On A Dark Desert Highway

Yesterday Nagoya Mayor, former Democratic Party of Japan district seat holder and man of questionable taste and judgment Kawamura Takashi (Official Homepage) held a press conference yesterday announcing that having attracted to his Genzei Nippon (Link) movement the number of Diet members necessary to render it a political party eligible for both public election funds and capable of fielding candidates in the proportional list part of the national ballot, he had filed for eligibility and received it.

Nagoya mayor's Genzei Nippon becomes national political party
Kyodo

NAGOYA — Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura's political group Genzei Nippon (Tax Reduction Japan) became a national political party Wednesday.

The party, trying to promote itself ahead of the next Lower House election, which must be held by summer 2013, was able to register on a national level with the government after finally meeting the requirement of having at least five Diet members, including Koki Kobayashi, who will be its head as Kawamura's proxy.

Kawamura, a former lawmaker of the Democratic Party of Japan, aims for the party to field as many candidates as possible in the next House of Representatives election. Its key goals are to oppose tax hikes, phase out nuclear power and halve Diet members' annual salaries.

Kawamura said he is seeking to create "a third and big political force" that can take on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's DPJ and the Liberal Democratic Party, the main opposition party, in the next election by working closely with other small parties, including one to be formed by Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara.

Genzei Nippon was able to be established as a national-level party after Atsushi Kumada and Tomohiko Mizuno, both Lower House members, left the DPJ on Monday and signed up, boosting its Diet members to the required five...

(Link)

According to the Chugoku Shimbun, Kawamura filed the registration materials for full national party status with the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Elections Commission. The TMG Elections Commission, after looking over the materials and seeing nothing out of order, accepted them. The TMG Elections Commission then forwarded to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) notice of its having accepted the application. The Ministry, which is in charge of the disbursal of public election funds to parties based upon the number of Diet members in a party, acknowledged the TMG Elections Commission's having accepted the registration material (Link- J)

Presumably included in the packet of documents Kawamura filed with the TMG Elections Commission were affidavits from the five members of the Diet that they are not members of any other party -- i.e., they will not be double dipping from public funds. House of Representatives members Kumada Atsushi (Osaka District #1) and Mizuno Tomohiko (South Kanto Proportional) did hand in their resignations to DPJ leaders on Monday. Presumably, the affidavits Kumada and Mizuno submitted swear that each is no longer a member of the DPJ.

Kawamura's, Kumada's and Mizuno's document submissions are in the clear, right? The TMG's Elections Commission accepted the applications, did it not? The MIC acknowledged the Elections Commission's findings, so everything is cool, right?

Interestingly enough, the answer is probably "No." Kawamura, Kumada and Mizuno could be on their way to paying hefty fines or even doing jail time for fraud.

Despite its held-together-by-safety-pins image, the DPJ is the Hotel California: You can check out any time you like / But you can never leave. Oh sure, you can leave, but if and only if the relevant party central bureau accepts your resignation. The stipulation is in the DPJ By-laws, under the section marked, "Separating From The Party."

So what happens if the relevant central bureau does not accept your resignation? Funny thing, if you are worth more to the DPJ dead than alive, then the party can keep you dead.

Remember Sugimoto Kazumi? You do not? Well, here is a reminder (Link). Oh right, that guy, the Kennedy School of Government Masters degree holder who on October 5 declared his intent to defect from the DPJ to the Your Party. It was only on October 29 (Monday) that the party board of directors (yakuinkai) announced that they would be sending to the executive council (jonnin kanjikai) their recommendation that Sugimoto be expelled rather than be allowed to resign. Determining that having Sugimoto around was more trouble than his continued dangling in the wind was worth, the executive council took only a few minutes on Tuesday to approve the expulsion recommendation of the board of directors. The executive council's decision was transmitted to the DPJ-Club of Independents-People's New Party caucus, which filed notice of Sugimoto's no longer being a DPJ member with the Office of the House of Representatives. Having received notification that Sugimoto had been sprung, the Your Party caucus registered Sugimoto as one of its own. (Link - J)

From submission of resignation letter to actual registration as a member of new party: 25 days.

