokto" -- that in both cases, the current Japanese government seems to have no intention or effort to change the terrible relations that exist]
13:19 Five years I had decided to give up the life of a novelist...I wanted to start a new way of living. I took my hints on what to do with the rest of my life from the late Palestinian-American scholar Edward Said. I had been rereading my own work when Said was diagnosed with leukemia.
13:24 Said got me thinking about the artistic style of the end of humanity or the end of a single person's life.
On Late Style - his book of his views on the style expressing one's thoughts in the face of one's end...got me thinking about my end and the world's end.
13:29 Fukushima represents a late style of humankind's express of barbarism. Adorno spoke of barbarism after Auschwitz. After Auschwitz, after Hiroshima and now after Fukushima, what is literary production if not barbarism -- what would Said have said?
How are we to live, what is the style in the state of utter disappointment? The interviewers of Said would say at the end, all he felt optimistic (rakkanteki) about .life
[Oe's prolix delivery would overwhelm an ordinary translation. Takamatsu Tamako, the FCCJ's translator is far from ordinary.]
13:34 I want, in my late style, post-novelist period in my life to find out how others speak, how to not be involved in barbarism.
Monday, February 09, 2015
Reading Kingston On Abe And Samuels
Professor Jeff Kingston has produced a highly readable essay on the Prime Minister's moves last week to promote his security agenda. The effort has been multi-pronged, with thrusts on constitutional revision, expansion of the geographic area covered by self-defense, expansion of the definition of self-defense to include damage to the Japanese economy and establishment of a special forces rescue unit. Coming on the heels of what was a diplomatic and humanitarian failure -- everybody died and a vengeful bombing campaign erupted -- Abe-san's full out run for military solutions to international political problems, seems a bit...unseemly. (Link)
Kingston refers to this behavior as swinging for the fences. To be sure, Abe and Company do have incentives to propose way too much in the knowledge that in the back-and-forth of domestic politics ambitious proposals are whittled down to something the country's editorialists can disagree upon.
However, Abe and Co. have a another important reason to overreach now: Abe is the Anti-Koizumi.
Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro could rely upon what mystified commentators called the Koizumi Magic. On seemingly any issue, Koizumi could transform, through reasoned argument, adamantine will, and an ineffable something, what was a Majority Against into a Majority For. (Archive)
Abe The Second Coming has been demonstrating a consistent and astonishing capacity to do the opposite. On any and every marquee policy proposal Abe and his colleagues drive voter support into the ground -- while leaving the Cabinet's popularity unchanged. The more Abe and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide talk about a policy change, the lower the level of voter support, at least as measured by public opinion polls. One would think that out of pure luck Abe and Co. would chance upon some issue where the stance taken by the Abe government would increase in popularity over time.
No such luck.
So Abe must seek the maximum at the outset, at the risk of appearing to be far ahead of the public mood, out of the practical realization that as he tries to explain what he wants to he will erode whatever confidence the public may have in the wisdom of what he is proposing.
A corollary to the above is that Abe and his team members have a strong incentive to cut off debate at what seems ta midpoint and before the discussion has moved to a deeper level. If Abe is to get anything done, he has to cut his losses and move on -- at the outset.
Which will one day make for a rather confusing and unsatisfying historical record.
As for Kingston's conversation with Richard Samuels, Dr. Samuels (full disclosure: Dr. Samuels is a friend) gives his own paradigms short shrift. In addition to the advocates of rapid expansion of Japan's security program and the advocates of a retreat to first principles of Japanese post-1945 security policy mentioned in the Kingston essay, a full Samuels treatment would fine a third group arguing that even though the attempts to negotiate a hostage release ended up in failure, such negotiations have ended up in failure for every national government other than that of Turkey -- and one shudders to think what the Turks gave up to secure their hostages.
Japan, according to this view, did no worse or better than anyone else. Japan is therefor not on the wrong path in terms of its security policy development. The government and the people should not panic.
Samuels explores this tripartite division of responses to threat and catastrophe in his most recent book 3.11 Disaster and Change in Japan. Amaterasu willing, 3.11 could see the light of day in a Japanese language edition sometime soon.
The key takeaway -- and Samuels hammers away at this in 3.11 and in his public appearances -- is that almost no one comes away from these experiences with his/her assumptions shaken. Those who wanted to accelerate policy change and/or switch Japan's policy direction will find the government's inability to save Yukawa and Goto demonstrates the rightness of their views. Those who advocated steady-as-we-go, progressive, "normalizing" policies will downplay the failure and declare the maintenance of a cool, cerebral demeanor paramount. Those who have disliked the expansion and transformation of Japan's security behavior, advocating either a slowdown or more often a reversal of the processes of the last three decades, will see Yukawa's and Goto's deaths as justifying their caution and skepticism.
Some readers may find Kingston's tone and vocabulary overblown. Consider them responses to the extraordinary gall displayed by certain members of the Japanese foreign policy commentariat who seen it appropriate to condemn/decry the sharp criticism of the Abe government. The calls for national unity and support of the Abe government made by these person who shall remain nameless would fall on more receptive ears if residents of this blessed land could forget the vicious, opportunistic and avaricious attacks showered upon the Kan government in the days immediately following the triple disaster of 3.11, even as the country was reeling from the disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and an unfolding massive nuclear accident.
No solidarity then, friends, means no solidarity now -- and no rhetorical restraint now either.
Kingston refers to this behavior as swinging for the fences. To be sure, Abe and Company do have incentives to propose way too much in the knowledge that in the back-and-forth of domestic politics ambitious proposals are whittled down to something the country's editorialists can disagree upon.
However, Abe and Co. have a another important reason to overreach now: Abe is the Anti-Koizumi.
Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro could rely upon what mystified commentators called the Koizumi Magic. On seemingly any issue, Koizumi could transform, through reasoned argument, adamantine will, and an ineffable something, what was a Majority Against into a Majority For. (Archive)
Abe The Second Coming has been demonstrating a consistent and astonishing capacity to do the opposite. On any and every marquee policy proposal Abe and his colleagues drive voter support into the ground -- while leaving the Cabinet's popularity unchanged. The more Abe and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide talk about a policy change, the lower the level of voter support, at least as measured by public opinion polls. One would think that out of pure luck Abe and Co. would chance upon some issue where the stance taken by the Abe government would increase in popularity over time.
No such luck.
So Abe must seek the maximum at the outset, at the risk of appearing to be far ahead of the public mood, out of the practical realization that as he tries to explain what he wants to he will erode whatever confidence the public may have in the wisdom of what he is proposing.
A corollary to the above is that Abe and his team members have a strong incentive to cut off debate at what seems ta midpoint and before the discussion has moved to a deeper level. If Abe is to get anything done, he has to cut his losses and move on -- at the outset.
Which will one day make for a rather confusing and unsatisfying historical record.
As for Kingston's conversation with Richard Samuels, Dr. Samuels (full disclosure: Dr. Samuels is a friend) gives his own paradigms short shrift. In addition to the advocates of rapid expansion of Japan's security program and the advocates of a retreat to first principles of Japanese post-1945 security policy mentioned in the Kingston essay, a full Samuels treatment would fine a third group arguing that even though the attempts to negotiate a hostage release ended up in failure, such negotiations have ended up in failure for every national government other than that of Turkey -- and one shudders to think what the Turks gave up to secure their hostages.
Japan, according to this view, did no worse or better than anyone else. Japan is therefor not on the wrong path in terms of its security policy development. The government and the people should not panic.
Samuels explores this tripartite division of responses to threat and catastrophe in his most recent book 3.11 Disaster and Change in Japan. Amaterasu willing, 3.11 could see the light of day in a Japanese language edition sometime soon.
The key takeaway -- and Samuels hammers away at this in 3.11 and in his public appearances -- is that almost no one comes away from these experiences with his/her assumptions shaken. Those who wanted to accelerate policy change and/or switch Japan's policy direction will find the government's inability to save Yukawa and Goto demonstrates the rightness of their views. Those who advocated steady-as-we-go, progressive, "normalizing" policies will downplay the failure and declare the maintenance of a cool, cerebral demeanor paramount. Those who have disliked the expansion and transformation of Japan's security behavior, advocating either a slowdown or more often a reversal of the processes of the last three decades, will see Yukawa's and Goto's deaths as justifying their caution and skepticism.
Some readers may find Kingston's tone and vocabulary overblown. Consider them responses to the extraordinary gall displayed by certain members of the Japanese foreign policy commentariat who seen it appropriate to condemn/decry the sharp criticism of the Abe government. The calls for national unity and support of the Abe government made by these person who shall remain nameless would fall on more receptive ears if residents of this blessed land could forget the vicious, opportunistic and avaricious attacks showered upon the Kan government in the days immediately following the triple disaster of 3.11, even as the country was reeling from the disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and an unfolding massive nuclear accident.
No solidarity then, friends, means no solidarity now -- and no rhetorical restraint now either.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Ein Saga *
In my latest post for Langley Esquire (Link) I note that the party makeup of the Kagoshima Prefectural Assembly left no doubt of as to the outcome of the vote on the Sendai reactor restarts.
So how does the Kagoshima assembly stack up against the assemblies of the prefectures hosting the reactors most likely to next come up for a vote? Where else will restart approval be a foregone conclusion?
A little chart of the party allegiances of the seat holders in the assemblies of the five prefectures with reactors most likely to next come up for restart approval, based upon data I collected from the websites of the assemblies.
