Another North Korean Success Story

It is difficult to see what, if any, successes North Korea can secure out of its current course of actions. The unilateral withdrawal from the armistice, the positioning of large missiles mounted on mobile launchers, declaration of U.S. targets and targets around the Pacific, and the closure of Kaesong all seem to injure the North’s negotiating position.

Let us assume, therefore, that a Musudan rocket/missile firing, or a double shot, is not being prepared with the intent to eke some advantage out of successful test launches. Let us assume instead that the primary goal is failure – that the DPRK government or some part of it wants the U.S. and its allies to shoot the Musudans down.

What would be the ideal scenario, for all the interested parties?

At some point just around 10:00 a.m. a Musudan missile is fired from a location on North Korea's west coast. Assuming the missile flies – which is a question (Link) -- it climbs up into the sky and veers south-southeast.

The U.S. government is momentarily stunned by the launch, the known missile having being spotted on North Korea’s east coast. Given the prior North Korean threats of attacks on Okinawa and Guam and the surprise of a west coast launch, the order is given for a shoot down. By previous agreement, a U.S. Arleigh Burke class missile destroyer, with a Japanese Kongo class destroyer providing assistance, takes the first shot with its SM-3 missiles.

The North Korean missile is intercepted and falls in pieces over the East China Sea and Eastern Pacific.

The national security councils of affected nations are assembled. In Tokyo, the Cabinet is convened (luckily it was a Tuesday/Friday morning).

From Pyongyang – silence.

An hour and 15 minutes later, a second Musudan, the known one on North Korea's east coast, launches, with a course nearly due east. With missile's course taking it over Honshu and in the direction of the United States, the conditions are met for a Japanese shoot down. The Kirishima, a Kongo-class destroyer, in cooperation with a U.S. destroyer, fires an SM-3.

The intercept is again successful with the pieces of this second missile falling into the North Pacific.

Now it is the allies turn to fall silent, as they wait, on hair trigger, for what the North Koreans do next.

What the North Koreans do next is…nothing. Instead, inside Pyongyang, all hell is breaking loose, with the various ministries, offices and commands all yelling at each other, urging to further escalate, to pull back, to sue for peace, to demand total war, to flee to shelters…setting the stage for the young prince, wise beyond his years, to declare the prevailing war policy laudable in spirit but misguided and insufficient in practice – requiring a new way of thinking and acting.

Unclear

Oche, who raised me to love the English language though it was not his native tongue, had a pithy dismissal: "Unclear on the Concept."

That is all I can say when I read Ron Huisken's latest posting to the East Asian Forum, “North Korea's nuclear test." (Link)

Huisken identifies regime security as the DPRK's goal in its nuclear test program. He then suggests that what the other five members of the Six Party Talks should not do is offer the North Koreans regime security.

Huh?

This would be the course of action if the goal were the confusion of the North Koreans.

Would it not be better to get the North Koreans to understand something, namely that

1) they can continue to pursue the goal of a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile, only

2) it is pointless, as no one in the region has a desire to topple the DPRK regime and

3) if they continue their pursuit of this goal, they will end up utterly cut off from the rest of humankind?

The decision as to whether the Stalinist Kim dynastic state lingers on or is replaced should be left up to the North Koreans, based upon their own calculations of national and personal interest.

To be fair, Huisken at least frames his issues correctly and believes in his answers. Sadly, these minimal decencies are too much for some published commentators.

Holding The Line In North Korea

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's detonation of a nuclear test device on Tuesday caught folks off guard. The test itself was, of course, not unexpected -- the preparations having been visible from space for weeks. Not inexplicable either was the timing of the test -- just hours before President Barack Obama's State of the Union Address, where an act of North Korean defiance would have maximum impact on the U.S. national conversation, and a safe few days before the anniversary of the birth of leader Kim Jong-un's father, Kim Jong-il (a.k.a., the Day of the Shining Star).

As for the detonation, my feelings are congratulatory -- as in "Congratulations, DPRK. You have replicated the technological sophistication of the United States of the late 1940s, at the cost of only the loss of membership in the family of humankind and most of the basic necessities of human life."

In order to keep a sense of proportion about the North Korean regime, one needs to adopt an attitude of sad resignation. Fearful of the outside world and of each other, the North Koreans pursue a weapons capability with the very reasonable goal of putting their enemies at a risk level equal to the one the DPRK faces. Of course, each step in the direction of such a capability boxes the leadership in more and more. Eventually the DPRK will produce, Amaterasu knows when, a nuclear-tipped long-range ballistic missile. What is certain is by that time they do they will be working on it by candlelight, chewing on leather for the flavor.

Japan and its U.S. ally are demanding a reversal of the programs building toward a North Korean nuclear-tipped ICBM. Given the fundamental insecurity of the DPRK regime, both on psychological and politico-economic grounds, such demands are ludicrous. The best anyone could hope for is a suspension of ongoing research & development -- and the only way that could happen would be if all in the United States collectively declared themselves utterly terrified by the awesome capabilities of the mighty and legitimate Kim regime.

Of course, for reasons of both politics and sanity, the United States cannot play the role of the elephant terrified of the mouse. Instead the U.S. plays the role of the exasperated adult, scolding the misbehaving child:

"...the Government of North Korea should abandon and dismantle its provocative ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs, cease its proliferation activities, and come into immediate compliance with all United Nations Security Council resolutions and its commitments under the 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks"

Yes, the DRPK should do these things, in order that the world might be more convenient for a hyperpower with a short attention span. Funny thing, though, the leaders of the DPRK will not do what they should, and moreover would not be leaders for very long if they did.