Now in the case of Kumada and Mizuno, members of the DPJ directorate decided on October 30 that they will not accept the pair's resignation letters. House of Councillors Secretary-General Ichikawa Yasuo, famous for making the most stupid utterance ever by a Defense Minister (a monumental achievement that) but seemingly a wily politician, wanly mused, "I have this sense that you cannot say that there will be a disposition [of Kumada's and Mizuno's resignations] during the current Diet term."

One indication of how determined the DPJ directorate is to leave Kumada and Mizuno hanging is its decision to not even try to recover from Kumada the 3 million in cash he just received from the party -- all first and second-termers having just received 3 million as an enticement to keep them from bolting for the exits. (Link - J)

Now here is where things start getting really weird.

MIC has acknowledged the TMG Election Commission's determination that Genzei Nippon's application for full-fledged party status is valid. However, MIC will not dispense public funds to Genzei Nippon unless MIC receives from the Office of the House of Representatives and the Office of the House of Councillors a comprehensive list of the members of the party (Link -J). Since the DPJ can out of pure malice postpone a decision on the resignations of Kumada and Mizuno forever (in Kumada's case, the party will at worst wait until twelve days before the House of Representatives' election, this so that the party can register a new candidate to run in Kumada's constituency) the political party Genzei Nippon will exist at MIC but not exist in the respective Offices of the Diet...and since MIC will not receive from the respective Offices the necessary documents regarding Kumada's and Mizuno's membership in a party called Genzei Nippon, MIC will not be able to disburse public election funds to Genzei Nippon, a party that by its own records, is eligible for public funds.

However, the twists do not stop there. Since Kumada and Mizuno presumably submitted to the TMG Elections Commission signed affidavits swearing that they are no longer members of the DPJ, the DPJ could either file lawsuits (unlikely, as lawsuits take months if not years to resolve themselves) or police complaints claiming the pair have filed false documents. If the DPJ is in a particularly foul mood at Kawamura, a former party member, for poaching Kumada and Mizuno, it can file a complaint against Kawamura as well, for knowingly submitting false affidavits as a part of his proto-party's application to the TMG Elections Commission.

Kumada and Mizuno, who are both dumber than a sack of hammers...

[You want proof? Take a visit to Kumada's profile page from his official website (Link). Yes, this is the curriculum vitae of a 41 year-old male, graduate of Kyoto University's Faculty of Law, former employee of Mitsubishi Electric and district seat holder in the House of Representatives.

As for Mizuno, nominally a proportional seat holder from the South Kanto Bloc but in reality the Diet Member for Dentistry, this is his second attempted defection to Genzei Nippon. In early September he was outed as one of the Diet members Kawamura was wooing to join to his movement. Kawamura even scheduled a press conference to announce Mizuno's departure from the DPJ. Mizuno, however, lost his nerve and called off the announcement. (Link - J)]

...are probably not aware of how much trouble they are in. Kawamura might be aware of just how perilous his submission of documents was. He is, however, nuttier than a pecan pie (Recall that in February he told a delegation of visitors from Nagoya's sister city of Nanjing that the Nanjing Massacre was not as bad as they say) and reckless enough to not care.

Ichikawa's musing about the DPJ deferring action after the end of the Diet session is likely a portent of a vicious comeuppance for the the pair, who had the temerity (or thanks to a generous bribe, an obligation) to submit their resignations on the morning of the opening of the Extraordinary Session, when their acts would cast the greatest shadow possible on Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko. The end of the Diet session means the end of Kumada's and Mizuno's immunity from prosecution (Constitution of Japan, Article 50).


Later - A section of this text has been edited for clarity and accuracy.

Six New Fredos

Fredo, you're nothing to me now. You're not a brother, you're not a friend. I don't want to know you or what you do.

- Michael Corleone, The Godfather, Part II (1974)

On Friday, six Democratic Party of Japan members of the House of Councillors voted against the ittai kaikaku reform bills, including the bill raising the consumption tax. These six defectors are new, not a part of the 12 DPJ members who left the party to join Ozawa Ichiro's People's Life First Party (33 days since its founding and still no party website) or the 3 who left to form the Green Wind caucus.