Click on image to open in a larger format.
Stunning, ne?Makes one wonder whether or not Saga Prefecture has a law making it illegal to run for office if one belongs to a major party other than the LDP.
Later - An anonymous commenter point how erroneous was my the anomalous result. Thank you anonymous commenter! I have replaced the former image with a corrected one.
-------------
* For the reference, there is YouTube.
T'is true, I am inordinately fond of Sibelius.
So how does the Kagoshima assembly stack up against the assemblies of the prefectures hosting the reactors most likely to next come up for a vote? Where else will restart approval be a foregone conclusion?
A little chart of the party allegiances of the seat holders in the assemblies of the five prefectures with reactors most likely to next come up for restart approval, based upon data I collected from the websites of the assemblies.
Click on image to open in a larger format.
Stunning, ne?
Later - An anonymous commenter point how erroneous was my the anomalous result. Thank you anonymous commenter! I have replaced the former image with a corrected one.
-------------
* For the reference, there is YouTube.
T'is true, I am inordinately fond of Sibelius.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Putin's Jujitsu - A Fantasy
In the aftermath of Mori Yoshiro's little visit to Russia last week (Link) I was asked what, if anything, Abe Shinzo hopes to achieve by continuing his now indirect engagement with Vladimir Putin.
My stock answer has been that Japan's Russia diplomacy runs down two tight corridors:
1) efforts to gain a return of the Northern Territories and
2) the development of Russian energy sources for importation into Japan.
These are still open questions so Japanese diplomats and politicians just keep on shuttling, riding on the carryover from earlier rapprochement efforts and from out of a desperate search for energy, particularly LNG, post-3/11 and Fukushimi Daiichi.
Having said the above, I wondered whether there was not a back door to a substantial and radical recalibration of Russia's position. Let say that after the annexation of Crimea and the disruption of the Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has absolutely unassailable Russian imperial expansionist credentials. The cost, and it has been huge, of acquiring these credentials has been the Western Alliance's opprobrium, which has closed all kinds of doors to Putin, his siloviki cronies and his country (there is also the very real possibility of shooting breaking out soon in between Russian and NATO forces). What if Putin were to take all the momentum of the moment and pivot, cutting a deal with Abe Shinzo for the return of part or even all of the Northern Territories, in return for, let us say, the Japanese government's abandonment of U.S.-led efforts to isolate Russia? A grateful Japan then goes overboard in its support of the development of Russian Far East hydrocarbon resources, enriching Putin and his henchmen and markedly increasing Japan's dependence on Russia for its energy. Meanwhile, at the other end of Eurasia, Putin's sudden strategic abandonment of Russia's hold on the Northern Territories raises insane and stupid hopes regarding the potential return to Germany of Kaliningrad, a dream most modern Germans did not know they even had (Karelia, of course, was won fair and square in the good fight against the dreaded Finns and so is not a part of the grand strategy). The Kaliningrad gambit, transparently manipulative as it would be, disrupts EuroAmerican unity just when the Western Alliance was getting over the reality of Europe's dependency on Russian energy.
[An aside, but as I told MK last week, Russian strategists are probably not serious in playing China against Japan or China against Europe as regards access to Russian energy resources. If possible, Russians want everyone to be dependent upon them.]
The above is a crazed confection of paranoia and geostrategy (sometimes these two items are difficult to disambiguate) -- but Putin must be telling Abe something in order to keep the Japanese side hoping beyond hope for an sudden, improbable ippon gachi.
Original photo image credit: BBC
Friday, August 01, 2014
Before We Get All Excited About The TEPCO Ruling
Recommendation for indictment from the #5 Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution and the three TEPCO suspects
Let us run through the Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution drill one more time, shall we?
STEP ONE: The public prosecutor's office investigates suspects, deciding whether or not to indict them on charges.
STEP TWO: The public prosecutor's office, after careful consideration of the evidence, decides it cannot secure a conviction of the suspects in question.
STEP THREE: A private individual or a group, ticked off at the decision of the prosecutors, files a motion with the Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution to reexamine the prosecutor's decision.
STEP FOUR: The Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution, whose sole reason for existence is to question the decisions of prosecutors to not prosecute, comes to the conclusion that the public prosecutor's office should reconsider its decision. (This is what happened yesterday as regards the three former executive of Tokyo Electric Power Company, owner and operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station - Link)
STEP FIVE - The public prosecutor's office, upon being told that its decision to not prosecute was wrong, replies, "No, we got it right the first time: there is no basis for a prosecution" and rejects the Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution's conclusion.
STEP SIX - The Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution, pissed off that the public prosecutors refused to take its conclusion seriously, says, "Oh yeah? Why did we even bother to ask you to reconsider anyway? We'll just appoint our own, private sector lawyers to indict and prosecute the defendants. So there!"
STEP SEVEN - The Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution trudges over to the local bar association office to find three lawyers to serve as prosecutors. The local bar association tells the Committee to not expect much, as no competent lawyer with a thriving practice has the time to be a prosecutor. Furthermore, no lawyer concerned about his/her professional reputation would agree to step in after the public prosecutors have already twice determined there is no case. The Committee asks the bar association to try anyway.
STEP EIGHT - Three lawyers who are either incompetent, do not care about their reputations or have been browbeaten into accepting the role by colleagues saying, "Look, just accept the assignment, OK? Just go through the motions, fail and the Committee is off all our backs. We'll make it up to you later" agree to look at the evidence.
STEP NINE - Since the three lawyers were hired to file charges, they unsurprisingly find the evidence to prosecute compelling and indict the suspects.
STEP TEN - Either from a personal lack of smarts, zero cooperation from a resentful public prosecutor's office or the total absence of giving a damn, the three lawyers fail to convince a judge of the merits of the charges and the suspects are all found "Not Guilty."
And no, the above is not just a cynic's barking. This what happens when an interesting question -- "Is there not some way that average citizens, certain that the decisions of public prosecutors to not prosecute are the result of political interference or other nefarious forces, can demand that the prosecutors either do their jobs or stand aside?" is not followed up by the question "OK, what could go wrong?"
Later - The Asahi Shimbun sees the Committee's action in a less caustic light, giving extra credit for having at least the right intentions. (Link
Screen shot courtesy: NHK News
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Positive Lessons For The Opposition From The Shiga Governor's Race
"Wanna race?"
Over at Izakaya Politics, Stephen Stapczynski has published a credible analysis of the outcome of the Shiga gubernatorial election. (Link)
I cannot disagree with Stapczynski's broad point that whatever the nation's dailies and talking heads are saying, there is little reason to believe the Abe government's recent decision to reinterpret the Constitution so as to allow the exercise of the right of collective self-defense (CSD) strongly impacted the outcome in Shiga. While there is evidence the CSD decision affected the outcome by somewhat suppressing the New Komeito vote for the ruling alliance candidate (Link), talking about the possible effect of CSD detracts attention from the real valence issue in Shiga: nuclear power plant restarts -- from which Shiga Prefecture would enjoy relatively few benefits and accrue a significant amount of risk. Indeed, it is telling that Abe Shinzo and other LDP bigwigs, who have reason to blow smoke in people's eyes, have been among the most prominent purveyors of the narrative that the CSD decision affected the Shiga outcome. (Link - J)
Stapczynski's conclusion is not unreasonable:
"Abe's shift in security policy will have a broader (yet minimal) impact on his national approval rating, but nuclear energy was the key issue in the Shiga gubernatorial elections, not CSD. The LDP is still the king of the land, and I suspect that future local elections will go in their favor. And with no organized or popular opposition party in sight (Mikazuki ran as an independent), Abe really doesn’t have anything to worry about."Nevertheless, there are aspects of the Shiga election Stapczynski does not mention which do have significant implications for revival of the fortunes of Japan's political opposition.
1) You Can Do This
After getting trounced by the LDP-New Komeito alliance in election after election since the ill-designed House of Representatives contest of December 2012, Japan's riberaru ("liberal" very much in the American sense of the word) politicians managed in Shiga to hang on in one of their strongholds. That they were able to do so at a time when the national polls show the liberal parties in total winning the loyalties of only 10% of the voters -- the LDP alone has the allegiance of 40% -- just hanging on is a major achievement.
2) The Communists Don't Enter Into It
All during the post-war era, the Japan Communist Party has served as a facilitator of LDP dominance. By insisting on running candidates in almost every race, the JCP has traditionally drained off around 10-15% of anti-LDP votes, making it difficult for moderate anti-LDP candidates to compete.
The big question for many has been whether moderate opposition is so down at present it has no choice but to forge an electoral alliance with the Communists, fielding joint candidates in order to capture that otherwise lost 10%-15%.
The Shiga result indicates that the answer to the question is "No, the opposition does not need to accommodate the Communists, a move that could destroy it, in order to beat the LDP" -- though the nuclear restart issue clouds the conclusion.
3) Make Them Happy To Vote Again
This is the big one.
Turnout for the Shiga election was 50.15%. This seems a dramatic decline from the number in 2010, when 61.56% of the voters showed up. However, the 2010 contest was held in concert with a House of Councillors election, artificially goosing the numbers in the gubernatorial race.
The true comparative is the 2006 election, when Kada Yukiko won her first term in office. The figure then was 44.94%, 5.21 percentage points fewer than in last Sunday's contest.
So what?