The six are:

Tokunaga Eri (Hokkaido district seat, elected in 2010)
Mito Masashi (Kanagawa district seat, elected in 2007)
Uematsu Emiko (Kagawa district seat, elected 2007)
Okubo Yukishige (Nagasaki district seat, elected 2007)
Arita Yoshibu (proportional list seat, elected 2010)
Tashiro Kaoru (proportional list seat, elected 2010)

Mito, Uematsu and Okubo face reelection next year,. The other members are in for the long haul. Like House of Representatives member Kawauchi Hiroshi, all six really belong inside the LF. However, they are far more useful to Ozawa as fifth columnists inside the DPJ. Through them he can still influence DPJ policies, even though he himself is no longer inside the DPJ.

The six cannot be expelled or even severely reprimanded. After the defections to the LF and the Green Wind in July, the DPJ is left with 85 members in its House caucus, only one member more than the Liberal Democratic Party. Were the six traitors of Friday to leave the DPJ, the party would fall to the #2 rank in the House, losing the majority of committee chairmanships and most likely the position of President of the House.

Ozawa knows the DPJ's loss of control of the House's chairmanships would eliminate his ability to influence politics. It should surprise no one that he has his acolytes remain inside the DPJ House of Councillors caucus.

Speaking of disobedience, the LDP has decided upon the punishments to be meted out to the seven of its members of its House of Representatives delegation who defied orders to abstain from voting on the no confidence motion against the Noda Cabinet. The seven will receive reprimands, the second strongest of the eight levels of punishment the party can mete out to its members. (J)

This slap on the wrist is surprising, as one of the sinners, Nakagawa Hidenao, was served with a six-month suspension of all party privileges for having abstained from the June House of Representatives vote on the consumption tax.

The leadership had solid reasons to be lenient. The participation of Shiozaki Yasuhisa in the mini-mutiny was a transparent threat of a greater hard-right rebellion against Machimura faction leader Machimura Nobutaka for his milquetoast leadership and his support of LDP president Tanigaki Sadakazu. A severe punishment could also push Koizumi Shinjiro to run in the next election as an independent, an outcome the LDP is desperate to avoid. Koizumi the Younger (Koizumi IV) is, as Okumura Jun has put it, the LDP’s Chosen One, the prophesied future leader of the party.

It would furthermore be the height of hypocrisy for the LDP to punish the seven for voting for a no confidence motion only a day after Tanigaki and the LDP leadership abandoned plans to submit their own no confidence motion.

So the six DPJ House of Councillors and the seven LDP House of Representatives members, traitors to the party line each and every one, are virtually untouchable.

The weak responses by both the party leaderships presages further breakdowns in party discipline. An inability to get a straight answer from the LDP will endanger Prime Minister Noda’s plan to squeeze the LDP into voting for the bill authorizing the issuance of new bonds. The LDP leadership is eager for a quick deal on a redistricting bill – a necessity as the dissolution of the House and the calling for new elections would plunge the country into an irrevocable extra-constitutional state. However, if the LDP cannot guarantee party unity on the bond bill, it is of little use to the DPJ as a negotiating partner.

Of course, what can be said of the LDP applies equally, if not more so, to the DPJ. True to the nature of its former leader Ozawa, who recruited the majority of the DPJ’s serving Diet members, party members seem to have only the weakest of understandings of the fundamental importance of loyalty to the party. Disagreements over policy have thus led to a splintering of the party, not along the ideological lines the pundits predicted three years ago, but on the degree of loyalty to Ozawa the person.

Later - This post has been edited for clarity.

He Did It

That is the takeaway for this weekend.

Decades ago this blessed land's bureaucrats and the research arm of the Liberal Democratic Party established that government finances faced a demographic wall, where the European-style social welfare benefits and United States-levels of taxation would collide with a wave of retirees, necessitating either:

1) mass privatization of government functions

2) reversals in the promises made to the citizens

3) higher taxation

4) potentially hyper-inflationary levels of government indebtedness, or

5) a combination of the above.

The solution the bureaucrats and the LDP proposed was a consumption tax, with an initial target rate of 10%.

It has taken thirty years to walk the walk from realization to realization. At least three prime ministers have had their heads handed to them over the tax, first for the imposition of a nominal 3% tax, then for each step of the march up to 10%.