Here's what: the margin of victory for the former DPJ MP Mikazuki was just 13,076 votes, less than 2.4% of the total votes cast. Exit polls indicate that some of that margin of difference came from disaffected New Komeito voters, a surprising 24% of whom disobeyed the party directive to vote for the LDP's Koyari.
The vast majority of votes that made a difference, however, came from the ranks of the non-aligned vote, which according to recent polls, is 42.5% of the electorate (Link - J). Non-aligned voters broke for the anti-nuclear Mikazuki two-to-one, overwhelming the machine LDP vote (73% of self-proclaimed LDP voters chose Koyari).
The exit polls indeed indicated that while the nuclear restarts issue was crucial on the margin, it was not fundamental to the voting patterns of the voters. Only 10.3% of the voters called nuclear power the most important issue at hand. Far more named economic growth and employment (28.4%) and social welfare (19.3%) the key issues of the election. For those thinking the economy and employment the key issues, 63.1% voted for the LDP's Koyari.
So the takeaway from the election results for the opposition, particularly the moribund DPJ, are:
- keep the nuclear power phaseout plans worked out under the Kan Naoto and Noda Yoshihiko administrations - it helps at the margin
- ditch the constrictive Koizumi/DPJ economic policies of a decade ago. They made some sense in the fat times of the early part of the Zero Years. After the Global Recession of 2008-Present, they make zero sense. Be big time Abenomics boosters instead, but offer an alternative "Abenomics with a brain attached"
- snipe at Abe Shinzo and the LDP higher ups for their omniscient, dictatorial attitudes, even as newspaper editorialists tell you not to -- because doing so keeps the New Komeito leadership nervous about appearing to be the pushovers they are
- finally, GET PEOPLE HAPPY ABOUT VOTING AGAIN
The Second Abe Era began with 10 million voters not showing up at the polls in December 2012, turning a DPJ defeat into a runaway LDP victory -- in an election where there was were non-DPJ, anti-LDP alternatives for whom moderates could vote (and vote they did, for the Japan Restoration Party, which captured 12 million votes to the DPJ's 8 million). The message out of Shiga to the opposition is "Get the disaffected voters interested in voting -- not necessarily voting for you, specifically, just voting at all -- and the LDP can lose, just like it did before 2012."
Voter turnout. Voter turnout. Voter turnout.
Get it up and you are in this game again.
Later - The Economist has published a solid presentation of the more standard view, with the graph everyone has to keep in mind when thinking about Abe Shinzo -- and the advance warning the Fukushima and Okinawa gubernatorial elections are not likely to polish the image of Abe as LDP leader. As noted above, that members of Team Abe use the Cabinet Decision on CSD as an explanation for the Shiga results invites caution. (Link)
Image courtesy: Abe Shinzo official Facebook page.
Monday, December 16, 2013
World Order - "Last Dance"
The work of electronica dance group World Order is intensely political. The group's very name is a blackly ironic take on George H. W. Bush's New World Order, as was made crystal clear in their June video, "Imperialism."
"Imperialism" is an outlier in terms of its sledgehammer message. Much of the time the group is infuriatingly and charmingly oblique in its judgments, inscrutable as their blank facial expressions.
World Order's latest video "Last Dance" is clearly a commentary on where the country is under the Abe Administration and more broadly in the aftermath of the triple disaster of 3/11 -- but seems unfinished, probably intentionally so. The Ministry of Finance, METI, the anti-nuclear protestors outside METI, the Supreme Court all make cameo appearances. Mt. Fuji is one prominent backdrop, playing on the mountain's UNESCO World Heritage Site listing this year. Sequences shot in front of nuclear power plants and the archival footage of one of the Fukushima Daiichi plant buildings exploding are juxtaposed with footage shot in front of a hydroelectric dam, a solar farm and a wind farm fronting an oil tank farm. The group is saying something about Japan's energy policy but what, exactly? Are the members offering an idealized anti-high velocity, anti-mass production Arcadian vision a la Godfrey Reggio -- which may be the only place one can end up when one starts using cameras and slow motion to reveal the pace and patterns of contemporary human life?
The inclusion of seasonal references -- the famous drive of gingko trees in Jingu in their full golden exuberance, the susuki in the Mt. Fuji sequence -- seem to hammer two messages. First, that this is a Japanese video for designed for Japanese to interpret (which begs the question what the heck I think I am doing here). Second, that even though the video of this performance has been archived in the vast global library of the Internet, it remains no more than a bit of emphemera, with a hard chronological locus ("This is the autumn of 2013 - and no other time"). The nature scenes also offer a sharp alternative to the unnatural but not unpleasantly angular and clean human-crafted environments of Shiodome and Shinjuku Station.
And oh yes, the suits. They are not, as the Huffington Post has it, "classy." They are off-the-rack from low-cost mass formal wear retailer Yofuku no Aoyama (more irony here) which features the group in its ads. This is sarariman uncool and conformist ideology, stretched to the point where they become their opposites.
There is a sincere, unquiet core to the work...but with all the style and ambiguity, the conclusion is left up to viewer to draw. For whom is this a "Last Dance" -- the country, the iron triangle of Big Business-Bureacracy-Politicians, humanity? The identification of a last dance dovetails with the rhetoric of those portraying Abenomics being a "last chance" for economic and socio-political revival (just search "Japan" "last" "chance" to see what I mean). As with World Order's last work -- the Olympics-inspired paen to the TMD "Welcome to Tokyo" -- the above video is best viewed in Full Screen mode. Later - From the standpoint of a business model, World Order is in a class by itself. Not only only does the group produce highly political work -- it gets corporations to pay for it. Aoyama has funded their work; so has Sumitomo Corporation. Asiana Airlines probably asked for a gawky and sweet "All of Asia is One" message in the video it bankrolled. What Asiana Airlines got was "Permanent Revolution" -- with its extraordinary postscript questioning the role of the United States in East Asian affairs (with the secret message written in English).
"Imperialism" is an outlier in terms of its sledgehammer message. Much of the time the group is infuriatingly and charmingly oblique in its judgments, inscrutable as their blank facial expressions.
World Order's latest video "Last Dance" is clearly a commentary on where the country is under the Abe Administration and more broadly in the aftermath of the triple disaster of 3/11 -- but seems unfinished, probably intentionally so. The Ministry of Finance, METI, the anti-nuclear protestors outside METI, the Supreme Court all make cameo appearances. Mt. Fuji is one prominent backdrop, playing on the mountain's UNESCO World Heritage Site listing this year. Sequences shot in front of nuclear power plants and the archival footage of one of the Fukushima Daiichi plant buildings exploding are juxtaposed with footage shot in front of a hydroelectric dam, a solar farm and a wind farm fronting an oil tank farm. The group is saying something about Japan's energy policy but what, exactly? Are the members offering an idealized anti-high velocity, anti-mass production Arcadian vision a la Godfrey Reggio -- which may be the only place one can end up when one starts using cameras and slow motion to reveal the pace and patterns of contemporary human life?
The inclusion of seasonal references -- the famous drive of gingko trees in Jingu in their full golden exuberance, the susuki in the Mt. Fuji sequence -- seem to hammer two messages. First, that this is a Japanese video for designed for Japanese to interpret (which begs the question what the heck I think I am doing here). Second, that even though the video of this performance has been archived in the vast global library of the Internet, it remains no more than a bit of emphemera, with a hard chronological locus ("This is the autumn of 2013 - and no other time"). The nature scenes also offer a sharp alternative to the unnatural but not unpleasantly angular and clean human-crafted environments of Shiodome and Shinjuku Station.
And oh yes, the suits. They are not, as the Huffington Post has it, "classy." They are off-the-rack from low-cost mass formal wear retailer Yofuku no Aoyama (more irony here) which features the group in its ads. This is sarariman uncool and conformist ideology, stretched to the point where they become their opposites.
There is a sincere, unquiet core to the work...but with all the style and ambiguity, the conclusion is left up to viewer to draw. For whom is this a "Last Dance" -- the country, the iron triangle of Big Business-Bureacracy-Politicians, humanity? The identification of a last dance dovetails with the rhetoric of those portraying Abenomics being a "last chance" for economic and socio-political revival (just search "Japan" "last" "chance" to see what I mean). As with World Order's last work -- the Olympics-inspired paen to the TMD "Welcome to Tokyo" -- the above video is best viewed in Full Screen mode. Later - From the standpoint of a business model, World Order is in a class by itself. Not only only does the group produce highly political work -- it gets corporations to pay for it. Aoyama has funded their work; so has Sumitomo Corporation. Asiana Airlines probably asked for a gawky and sweet "All of Asia is One" message in the video it bankrolled. What Asiana Airlines got was "Permanent Revolution" -- with its extraordinary postscript questioning the role of the United States in East Asian affairs (with the secret message written in English).
Friday, November 08, 2013
So Fake - A Senryu on Abe Shinzo and Fukushima
Every day this past week, yet another domestic retail icon has announced that food outlets under its roof or under its management have been making false claims as to the ingredients in their dishes. The revelations have stuck a carving knife into Japan's service industry's reputation as a place of dedication to providing the customer with only the very best.
Yesterday, it was the Hotel Okura's turn. (Link)
The scandal started with revelations at Hankyu Hotels in Osaka, where the first discrepancies in between what was described on the menus and what actually was in the kitchen came to light. Hankyu president Desaki Hiroshi, in a desperate effort to shield his organization from lawsuits and/or prosecution for fraud, provided the scandal with its catchphrase:
Huh?