However, on Friday, with every political instinct and a slug of economic analysis pulling in the opposite direction, Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko managed to drag an opposition-controlled House of Councillors over the goal line.

The political costs have been enormous. Noda will most likely be rewarded, as he should be, with reelection as party president in September. However, he will preside over a much diminished Democratic Party of Japan, over 60 members of which have decamped in one way or another over the consumption tax. The Cabinet's and the DPJ's opinion polling numbers are in the cellar, with an election looming.

One can hate the raising of the consumption tax...and a lot of folks do, for reasons both intellectually sound and transparently selfish.

However, one cannot, no, one must not deny the bravery and tenacity of the prime minister, who sacrificed political blood and capital his party could not spare. When all the sirens are singing sweet songs about how cheaply the government can borrow money, Noda and his wounded party have sent a signal to the holders of Japan's bonds that the government of this blessed land will make good upon its debts through a willingness to both inflict pain and accept annihilation.

Rushing Forward With No Confidence

On Sunday, I put forth the proposition that Koizumi Shinjiro's visit to Liberal Democratic Party headquarters accelerated LDP moves toward submitting either a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet or a censure motion against prime minister Noda Yoshihiko. Koizumi, walking very much in his father's footsteps and also reflecting his long stint in Washington, has become the face of the free market/low tax wing of the LDP, especially since The Big Man, Nakagawa Hidenao, has been put on ice.

In pushing a plant to threaten the PM with a no-confidence motion or censure, Koizumi was also the representative of the members of the LDP who had resigned themselves to the June 15 three-way LDP, the New Komeito and Democratic Party of Japan agreement to vote for consumption tax bill in both Houses of the Diet. Not a few in the LDP were sure the consumption tax issue would lead to the breakup of the DPJ.

The controversy over the raising of the consumption tax did indeed lead to a breakup, with Ozawa Ichiro leading his followers out of the DPJ. However, to the disappointment of those who thought the breakup would result in the DPJ-led coalition losing its majority in the House of Representatives, Ozawa led out of the DPJ only about half of the legislators purportedly under his influence -- well short of the number of rebels needed to transform the DPJ-led coalition into a minority government.

When Koizumi and his six youthful fellow LDP members bullrushed the office of the LDP party president, however, they were pushing on an open door. LDP president Tanigaki Sadakazu has known that in order for him to win reelection in the party presidential election in September, he had to have something to show for his first term.

He had to foment a crisis, and in this month.

The dispute over the date of the House of Councillors vote on the consumption tax was too small potatoes for this purpose, at first glance. The LDP proposed to have the vote on the 10th; the DPJ and Prime Minister, wanting delay action in the Diet so that they might cut deals on legislation with Tanigaki's successor, proposed a vote on the 20th.

The DPJ offer was only an initial bargaining position, though. The party's negotiators, in talks with LDP and New Komeito representatives, indicated the August 10th date was acceptable. (J)

Taken aback, the LDP violated all normal negotiating procedures and proposed a vote on the 8th -- a counter proposal to which the DPJ, while indulging in the requisite amount of whining at the LDP's duplicity, agreed to yesterday. (J)

Of course, in the meantime, in the face of the DPJ's violent accommodation to every one of the LDP's wishes, the LDP presented a further demand -- that Prime Minister Noda make a public commitment (kakuyaku) to dissolve the Diet after the House of Councillors vote on the consumption tax legislation. Otherwise the LDP would submit either a no-confidence motion or a censure motion or both.

The Prime Minister, who if anything is calm and controlled in his responses, told the LDP yesterday that the dissolution of the Diet was his problem, the timing of which was up to him and nobody else (J). A seemingly now hysterical LDP leadership responded by vowing to go through with its threatened submission of a no-confidence motion or a censure motion today, and to renege on the June 15 agreement. (J)

It is a rare thing when the representatives of a small religious party have to pay a visit to the headquarters of a large secular party in order to tell the secular party "Calm down or else." Nevertheless, that is what leaders of the LDP's longtime ally the New Komeito, their faces grim, had to do last night (J). Presumably they explained to their LDP counterparts that if an election were held, the LDP-New Komeito alliance would lack a majority in either House of the Diet -- and that no third party would cut any deals on passage of legislation with an LDP that has a history of backing out of major, signed agreements.