One Hakkaku Shurin of Sosa City, Chiba Prefecture, keeping track of the deceptions that really matter, submitted to the Tokyo Shimbun's Saturday topical senryu poetry feature the following 17-syllable gem:
I wonder whether it is the penumbra of the Imperial House's patronage of poetry, highlighted in a recent presentation at Temple University Japan by Professor Ben-Ami Shillony (Link) that provides the safe harbor allowing senryu to be the acceptable outlet for sarcastic hackdowns of our purported betters...
--
* Source: Tokyo Shimbun of 2 November 2013, page 5.
Yesterday, it was the Hotel Okura's turn. (Link)
The scandal started with revelations at Hankyu Hotels in Osaka, where the first discrepancies in between what was described on the menus and what actually was in the kitchen came to light. Hankyu president Desaki Hiroshi, in a desperate effort to shield his organization from lawsuits and/or prosecution for fraud, provided the scandal with its catchphrase:
"I do not believes these were misrepresentations (giso). These were mistaken public announcements (gohyoshi). This was not something where the goal was to fool the customers and gain a profit from it."No, no, if you list particular ingredients on a menu, and accept money for the food you have served, that substitutions were made without the customer's knowledge could never have been for the purpose of gaining a profit.
(Link - J)
Huh?
One Hakkaku Shurin of Sosa City, Chiba Prefecture, keeping track of the deceptions that really matter, submitted to the Tokyo Shimbun's Saturday topical senryu poetry feature the following 17-syllable gem:
「ブロック」と言うNow who has said anything about something be blocked, recently?
誤表示も
偽装なの *
"Burokku" to iu
gohyoshi mo
giso na no
"Blocked"
that mistaken public announcement
was a misrepresentation too
Abe again insists that radioactive water at Fukushima plant is 'completely blocked'Oh, yeah, that "burokku" -- oops, his bad!
Mainichi Shimbun
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has again repeated his insistence that radioactive water leaks at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant are being kept within the bay there.
"We are monitoring radiation levels, and they are far below the safety limits for radioactive materials. The effects of the contaminated water are being completely blocked," Abe said on Oct. 22 at the House of Representatives' Budget Committee, denying that radioactive materials are affecting the outside ocean. The remarks were made in response to a question by the Japanese Communist Party's Akira Kasai.
At the International Olympic Committee Session in September, Abe said that "the effects (of the radioactive water) are being completely blocked to inside of the bay" and "the situation is under control." However, in questioning during the Lower House plenary session on Oct. 16, he didn't use the word "completely" and qualified his "under control" statement with "overall," saying, "The effects are blocked to within the bay. Overall the situation is under control."
(Link)
I wonder whether it is the penumbra of the Imperial House's patronage of poetry, highlighted in a recent presentation at Temple University Japan by Professor Ben-Ami Shillony (Link) that provides the safe harbor allowing senryu to be the acceptable outlet for sarcastic hackdowns of our purported betters...
--
* Source: Tokyo Shimbun of 2 November 2013, page 5.
Saturday, September 14, 2013
No Nukes, Again
The morning papers are reminding me that as of tomorrow when the Oi #4 reactor goes offline for maintenance, Japan will once again be without nuclear-generated electrical power. (Link - J)
Paul Scalise (a friend) argues frequently, forcefully and plausibly that the continued shutdowns of the country's nuclear power plants imperils the finances and indeed the existence of the nation's power companies (Link - the text, not the video). Business scholar Ulrike Schaede, somewhat less plausibly, argues that Abenomics will fail without reactor restarts. (Link)
As for what the public thinks, the most recent Asahi Shimbun opinion poll, conducted September 7 and 8, finds 26% of the public in favor of reactor restarts, and 56% opposed (Link - J). The monthly NHK poll, conducted September 6, 7 and 8, found 22% in favor, 41% opposed and 34% undecided on the restarts, even under the proviso that the restarts would be of reactors meeting new, stricter Nuclear Regulation Authority safety guidelines. (Link)
Most of the public feels cautious about accepting official statements regarding the safety of operation of the nuclear power stations. There is also seemingly a great deal of skepticism about pronouncements of doom should the reactors continue to be kept offline. That the power grid has not collapsed, and the economy crumpled, after probably the hottest spring and summer on record, puts a dent in the credibility of those arguing for restarts even if public opinion is against them.
A pair of senryu and accompanying cartoons on that subject:
An aside, but one of the striking attributes of the humorous verses and cartoons published in the Tokyo Shimbun is how many of them require a knowledge of non-Japanese music or literature, international affairs or English to understand. However, neither the Tokyo Shimbun nor its parent the Chunichi Shimbun do any publishing in English. The upshot is that the products of the Japanese news organizations whose outlook and shared culture would be most recognizable to non-Japanese readers remain locked up behind the wall of the Japanese language.
Funny, that.
-----------
Image courtesies: Tokyo Shimbun
Paul Scalise (a friend) argues frequently, forcefully and plausibly that the continued shutdowns of the country's nuclear power plants imperils the finances and indeed the existence of the nation's power companies (Link - the text, not the video). Business scholar Ulrike Schaede, somewhat less plausibly, argues that Abenomics will fail without reactor restarts. (Link)
As for what the public thinks, the most recent Asahi Shimbun opinion poll, conducted September 7 and 8, finds 26% of the public in favor of reactor restarts, and 56% opposed (Link - J). The monthly NHK poll, conducted September 6, 7 and 8, found 22% in favor, 41% opposed and 34% undecided on the restarts, even under the proviso that the restarts would be of reactors meeting new, stricter Nuclear Regulation Authority safety guidelines. (Link)
Most of the public feels cautious about accepting official statements regarding the safety of operation of the nuclear power stations. There is also seemingly a great deal of skepticism about pronouncements of doom should the reactors continue to be kept offline. That the power grid has not collapsed, and the economy crumpled, after probably the hottest spring and summer on record, puts a dent in the credibility of those arguing for restarts even if public opinion is against them.
A pair of senryu and accompanying cartoons on that subject:
原発が
いらぬと分かる
夏終わる
Genpatsu ga
iranu to wakaru
natsu owaru
Learning that we do not need
nuclear reactors
a summer ends
(by "Michi" of Suginami City, published in the Tokyo Shimbun of 7 September 2013)
酷暑にもIn the case of the latter poen, the cartoonist has drawn a dog with a mouth, nose and eyes that together form the corporate logo of the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Link). It is sweating bullets beneath a burning sun. Despite its suffering, however, it does not bark or howl -- a seeming extended reference to Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's famous dog that did not bark in the Sherlock Holmes story "Silver Blaze."
電力不足の
声はなし
Kokusho ni mo
denryoku fusoku no
koe nashi
Despite the blistering heat
of a lack of electric power
no voice is heard
(by Koyano Takeshi of Higashiyamato City, published in the Tokyo Shimbun of 31 August 2013)
An aside, but one of the striking attributes of the humorous verses and cartoons published in the Tokyo Shimbun is how many of them require a knowledge of non-Japanese music or literature, international affairs or English to understand. However, neither the Tokyo Shimbun nor its parent the Chunichi Shimbun do any publishing in English. The upshot is that the products of the Japanese news organizations whose outlook and shared culture would be most recognizable to non-Japanese readers remain locked up behind the wall of the Japanese language.
Funny, that.
-----------
Image courtesies: Tokyo Shimbun
Friday, September 06, 2013
Measured Radioactivity In The Tokyo Metropolitan District
Via reader GK on Facebook, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government-affiliated English language site reporting the radiation levels in Tokyo, with links to the reporting by the waterworks and other monitors.
Measurement results of environmental radiation levels in Tokyo
Clicking on the link to Tokyo Metropolitan Industrial Research Institute, for example, gives you access to the most recent (September 5) findings on radioactivity in atmospheric dust.
Nothing. No iodine. No cesium.
Of course, it was raining yesterday, meaning that there was probably little dust in the air to measure...
Measurement results of environmental radiation levels in Tokyo
Clicking on the link to Tokyo Metropolitan Industrial Research Institute, for example, gives you access to the most recent (September 5) findings on radioactivity in atmospheric dust.
Nothing. No iodine. No cesium.
Of course, it was raining yesterday, meaning that there was probably little dust in the air to measure...
Tuesday, September 03, 2013
All For The Olympics
Yesterday morning, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's first task was a 40 minute run through of the presentation he will be making before the International Olympic Committee in Buenos Aires (Link - J). Tokyo Governor Inose Naoki, whose presentation skills in English are non-existent, or at least were at the last Olympic get-together, is already in Argentina preparing for his part in the presentation. (Link - J)
Given Prime Minister Abe's still suspect constitution (the digestive system-related kind) his agenda this week is one to give anyone who gives a damn the jitters. Not only is the PM crowding his daily calendar right now with the groundwork for the fall legislative session, he is also attending the G-20 leaders summit in Moscow on the 5th. It is a long way from Moscow to Buenos Aires, even aboard a Self Defense Forces' 747 jumbo jet, just for the opportunity to stand and read, pronunciation and internal clock askew, off the teleprompter to the jaded and already spoken for delegates prior to the final host city vote on the 7th.
Abe's willingness making the trip, however, seems to have forced the hand of a beleaguered Tayyip Erdogan (Link). Turkey's prime minister probably feels he should probably be spending his time responding to internal dissent and coping with the ripple effects of the civil war in Syria, rather than jetting to the ends of the earth to plug Istanbul's host city bid.
Such decision are part of the responsibilities of leadership, or at least the keeping up of the appearances of leadership.
It will be of great interest to historians, picking their ways through the first eight months of the Abe II premiership, to find out how much Abe's actions or inactions have been influenced by the need to put the best face possible on Japan in the run up to the IOC vote. Have Abe and his friends toned down, delayed or foregone their potentially more provocative moves -- an Abe visit to Yasukuni, for example -- in order to create a positive atmosphere for Inose and the Tokyo Olympic organizing committee to work their public relations magic? My guess is probably, yes. Ken Belson's article on Inose (Link) must have stimulated the Tokyo Olympic bid committee into making frantic pleas to the Prime Minister's Residence to be proactive, thinking not just about international repercussions of any nationalist activity but the potential for even innocent mistakes to get blown out of proportion.
If such pleas for caution have kept a lid on the Abe Cabinet's potential for causing upset, then perhaps this whole Olympics/world peace talk is not all so much nonsense.
It also might mean that these past eight months have been the calm before the storm.
There is, or course, the inverse effect -- of perhaps too readily seeing a pre-Olympics conspiracy behind the government's post-election behavior, most prominently its seemingly months-too-late takeover of the cleanup at the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power station. As yet, the main news outlets have shied away from making the connection between the government's crash program of facing up to the immense task of stabilizing Fukushima Dai'ichi and the IOC vote. The Asahi Shimbun seems to have crept out the farthest, liberally quoting those who say they see a government trying to keep a lid on the leaking storage tanks story in order to minimize the potential adverse impact on the Olympic bid. (Link)
Persons who would like to disparage the suppression-of-bad-news-in-order-not-upset-the-Olympic-vote claims, seeing in them violations of Hanlon's Razor, would find their task much easier if the head of Tokyo's bid committee would not take such actions as sending a special, last minute letters to each and every IOC member, explaining that despite what they may have heard about highly radioactive water leaking from storage tanks on the Fukushima Dai'ichi site, "Tokyo is safe." (Link and Link - J)
Japan-based foreign journalists have recently published a few local Olympics-related stories of interest.
Over at The Japan Times's YenForLiving blog, the team of Brasor and Tsukubu have taken a dispassionate look at the claims by bid supporters of a positive economic outcome from hosting the Olympics (Link) - which must be the first "the economics of the Olympics" essay I have ever read that does not mention the budgetary catastrophe wreaked on Montreal by the 1976 Summer event. For The Times of London Richard LLoyd Parry writes about the impossibility of holding the triathlon's swimming leg in the waters off of Odaiba unless a means is found to cleanse the water there of E. coli and other enteric-disease causing bacteria (Link - great, subdued headline). I am not sure as to where Parry is getting his numbers but even the easily searchable reports from 2010 studies (Link - J) seem to show post-rainstorm bacteria concentrations in Odaiba water at 100 times the permissible limit.
As one who used to swim at Odaiba and who two week ago was wading into the water at the Tokyo Metropolitan District's one swimming beach (warning at beach: "Do not dive into the water" - Link ) after a day of exceptionally heavy rain, I am at best agnostic on the coliform bacteria problem being a threat to health. To be honest, I was a heck of a lot more worried about the stingrays -- which I have seen in the waters off Odaiba.
Later - This post has been edited to restore lost text and links.
Later still -- An earlier version of the post misidentified the author of the E. coli article as David McNeill. The actual author is Richard Lloyd Parry. My apologies to both gentlemen.
Given Prime Minister Abe's still suspect constitution (the digestive system-related kind) his agenda this week is one to give anyone who gives a damn the jitters. Not only is the PM crowding his daily calendar right now with the groundwork for the fall legislative session, he is also attending the G-20 leaders summit in Moscow on the 5th. It is a long way from Moscow to Buenos Aires, even aboard a Self Defense Forces' 747 jumbo jet, just for the opportunity to stand and read, pronunciation and internal clock askew, off the teleprompter to the jaded and already spoken for delegates prior to the final host city vote on the 7th.
Abe's willingness making the trip, however, seems to have forced the hand of a beleaguered Tayyip Erdogan (Link). Turkey's prime minister probably feels he should probably be spending his time responding to internal dissent and coping with the ripple effects of the civil war in Syria, rather than jetting to the ends of the earth to plug Istanbul's host city bid.
Such decision are part of the responsibilities of leadership, or at least the keeping up of the appearances of leadership.
It will be of great interest to historians, picking their ways through the first eight months of the Abe II premiership, to find out how much Abe's actions or inactions have been influenced by the need to put the best face possible on Japan in the run up to the IOC vote. Have Abe and his friends toned down, delayed or foregone their potentially more provocative moves -- an Abe visit to Yasukuni, for example -- in order to create a positive atmosphere for Inose and the Tokyo Olympic organizing committee to work their public relations magic? My guess is probably, yes. Ken Belson's article on Inose (Link) must have stimulated the Tokyo Olympic bid committee into making frantic pleas to the Prime Minister's Residence to be proactive, thinking not just about international repercussions of any nationalist activity but the potential for even innocent mistakes to get blown out of proportion.
If such pleas for caution have kept a lid on the Abe Cabinet's potential for causing upset, then perhaps this whole Olympics/world peace talk is not all so much nonsense.
It also might mean that these past eight months have been the calm before the storm.
There is, or course, the inverse effect -- of perhaps too readily seeing a pre-Olympics conspiracy behind the government's post-election behavior, most prominently its seemingly months-too-late takeover of the cleanup at the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power station. As yet, the main news outlets have shied away from making the connection between the government's crash program of facing up to the immense task of stabilizing Fukushima Dai'ichi and the IOC vote. The Asahi Shimbun seems to have crept out the farthest, liberally quoting those who say they see a government trying to keep a lid on the leaking storage tanks story in order to minimize the potential adverse impact on the Olympic bid. (Link)
Persons who would like to disparage the suppression-of-bad-news-in-order-not-upset-the-Olympic-vote claims, seeing in them violations of Hanlon's Razor, would find their task much easier if the head of Tokyo's bid committee would not take such actions as sending a special, last minute letters to each and every IOC member, explaining that despite what they may have heard about highly radioactive water leaking from storage tanks on the Fukushima Dai'ichi site, "Tokyo is safe." (Link and Link - J)
Japan-based foreign journalists have recently published a few local Olympics-related stories of interest.
Over at The Japan Times's YenForLiving blog, the team of Brasor and Tsukubu have taken a dispassionate look at the claims by bid supporters of a positive economic outcome from hosting the Olympics (Link) - which must be the first "the economics of the Olympics" essay I have ever read that does not mention the budgetary catastrophe wreaked on Montreal by the 1976 Summer event. For The Times of London Richard LLoyd Parry writes about the impossibility of holding the triathlon's swimming leg in the waters off of Odaiba unless a means is found to cleanse the water there of E. coli and other enteric-disease causing bacteria (Link - great, subdued headline). I am not sure as to where Parry is getting his numbers but even the easily searchable reports from 2010 studies (Link - J) seem to show post-rainstorm bacteria concentrations in Odaiba water at 100 times the permissible limit.
As one who used to swim at Odaiba and who two week ago was wading into the water at the Tokyo Metropolitan District's one swimming beach (warning at beach: "Do not dive into the water" - Link ) after a day of exceptionally heavy rain, I am at best agnostic on the coliform bacteria problem being a threat to health. To be honest, I was a heck of a lot more worried about the stingrays -- which I have seen in the waters off Odaiba.
Later - This post has been edited to restore lost text and links.
Later still -- An earlier version of the post misidentified the author of the E. coli article as David McNeill. The actual author is Richard Lloyd Parry. My apologies to both gentlemen.
Monday, August 12, 2013
Any Signs Of Abenomics' Working Yet? A Rant's Worth
As a huge fan of the writings of Princeton's Paul Krugman, I have been hoping that today's GDP release today would provide some evidence of Abenomics actually changing spending habits.
Maybe there is.
If mortgage rates are going to rise dramatically, one should see desperate buying in the interest-rate sensitive sectors. Lo and behold, looking at the nominal increase figures one finds a year-on-year quarterly rise of 9.4% (correct me if I am wrong, but when annualized, this is 44%) in private residential investment. Over that same span private consumption overall rose only 1.2%, or 4.9% annualized. (Link).
Some of this rush into housing, though, must result from the prospect of a sudden jump in costs taking place at the stroke of midnight on 31 March 2013. With the new fiscal year comes the rise of the consumption tax from 5% to 8% -- a huge price increase for consumers to swallow.
Either excuse -- rising interest rates or a big, bad new tax on transactions -- would be reason enough to get cracking on buying that piece of land, home or condo.
If consumers had fear of the new tax but only a weak fear of inflation, one should see weak or negative growth in big ticket items not bought on credit, i.e. - where borrowing rates do not enter into the equation. Consumers considering these big purchases would be right to oscillate between the temptation to buy now so as to to beat out the imposition of the tax and the fear of cheating oneself by failing to enjoy the new features of the latest generation of products becoming available in the new year -- items one still can buy before the March 31 tax tax rise kicks in.
Looking at the purchases of durable goods, we do find a -5.4% drop year-on-year (-23% when annualized) in the second quarter. This continues the shrinkage that began in the fourth quarter of 2013. The rate of decline is decelerating but the year-on-year figures for durables remain in the red, unlike the numbers for semi-durable and non-durable items. (Link).