So all by indications, Tanigaki has triggered the political crisis he needed. Unfortunately, it seems to be leading to his own private Waterloo, rather than the overthrow of the Noda government he has desired.


Later - This post has been edited for clarity.

One Point Of Light To Look For In The Murk

Today is likely to be rough day in Japanese politics.

Ozawa Ichiro is going to unveil his new political party, provisionally named "The People's Livelihood Comes First" Party (Michael Penn has provided a very convenient shorthand: "The Livelihood Party"). At this writing, the Livelihood Party will burst onto the scene with 49 Diet members: 37 from the House of Representatives and 12 from the House of Councillors (J).

All in all, 51 members of the DPJ have left the fold since July 2. The most recent defector is Yonenaga Harunobu, a Hatoyama Group member, who turned in his resignation papers on July 6. As Yonenaga is a House of Councillors member, his leaving the party over the consumption tax bill prior to the vote on that bill represents an embarrassing loss of face for the Democratic Party of Japan. However, Yonenaga, a district seat holder from Yamanashi, has chosen to serve, at least for now, as an independent, lessening the impact of his departure.

It will surprise no one if Yonenaga shows up at the meeting this evening introducing the establishment of the Livelihood Party. Almost certain to be in attendance will be fellow DPJ defector turned independent, Zukeran Chobin, as he made clear on his blog yesterday he will be caucusing with the Livelihood Party. (J)

It will also surprise no one if the entire membership of the Kizuna shows up at the meeting, with Kizuna leader Uchiyama Akira announcing his party's merger with the Livelihood Party. With Ozawa now out of the DPJ, Kizuna's raison d'être has evaporated.

With Kizuna's nine members and the cooperation of Zukeran and the three former DPJ members in Shinto Daichi, Ozawa will have 50 sure votes in the House of Representatives, one short of the 51 he needs to table a no-confidence motion against the Noda Cabinet.

Which makes moves of one sure guest at the unveiling unfortunately significant.

Former DPJ party leader Hatoyama Yukio has, through his behavior in the last week, transformed himself from DPJ-co-founder-yet-Ozawa-puppet into a DINO - a Democrat In Name Only. On June 26 he voted against the consumption tax bill, for which he was smacked on July 3 with a six-month suspension of party privileges. He complained about this punishment, with some party members suggesting that slapping a 6 month penalty on Hatoyama while hitting other opponents to the bill with two months suspensions was disproportionate. In a gesture that Hatoyama should have accepted graciously, the party central secretariat reduced his suspension to only three months on July 9.

Ever able to miss seize an opportunity to miss an opportunity*, Hatoyama, already in the hottest of water for boasting that he and his followers held the casting votes should there be a move to depose the Noda Cabinet through a no confidence motion (J), piled it on yesterday, saying not that he did not see why he deserved to be disciplined but -- and I am not making this up:

"There is an extremely insulting phrase making its way around. The phrase is 'the LDP's Noda Faction'."

Typically gutless in its presentation -- "It's not what I am saying, mind you. It's what I have heard, that's all" -- Hatoyama's insult is grounds for the imposition of a full year's suspension.

Except, of course, doing anything to Hatoyama right now will provide a pretext for him and perhaps a smattering of his followers to leave the DPJ, magnifying the impact of today's unveiling of the Ozawa party.

As it is, the leadership will likely sit tight-lipped, seeing whether or not Hatoyama has the wherewithal to actually quit the DPJ. He will be a prominent guest at the unveiling today -- but unless he actually shows up at Secretary-General Koshi'ishi Azuma's office with resignation papers in hand, he is just tossing out his usual b------t, using Harry Frankfurt's definition for the kinds of noises Hatoyama makes.