Consumers should be worried about the price rises manufacturers are going to try to impose. Nevertheless, that fear has not manifested itself. Either that or consumers are not going on to go on a buying spree until the last few weeks of this year, when distributors and retailers slash prices to clear the way for new merchandise.
So in the aggregate consumers are spending more, but none of the extra spending may have anything to do with Abenomics creating inflationary expectations or expectations of robust (kencho na - borrowing the adjectival used this morning by Minister of Economics, Trade and Industry Amari Akira - Link - J) growth.
Where Abenomics has been successful is, of course, in the dumb stuff: government spending, exports and national income.
- Increase public spending, replicating the temporary burst the Democratic Party of Japan-led government deployed to prevent the triple disaster of 3/11 from engulfing the economy -- but this time without any disaster other than the continuing catastrophe at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station to counter, and yep, you can get nominal GDP back to where it was at its post-disaster stimulus height.
- Have the Cabinet and the Bank of Japan swear todebase the yen expand the BOJ's balance sheet indefinitely. Calculate one's export earnings and the income from overseas investments in the newly debased currency's units. Look like a sales and investment genius, despite having done diddly (exports and income from abroad are up 4.7% and 16.6%, respectively, from the second quarter 2012 - Link)
Does the dumb stuff count? Sure...but the DPJ would be doing itself a great favor if one of its officers would just stand up and declaim:
"Borrow money and spend it? We could have done that. But we had a sense of responsibility toward the future, to not further deepen Japan's debt hole at the expense of future taxpayers. Actively attack the yen's value, telling folks to better get rid of their yen because we are going to fritter away the currency's relatively worth? We could have done that. Since we care about small businesses and consumers losing their domestic purchasing power, rather than the profits of the large exporters, we didn't. We didn't because we cared ...and even if we had not cared, nobody -- the media, the opposition parties of the time, the voters -- would have allowed us to behave so irresponsibly.
But the Liberal Democratic Party, coming in, manipulating the currency, increasing the deficit, stiffing consumers and savers? That, that is OK. In fact it is not just OK, you all are cheering it on!
The DPJ is in disarray, a loser because it does not know what it stands for? Ii kagen ni seyo!"
I know such a speech is not on anyone's daily schedule. Instead, likely as not those clining to the shell of a party will just keep carping about "wasteful public works spending" as if the voters know how do differentiate what is wasteful from what is necessary in a depressed economy.
However, that something will not happen does not keep me from smiling at the thought of what the reaction would be if it did.
As for my hopes that reality-based economists like Krugmam, Joseph Stiglitz, Brad DeLong and Noah Smith are right about the effects of ferocious quantitative easing and big fiscal stimulus packages -- they remain only that, hopes.
--
For the full press release on the preliminary estimates for Q2 2013 GDP: (Link - J)
Later -Thanks to all those who responded to the request for a correction.
Maybe there is.
If mortgage rates are going to rise dramatically, one should see desperate buying in the interest-rate sensitive sectors. Lo and behold, looking at the nominal increase figures one finds a year-on-year quarterly rise of 9.4% (
Some of this rush into housing, though, must result from the prospect of a sudden jump in costs taking place at the stroke of midnight on 31 March 2013. With the new fiscal year comes the rise of the consumption tax from 5% to 8% -- a huge price increase for consumers to swallow.
Either excuse -- rising interest rates or a big, bad new tax on transactions -- would be reason enough to get cracking on buying that piece of land, home or condo.
If consumers had fear of the new tax but only a weak fear of inflation, one should see weak or negative growth in big ticket items not bought on credit, i.e. - where borrowing rates do not enter into the equation. Consumers considering these big purchases would be right to oscillate between the temptation to buy now so as to to beat out the imposition of the tax and the fear of cheating oneself by failing to enjoy the new features of the latest generation of products becoming available in the new year -- items one still can buy before the March 31 tax tax rise kicks in.
Looking at the purchases of durable goods, we do find a -5.4% drop year-on-year (-23% when annualized) in the second quarter. This continues the shrinkage that began in the fourth quarter of 2013. The rate of decline is decelerating but the year-on-year figures for durables remain in the red, unlike the numbers for semi-durable and non-durable items. (Link).
Consumers should be worried about the price rises manufacturers are going to try to impose. Nevertheless, that fear has not manifested itself. Either that or consumers are not going on to go on a buying spree until the last few weeks of this year, when distributors and retailers slash prices to clear the way for new merchandise.
So in the aggregate consumers are spending more, but none of the extra spending may have anything to do with Abenomics creating inflationary expectations or expectations of robust (kencho na - borrowing the adjectival used this morning by Minister of Economics, Trade and Industry Amari Akira - Link - J) growth.
Where Abenomics has been successful is, of course, in the dumb stuff: government spending, exports and national income.
- Increase public spending, replicating the temporary burst the Democratic Party of Japan-led government deployed to prevent the triple disaster of 3/11 from engulfing the economy -- but this time without any disaster other than the continuing catastrophe at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station to counter, and yep, you can get nominal GDP back to where it was at its post-disaster stimulus height.
- Have the Cabinet and the Bank of Japan swear to
Does the dumb stuff count? Sure...but the DPJ would be doing itself a great favor if one of its officers would just stand up and declaim:
"Borrow money and spend it? We could have done that. But we had a sense of responsibility toward the future, to not further deepen Japan's debt hole at the expense of future taxpayers. Actively attack the yen's value, telling folks to better get rid of their yen because we are going to fritter away the currency's relatively worth? We could have done that. Since we care about small businesses and consumers losing their domestic purchasing power, rather than the profits of the large exporters, we didn't. We didn't because we cared ...and even if we had not cared, nobody -- the media, the opposition parties of the time, the voters -- would have allowed us to behave so irresponsibly.
But the Liberal Democratic Party, coming in, manipulating the currency, increasing the deficit, stiffing consumers and savers? That, that is OK. In fact it is not just OK, you all are cheering it on!
The DPJ is in disarray, a loser because it does not know what it stands for? Ii kagen ni seyo!"
I know such a speech is not on anyone's daily schedule. Instead, likely as not those clining to the shell of a party will just keep carping about "wasteful public works spending" as if the voters know how do differentiate what is wasteful from what is necessary in a depressed economy.
However, that something will not happen does not keep me from smiling at the thought of what the reaction would be if it did.
As for my hopes that reality-based economists like Krugmam, Joseph Stiglitz, Brad DeLong and Noah Smith are right about the effects of ferocious quantitative easing and big fiscal stimulus packages -- they remain only that, hopes.
--
For the full press release on the preliminary estimates for Q2 2013 GDP: (Link - J)
Later -Thanks to all those who responded to the request for a correction.
Monday, July 01, 2013
Where The Abe Cabinet Will Lead Us - A Preview
Two worthies well worth listening to -- Columbia University professor Gerald Curtis and Sophia University professor Nakano Koichi -- will be speaking this noontime at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan. (Link)
I must admit a curious relationship with both men. Professor Curtis gave a very kind public plug for Shisaku last month, with the caveat (an unnecessary one, really) that "Michael is not always right." Professor Nakano does not know quite what to make of me, even after we have served on discussion panels together. I am guessing, though, that I am not his favorite person.
Which is odd, because of the two, I more inclined to agree with Dr. Nakano than Dr. Curtis, specifically on the outlook for the governing style of the Abe Cabinet after the July 21 election. Professor Curtis is largely sanguine, expecting that the postwar habis of political parties and governments holding back from the full use of their powers will carry on past July 21. I believe, and I suspect Dr. Nakano believes that once clear of the House of Councillors election the Liberal Democratic Party's worst elements will run amok, bulldozing long-desired revisionist and remilitarization claptrap through the Diet, constrained by only by the occasional mild protest from a cowering New Komeito and/or their own sloth.
Dr. Curtis has assured me that fear public criticism will keep Abe and Company from making use of the near dictatorial powers they will enjoy after July 21. The good doctor may have a point: the Abe government has heretofore not made much use of its supermajority in the House of Representatives...if by "not made much use" one means, "if one ignores the use of the supermajority to pass the redistricting based upon the egregious +0/-5 electoral reform legislation perpetuating the inequalities in the electoral system critical to LDP dominance." (Link - J)
I am not sure that today's LDP, composed of folks who could not stop attacking Prime Minister Kan Naoto even as the country was plunged in its worst crisis since World War II, is so genteel as to be reined in by admonitions from the nation's editors and television personalities.
If I were at the press conference I would also like to hear what both professors make of the recent drops in voter participation...and not just for the knife to the back such opting out from voting has been for the Democratic Party of Japan. I would like to know how the two professors will incorporate the terrible voter turnout numbers for the last two big elections (last December's House of Representatives election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election of June 23) and the projected poor turnout for the July 21 election into their theories on how Japanese democracy works, or, if they wish to categorize it so, how Japanese democracy does not work.
I must admit a curious relationship with both men. Professor Curtis gave a very kind public plug for Shisaku last month, with the caveat (an unnecessary one, really) that "Michael is not always right." Professor Nakano does not know quite what to make of me, even after we have served on discussion panels together. I am guessing, though, that I am not his favorite person.
Which is odd, because of the two, I more inclined to agree with Dr. Nakano than Dr. Curtis, specifically on the outlook for the governing style of the Abe Cabinet after the July 21 election. Professor Curtis is largely sanguine, expecting that the postwar habis of political parties and governments holding back from the full use of their powers will carry on past July 21. I believe, and I suspect Dr. Nakano believes that once clear of the House of Councillors election the Liberal Democratic Party's worst elements will run amok, bulldozing long-desired revisionist and remilitarization claptrap through the Diet, constrained by only by the occasional mild protest from a cowering New Komeito and/or their own sloth.
Dr. Curtis has assured me that fear public criticism will keep Abe and Company from making use of the near dictatorial powers they will enjoy after July 21. The good doctor may have a point: the Abe government has heretofore not made much use of its supermajority in the House of Representatives...if by "not made much use" one means, "if one ignores the use of the supermajority to pass the redistricting based upon the egregious +0/-5 electoral reform legislation perpetuating the inequalities in the electoral system critical to LDP dominance." (Link - J)
I am not sure that today's LDP, composed of folks who could not stop attacking Prime Minister Kan Naoto even as the country was plunged in its worst crisis since World War II, is so genteel as to be reined in by admonitions from the nation's editors and television personalities.
If I were at the press conference I would also like to hear what both professors make of the recent drops in voter participation...and not just for the knife to the back such opting out from voting has been for the Democratic Party of Japan. I would like to know how the two professors will incorporate the terrible voter turnout numbers for the last two big elections (last December's House of Representatives election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election of June 23) and the projected poor turnout for the July 21 election into their theories on how Japanese democracy works, or, if they wish to categorize it so, how Japanese democracy does not work.
Saturday, June 08, 2013
Me Talking About India-Japan Nuclear Power Cooperation
Via Voice of America. (Link)
My family name, however, is pronounced "Chew-check." You can find us primarily in Slovenia and Croatia.
My family name, however, is pronounced "Chew-check." You can find us primarily in Slovenia and Croatia.
Friday, March 29, 2013
A Gift For The Nuclear Village
The restart of nuclear reactors in this blessed land has run up against a number of hurdles. One is the possibly intentional slow pace at which local communities around the nation's nuclear plants are drawing up evacuation plans (Link – J). Another has been the unwillingness of commissions of experts to declare inactive the seismic faults that run through nation's reactor sites.
Those wanting to throw doubt on the assessments of these seismic experts received a huge gift yesterday:
Professor Sato did himself no favors at the press conference. From the clips shown on television, his attitude was of bemusement at his misidenfication of the concrete foundations of the former Nissan assembly plant as a natural rock feature demonstrating the likely active state of the Tachikawa Fault.
Shame? OK. Defiance? OK. Bemusement? Probably not so OK.
What would have been Professor Sato's reaction to one of his undergrads presenting a paper misidentifying concrete as a natural formation? An "A" for effort?
The pro-nuclear Sankei newspaper has quite reasonably jumped all over the news of Sato's blunder. By the dastardly and utterly fair tactic of reprinting Sato's definitive statements on the activity of faults, including the incredible claim yesterday that the fault under theTotsu Higashidori Nuclear Power Station is "active without any doubt" –- and noting that Sato is a rotating member of the team of experts investigating the seismic faults underlying the nation's nuclear power plants -- it pretty much detonates the credibility of the team's assessments. (Link – J)
Science is about a willingness to make mistakes, with compensatory measures to catch and identify them. As one earthquake fault researcher points out in the Sankei article, "It often happens that there are differences of opinion over whether, at a given location, a fault is there or not. That is why verification from a number of experts is necessary before a judgment can be delivered."
However, lay understanding of science is that years of training and the scientific method winnow out the possibility of making mistakes, especially boneheaded ones like mistaking concrete for rock.
In this instance, it is hard to fault (pun unintended) the lay understanding of how science should work.
As to the decision to make the fully funded Tachikawa Fault investigation into a public spectacle ("When the research site opened to the public in February, more than 10,000 people visited.") -- that just redefines idiocy downward.
Later - Via the offices of The Japan Times comes the Kyodo News version of the debacle. (Link)
Those wanting to throw doubt on the assessments of these seismic experts received a huge gift yesterday:
Fault researcher admits error / Team analyzing Tachikawa geology misidentified material(Link)
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Researchers who surveyed the Tachikawa fault reiterated apologies at a press conference Thursday for errors they made in their analysis.
"We're very sorry for having caused confusion," one researcher said. The team was found to have made such mistakes as erroneously identifying man-made material as rock.
Local governments concerned accepted the development in a coolheaded manner, but told residents to continue preparing for earthquakes that could be caused by the fault.
Prof. Hiroshi Sato of the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute, who wrongly judged the geological structure of the Tachikawa fault, repeatedly apologized for the mistake.
Tatsuya Ishiyama, an assistant professor of the institute who conducted the analysis with Sato, said, "I'm very sorry for causing confusion among local residents and communities."
Regarding the factors that lead to the erroneous judgment, Sato said, "There were artificial materials at a site where I assumed I'd find the fault."
Sato also has engaged in the examination of faults on the grounds of Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Higashidori nuclear power plant, on which a team of examiners compiled a report in February that said it is highly likely they are active faults.
Asked whether he will resign from the research team, Sato said: "If I'm urged to resign for being unqualified, I will quit. But once I accept an appointment, I want to fulfill my responsibilities as a researcher."
As geological experts have predicted that a 7.4-magnitude could strike the Tachikawa fault, killing as many as 2,600 people, residents are highly interested in the research. When the research site opened to the public in February, more than 10,000 people visited.
The central government provided about 100 million yen a year in subsidies for the research, with about 23 million yen already spent on drilling and other work.
The research team said it will restart the analysis using other data such as older geological charts…
Professor Sato did himself no favors at the press conference. From the clips shown on television, his attitude was of bemusement at his misidenfication of the concrete foundations of the former Nissan assembly plant as a natural rock feature demonstrating the likely active state of the Tachikawa Fault.
Shame? OK. Defiance? OK. Bemusement? Probably not so OK.
What would have been Professor Sato's reaction to one of his undergrads presenting a paper misidentifying concrete as a natural formation? An "A" for effort?
The pro-nuclear Sankei newspaper has quite reasonably jumped all over the news of Sato's blunder. By the dastardly and utterly fair tactic of reprinting Sato's definitive statements on the activity of faults, including the incredible claim yesterday that the fault under the
Science is about a willingness to make mistakes, with compensatory measures to catch and identify them. As one earthquake fault researcher points out in the Sankei article, "It often happens that there are differences of opinion over whether, at a given location, a fault is there or not. That is why verification from a number of experts is necessary before a judgment can be delivered."
However, lay understanding of science is that years of training and the scientific method winnow out the possibility of making mistakes, especially boneheaded ones like mistaking concrete for rock.
In this instance, it is hard to fault (pun unintended) the lay understanding of how science should work.
As to the decision to make the fully funded Tachikawa Fault investigation into a public spectacle ("When the research site opened to the public in February, more than 10,000 people visited.") -- that just redefines idiocy downward.
Later - Via the offices of The Japan Times comes the Kyodo News version of the debacle. (Link)
Monday, March 11, 2013
Are You Doing Nothing?
There are two Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power plant meltdown decontamination stories.
The first is the damn serious one of the decontamination of everything in the immediate vicinity of the Fukushima Dai'ichi reactors. (Link)
The second is the farcical cleanup of areas downwind of the plant, with imaginary unsafe dosage levels, the most irregular of irregular workers and of course, organized crime syndicates playing their parts. (Link)
The real secret of the latter cleanup: the best thing to do would be...nothing.
The major components of the windborne contamination were Cesium 134 and Cesium 137. Cesium 134 has a half-life of 2 years; Cesium 137 has a half-life of 30 years.
By doing absolutely nothing, radiation levels have in two years's time dropped by 25% in the affected areas away from the Fukushima Power Station. In another two years, another 13% of the radioactive material will be gone. After the end of 10 years, only 7% of the original amount of Cesium 134 will be left.
Of course, more than half of the Cesium 137 will be remaining in 10 years' time. However, with Cesiuum 137's low rate of decay, radioactivity will fall below concern level in all but the areas in the band running from Futaba on the coast to Iidate in the mountains.
As we know though, doing nothing does not win one votes in democratic elections. The scatterbrained clean up effort also appeals to the ideology of diligence -- that through hard work and determination, one can make the seemingly impossible, possible.
So the show is sure to go on.
The first is the damn serious one of the decontamination of everything in the immediate vicinity of the Fukushima Dai'ichi reactors. (Link)
The second is the farcical cleanup of areas downwind of the plant, with imaginary unsafe dosage levels, the most irregular of irregular workers and of course, organized crime syndicates playing their parts. (Link)
The real secret of the latter cleanup: the best thing to do would be...nothing.
The major components of the windborne contamination were Cesium 134 and Cesium 137. Cesium 134 has a half-life of 2 years; Cesium 137 has a half-life of 30 years.
By doing absolutely nothing, radiation levels have in two years's time dropped by 25% in the affected areas away from the Fukushima Power Station. In another two years, another 13% of the radioactive material will be gone. After the end of 10 years, only 7% of the original amount of Cesium 134 will be left.
Of course, more than half of the Cesium 137 will be remaining in 10 years' time. However, with Cesiuum 137's low rate of decay, radioactivity will fall below concern level in all but the areas in the band running from Futaba on the coast to Iidate in the mountains.
As we know though, doing nothing does not win one votes in democratic elections. The scatterbrained clean up effort also appeals to the ideology of diligence -- that through hard work and determination, one can make the seemingly impossible, possible.