The one person whose attendance will really matter, if it happens, will be Fukuda Eriko. I have highlighted her before. However, rather than just being an Ozawa Girl, she has been the brains and conscience of the anti-consumption tax movement. She considered not voting on the bill, for she saw the fight over the consumption tax shifting from being a struggle over policy (seiji) to struggle over power (seikyoku), with the only beneficiary being the opposition Liberal Democratic Party. In a last minute change of heart she voted against the bill, thinking "I may not be reelected. But unless I commit myself now to the cause, I will regret it the rest of my life." (J)

Fukuda received the same two month suspension as the other DPJ members other than Hatoyama who voted against the consumption tax bill. She had, however, voted with the government on the establishment of a national commission to debate the minimum pension and other social welfare programs, while voting down the unneeded bill on the merger of the nation's kindergartens and day care centers - making her one of only two DPJ members to vote this conscientious way.

Though only 31 years old, an Ozawa pick and a first-termer, Fukuda is one rebel to whom the DPJ and Prime Minister Noda must pay attention and, if they are smart, total respect.

If Fukuda shows up at tonight's unveiling, the indication will be that the DPJ is in serious, serious trouble.

-----------------------------------------------
* A borrowing of Abba Eban's famous exasperated characterization of his Arab counterparts.

Very Kind Of Them #12

The good folks at the East Asia Forum have taken a long-winded, meandering stem-winder of an essay, distilled it to its essentials, and posted the result on their website:

Ozawa’s departure, the revival of the DPJ and the future of Japan

They have also very kindly provided a link to all my EAF contributions:

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/author/michael-cucec/

as well as an RSS feed:

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/author/michael-cucec/rss

For a completely different take on the resignations, please read Aurelia George Mulgan's EAF essay of July 3:

Can Ichiro Ozawa repeat history in Japan?

especially the final paragraphs, where Dr. Mulgan identifies the crucial difference between this Ozawa-led breakup of a party and all his previous ones: this time, he is not the one walking away with the cash.

Will the DPJ Betray Its Constituents?

Short Answer: "Yes. "

Slightly Less Short Answer: "Yes -- by definition."

Long Answer: The Democratic Party of Japan has two routes to power.

One route is to take on the trappings of the traditional LDP, rely on promises of fiscal support to interest groups in the over-represented rural districts and the reversal of the market-based reforms of the Koizumi years, eke out enough wins in rural, suburban and urban districts to become the majority party in the House of Representatives, then cement its victory by doling out political patronage to the rural districts from out of the economic surpluses generated in the party's tradition strongholds in the urban and suburban areas, thereby seriously compromising the DPJ's longtime identity but leaving the electoral map undisturbed.

The other route is to take on the trappings of the traditional LDP, cobbling together enough angry anti-establishment, anti-market-based reform votes possible to eke out enough wins in rural, suburban and urban districts to become the majority party in the House of Representatives, then immediately turn its back on the rural districts (many of the party's rural representatives will be freshmen, by definition--and thus expendable, by definition) passing legislation eliminating and consolidating many rural electoral districts and multiplying suburban and urban ones - all this being done out of the noble intent of "eliminating disparities in the relative voting strength of the citizens" ("ippyō no kakusa") - transforming the electoral map without seriously compromising the DPJ's longtime identity.

In order to win a majority of seats in the next election, the DPJ must compromise on its traditions and ideals. However, to cement its electoral victory -- to make the victory reproducible - the DPJ must make permanent changes to either itself or to the electoral map.

Yesterday, in an agreement with the New People's Party, the DPJ agreed to alter its election manifesto on the issue of postal reform. Under the new formula, the DPJ will call for revision of the Koizumi era laws privatizing and splitting up the post office's many functions.

In return, the DPJ - New People's Party alliance hopes to receive the votes of the members of the National Special Postmen's Association (Zenkoku Yūbinkyokuchōkai, or Zentoku, for short). Party leader Ozawa Ichirō and New People's Party leader Watanuki Tamisuke had dinner on Wednesday night with Zentoku president Urano Osamu.

Aha, so it is the DPJ's traditional identity that is getting the chop!

Not so fast.

First, technically, the DPJ had no input in the reforms of the post office enacted after the LDP's landslide victory in the 2005 House of Representatives elections. The reforms were the handiwork of Prime Minister and LDP President Koizumi Jun'ichirō. By modifying its stand on postal reform, the DPJ is merely changing its opinion of an LDP-instigated reform.

Second, cloning the LDP in order to beat the LDP is a one-shot deal. When the citizens find out that handing Ozawa Ichirō and the Democrats power does not lead to a new, different style of governance, they will toss the DPJ out on the street in the very next House of Representatives election, including and especially many of the party's core leaders.