So the show is sure to go on.
Wednesday, January 09, 2013
Someone To Watch Over Me And My Dirt
This New York Times article (Link) on the out-of-all-control Fukushima cleanup is probably making the rounds. Still, I would be in remiss if I were to not to link to the piece.
How can one resist the return of Hata Tsutomuesque nonsense?
However silly, the remark will probably not overly damage Nishiyama's standing in his ministry. Calling Minke whales "the cockroaches of the sea" before an International Whaling Commission meeting made Counselor Komatsu Masayuki a global laughingstock -- but it did not leave him an ostracized pauper. (Link)
Many thanks to reader JM for alerting me to the NYT article.
How can one resist the return of Hata Tsutomuesque nonsense?
Japanese officials said adapting overseas technologies presented a particular challenge.Oh I am sure the journalists responsible for the above probably did not feel themselves the stewards of Nishiyama-san's reputation. But then again, evidently, neither did Nishiyama.
"Even if a method works overseas, the soil in Japan is different, for example," said Hidehiko Nishiyama, deputy director at the environment ministry, who is in charge of the Fukushima cleanup. "And if we have foreigners roaming around Fukushima, they might scare the old grandmas and granddads there."
However silly, the remark will probably not overly damage Nishiyama's standing in his ministry. Calling Minke whales "the cockroaches of the sea" before an International Whaling Commission meeting made Counselor Komatsu Masayuki a global laughingstock -- but it did not leave him an ostracized pauper. (Link)
Many thanks to reader JM for alerting me to the NYT article.
For The Love Of Fukushima
On the 7th, representatives of the Tokyo Olympics committee submitted the Tokyo Metropolitan District's bid for the 2020 Olympics. (Link)
One of the claims made in the bid is that the games will be a celebration of and a contribution to the recovery of the Tohoku from the effects of the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdowns. Considering that the Tokyo Olympics 2.0 would be held eight years from now and almost entirely within a small area inside the TMD, the association with the recovery effort seems a stretch. The proposal has two or perhaps three of the preliminary soccer matches played in Sendai, but otherwise the link between the Olympics and the Tohoku disasters will be tenuous to the point of stimulating nervous laughter.
I had a chance to hear Inose Naoki, now officially the governor of the TMD, offer some more concrete examples of how the TMD was contributing to the Tohoku recovery effort. The TMD has dispatch hundreds of TMD bureaucrats on short stays to help administer the recovering areas (many prefectures are doing this, most prominently Aichi Prefecture) and is training and housing applicants for school teaching positions in the Tohoku.
One of the programs Inose described sounded trivial but was in fact important. The TMD has issued coupons offering discounts on day trips or overnight stays in the Aizu-Wakamatsu area of Fukushima Prefecture. Whilst several towns the coast region of Fukushima are uninhabitable due to the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power station disaster, and vast areas of coastal and central Fukushima are contaminated with nuclear fallout, the interior area around the city of Aizu-Wakamatsu is relatively contamination-free. However, as the region is inside Fukushima Prefecture, the largest of Japan's prefectures, it has seen its tourist visits fall through the floor. Since Aizu-Wakamatsu area was dependent on tourism, the false association with Fukushima Dai'ichi has sledgehammered the local economy.
In the wake of the TMD's efforts to promote a return to the area (for a of slideshow from my one visit to Aizu-Wakamatsu, in 2009, click Here) the national broadcast network NHK has a new Taiga Dorama series, Yae no Sakura, set in Aizu-Wakamatsu. Like most Taiga dramas, the current series, airing every Sunday night for the rest of this year, is strongly tied to local, prefectural and NHK-led national efforts to promote tourism to the locales in which the story takes place.
Learning the lesson brought home by last year's calamitous series on Taira no Kiyomori (one senryu of autumn last year had Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko musing, "No matter how bad my popularity ratings are, they are still better than those for that Taiga Drama series on Taira no Kiyomori...") the main character, like the protagonists of the recent smash hits Atsuhime and Gon...Himetachi no Sengoku is a plucky young female historical figure.
For some reason watching young women fight disdain, prejudice and adversity is more fun than watching middle-aged men sitting around shouting at one another.
Of course, Yae no Sakura takes "plucky" to a whole new level, as the heroine is Yamamoto Yae, the bakumatsu badass with a Spencerrifle carbine who served as a commander in the defense of Aizu-Wakamatsu's castle against the forces of the Meiji government (Link), fighting alongside her estranged first husband. She survives the war, moves to Kyoto and marries Iijima Jo (Joseph Hardy Neesima), the founder of Doshisha University. (Link)
In the NHK depiction, the decidedly nonconformist Yae mutters the Aizu-Wakamatsu motto naranu koto wa naranu mono desu ("that which must not be shall not be") with contemptuous irony.
Not so salutory was private broadcast network TBS' attempt at a costume drama contribution to Aizu-Wakamatsu tourism, Byakkotai. If Yamamoto Yae's story is one to remember, the story of the Byakkotai (White Tiger Company) is a story one wishes everyone would forget. The teenagers of the White Tiger Company managed to make nothing of their brief lives, winning fame only for committing suicide upon the belief, mistaken as it turned, that Aizu-Wakamatsu's castle had fallen to the armies of the Meiji Emperor.
Just to make the already horrid (visiting the reconstructed Aizu-Wakamatsu castle and seeing the large portraits each of the young men under moody lighting makes one ill) story more wretched, TBS made no attempts to hide selfish goal of producing yet another does-the-country-with-its-high-suicide-rate-really-need-yet-another-glorification-of-suicide-as-beautiful-and-brave drama: the promotion of the latest generation of precious jimusho boys and boy band wannabees. (Link)
For the love of Fukushima, give me the girl with the gun!
One of the claims made in the bid is that the games will be a celebration of and a contribution to the recovery of the Tohoku from the effects of the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdowns. Considering that the Tokyo Olympics 2.0 would be held eight years from now and almost entirely within a small area inside the TMD, the association with the recovery effort seems a stretch. The proposal has two or perhaps three of the preliminary soccer matches played in Sendai, but otherwise the link between the Olympics and the Tohoku disasters will be tenuous to the point of stimulating nervous laughter.
I had a chance to hear Inose Naoki, now officially the governor of the TMD, offer some more concrete examples of how the TMD was contributing to the Tohoku recovery effort. The TMD has dispatch hundreds of TMD bureaucrats on short stays to help administer the recovering areas (many prefectures are doing this, most prominently Aichi Prefecture) and is training and housing applicants for school teaching positions in the Tohoku.
One of the programs Inose described sounded trivial but was in fact important. The TMD has issued coupons offering discounts on day trips or overnight stays in the Aizu-Wakamatsu area of Fukushima Prefecture. Whilst several towns the coast region of Fukushima are uninhabitable due to the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power station disaster, and vast areas of coastal and central Fukushima are contaminated with nuclear fallout, the interior area around the city of Aizu-Wakamatsu is relatively contamination-free. However, as the region is inside Fukushima Prefecture, the largest of Japan's prefectures, it has seen its tourist visits fall through the floor. Since Aizu-Wakamatsu area was dependent on tourism, the false association with Fukushima Dai'ichi has sledgehammered the local economy.
In the wake of the TMD's efforts to promote a return to the area (for a of slideshow from my one visit to Aizu-Wakamatsu, in 2009, click Here) the national broadcast network NHK has a new Taiga Dorama series, Yae no Sakura, set in Aizu-Wakamatsu. Like most Taiga dramas, the current series, airing every Sunday night for the rest of this year, is strongly tied to local, prefectural and NHK-led national efforts to promote tourism to the locales in which the story takes place.
Learning the lesson brought home by last year's calamitous series on Taira no Kiyomori (one senryu of autumn last year had Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko musing, "No matter how bad my popularity ratings are, they are still better than those for that Taiga Drama series on Taira no Kiyomori...") the main character, like the protagonists of the recent smash hits Atsuhime and Gon...Himetachi no Sengoku is a plucky young female historical figure.
For some reason watching young women fight disdain, prejudice and adversity is more fun than watching middle-aged men sitting around shouting at one another.
Of course, Yae no Sakura takes "plucky" to a whole new level, as the heroine is Yamamoto Yae, the bakumatsu badass with a Spencer
In the NHK depiction, the decidedly nonconformist Yae mutters the Aizu-Wakamatsu motto naranu koto wa naranu mono desu ("that which must not be shall not be") with contemptuous irony.
Not so salutory was private broadcast network TBS' attempt at a costume drama contribution to Aizu-Wakamatsu tourism, Byakkotai. If Yamamoto Yae's story is one to remember, the story of the Byakkotai (White Tiger Company) is a story one wishes everyone would forget. The teenagers of the White Tiger Company managed to make nothing of their brief lives, winning fame only for committing suicide upon the belief, mistaken as it turned, that Aizu-Wakamatsu's castle had fallen to the armies of the Meiji Emperor.
Just to make the already horrid (visiting the reconstructed Aizu-Wakamatsu castle and seeing the large portraits each of the young men under moody lighting makes one ill) story more wretched, TBS made no attempts to hide selfish goal of producing yet another does-the-country-with-its-high-suicide-rate-really-need-yet-another-glorification-of-suicide-as-beautiful-and-brave drama: the promotion of the latest generation of precious jimusho boys and boy band wannabees. (Link)
For the love of Fukushima, give me the girl with the gun!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