Not a good thing, especially for the party's core leaders.

The better, more Machiavellian strategy will be to betray the party's newest supporters in the rural areas (and the revived alliance with the People's New Party) not the party's base in the cities and suburbs. New supporters will be fickle and untrustworthy anyway - they had until so very recently been the supporters of another party. Sacrificing their interests in favor of the "nation as a whole" will be easy. (Sacrificing the alliance with the People's New Party, which petulantly suspended cooperation with the Democrats over the nomination of Ikeo Kazuhito to the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, will be even easier.)

The Democratic Party will also almost certainly promise to take good care of the Diet members whose electoral districts are marked for elimination ("A nice new Kanagawa single seat district with ocean fronting, perhaps? What's not to like?")

Are the Democrats duplicitous enough to pull this off? The strongest indication of that the answer is "Yes" came in June when House of Councillors Speaker Eda Satsuki (a Democrat, though officially non-aligned for appearances' sake) very quietly asked the House of Councillors Reform Conference (San'in kaikaku kyogikai) to look into the reapportionment of House Councillors district and regional bloc seats in order to rectify the huge disparities in between the voting strengths of the least populated and most populated prefectures.

Now such a reform of the voting strength disparities in the House of Councillors (at their worst, up to 5 times - meaning that the votes of some citizens are worth 1/5 the votes of others) has been a longtime topic of House of Councillors deliberations.

It has also been, for an equally long time, something of a parlor game. In some publications the member of the House of Councillors are called "Senators," and that is not a bad description. Like the United States Senate or the senates in other republics, the House of Councillors is not supposed to proportionally represent populations. Representing populations proportionately is the job of the House of Representatives.

(Whether the Diet's House of Representatives actually does this is another question...a question whose answer is "No.")

Indeed, by not reflecting proportional voting patterns, the House of Councillors--when it is operating according to its constitutional ideals--is supposed to function as a brake on populism.

(Hello, Twisted Diet!)

So if the apportionment of House of Councillors seats does not necessarily have to be representative to be constitutionally useful, then what is Eda (who is no dummy) up to?

Could it be that apportioning more House of Councillors seats to the urbane and suburbane prefectures (the most likely reform proposal--because one cannot cut the number of Councillors in a prefecture below two) is a dry run for a similar reform in the House of Representatives? Fighting voting strength inequality in a House the DPJ already controls will be giving the DPJ not only the experience in how to conduct a revolutionary reform of a Diet House--but the moral authority to do the same to a House it does not yet control?

Perhaps...

It would certainly open the way for transforming a cobbled-together, skin-of-one's-teeth, promising-the-moon, fundamentally dishonest election victory into a secure, possibly permanent Democratic Party majority in the House of Representatives.

Unless, of course, some one points out to everyone Ozawa and the Democrats cannot possibly fulfill the promises they are making.

Right, Maehara-san?

Sign of the Apocalypse - Parallel Developments

In what can only be described as an act demonstrating that all LDP internal discipline has collapsed, 50 zōhangumi (opponents of reform) legislators, including those returned from expulsion like Noda Seiko, gathered yesterday for the first meeting of the Postal Business Study Society (Yūsei Jigyō Kenkyūkai).

Attending the meeting as a guest was the chairman of the National Association of Private Postmasters - the Zenkoku Tokutei Yūbinkyoku Chōkai -- or Zentoku, for short.

T'is the sign of an LDP upon the brink.

Can it be less than a year and a half ago that Noda and her fellow exiles were readmitted to the party after lengthy and bitter discussions between the then Secretary-General Nakagawa Hidenao (Nakagawa the Sane) and unbending dead ender Hiranuma Takeo? Each of the eleven returnees signed a letter confessing a personal error in having opposed post office privatization and swearing allegiance to the new party line on postal reform.

Now they are meeting with the chairman of Zentoku, discussing legislation to modify the postal reform plan.

If this does not drive Koizumi Jun'ichirō, Nakagawa Hidenao and other reformers into paroxysms over the LDP's abandonment of the banner of reform--I do not know what will.

Which makes yesterday's other announcement all the more salient.