My thinking on the need for greater realism as to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs is best reflected in the recent essay by Dr. Muthiah Alagappa, "North Korean Nuclear Test: Implications for Asian Security," published by PacNet (no URL for the essay yet - but the PacNetters assure me that there will be one soon). At the same time, I am sympathetic to the Nth country problem outlined by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis in his essay "Friends with Benefits" published by Foreign Policy last week (Link -- the South Koreans did what in 2000?!?). Indeed, I am on record at the same publication for concern pre-election about Japan's capacity to become a Nth nation, a view which earned me the scorn, probably deserved, of Dr. Michael Green. (Link)

And the above image? It is a shot through the glass at the Perry Hall in Kurihama (Link - J) of an 1854 woodcut showing a fearful and tear-stained Commodore Matthew C. Perry and his similarly awe-stricken and crying officers cringing in terror as they present a letter from U.S. king Millard Fillmore to the mighty magistrate (bugyo) of Uraga.

When it comes to surrealist, seemingly delusional misrepresentations of one's country's stature in international affairs (Link) pretty much everyone's been there, done that.

Just remember what happened to the bakufu that greenlighted the above representation of Japan's place in the world.

Leftovertures

Bits and pieces of popular culture examining politics, left over from the end of the year.

More from the Kohaku Uta Gassen

I have already posted one panel from Sato Masaaki's review of the year in politics as performances in the annual New Year's Eve Kohaku Uta Gassen ("Red-White Song Battle" - Link). To the collection I will add two more.

For the myriad AKB48 fans out there, here is the bouncy but mournful song of the eight Noda Cabinet ministers who lost their Diet seats in the December 16 election debacle.

The original is AKB48's iconic hit "Aitakatta" (Link-YouTube - yes, there seems to have been a time when Akimoto Yasushi had no money). However, instead of singing aitakatta ("I wanted to meet you") the defenestrated cabinet ministers sing a-itakatta ("Whoa! That hurt!").

For fans of more traditional forms of music by and for children, we have Kim Jong-eun warbling about his December Surprise:

Unha ga tonda
Firipin made tonda
Firipin made tonde
Seiko shite ochita
Hinan kaze fuku na
Unha o tobaso

"The Un-ha has flown
It flew all the way to the Philippines.
Having flown to the Philippines,
It was a success and fell to earth.
Wind of criticism do not blow!
Let us loft the Unh-ha!"

The original is "Soap Bubble" (Shabon dama), a nursery song by Noguchi Ujo (1882-1945). It goes:

Shabon dama tonda
Yane made tonda.
Yane made tonde
Kowarete kieta.
Kaze, kaze fuku na.
Shabon dama tobaso.

"The soap bubble has flown.
It flew all the way to the roof.
Having flown all the way to the roof,
it burst apart and disappeared.
Wind! Wind! Do not blow!
Let's loft soap bubbles."

Here is a very old recording of the children of the Kobari Elementary School (Niigata Prefecture) singing "Shabon dama" in its full length version. (Link - YouTube)


Senryu of December 22, 2013

This one is already two weeks old...but the sentiment still holds, hopeless as it is.

国会の
前に立てたい
右折禁止

Kokkai no
Mae ni tatetai
Usetsu kinshi

I would like to put up
In front of the Diet
"No Right Turn Allowed"

- Sakamaki Katsumi, Hino City

On with the New Year!

The Aristocrats

Abe Shinzo - Prime Minister. Was Prime Minister.　Grandfather was Prime Minister, Father was Foreign Minister.

Aso Taro - Finance amd Minister. Was Prime Minister. Grandfather was Prime Minister. Father was politician and mining/cement magnate.

Park Geun-hye - President-elect of South Korea. Father was president and dictator.

Kim Jong-eun - Leader of North Korea. Grandfather was Great Leader. Father was Dear Leader. Trophy singer wife.

Xi Jinping - General-Secretary of the Communist Party of China. Father was Vice-Premier. Trophy singer wife. Family purportedly insanely wealthy. (Link)

1) Do you think these guys could put their heads together and cook up a fine simulation of international relations and domestic politics in order to keep us occupied/entertained and themselves in power forever?

2) What's up with Ma Ying-cheou?

3) Yes, I am ignoring Benigno Aquino III. I do not know why. I guess I still love the Lady in Yellow.

The Atlantic Needs To Try Harder

Someone writing about Chongryon (in J. Chosen soren). Neat!

Not so neat.

The Strange Rise and Fall of North Korea's Business Empire in Japan
The Atlantic

Armin Rosen

Since its 1950s founding, a Pyongyang-linked group called Chongyron has run everything from banks to newspapers, pushing propaganda out and pulling hard currency in. But now that's ending.

It's been a big couple of weeks for North Korea's 29-year-old dictator. Kim Jong Un appointed himself titular head of the country's military last week and took his marriage public on Tuesday. But amid the celebrating, Kim's Stalinist regime suffered a little-reported setback on the other side of the Sea of Japan. At a time when North Korea is as desperate as ever for hard currency, one of its few reliable generators -- and one of its few links to the outside world -- has gone broke, likely ending the bizarre but significant half-century history of Japan's once-formidable North Korea lobby.

In late June, a Japanese court ordered Chongryon, a business, education, and banking organization formally representing pro-North Korean members of Japan's ethnic Korean minority, to auction off its ten-story office building in downtown Tokyo, effectively ending its mission of bringing money into North Korea and pushing propaganda out. The group's problems are essentially financial: Chongryon owes the Japanese government nearly $750 million for a late-90s emergency bailout that rescued the group's network of credit unions, which were rapidly de-capitalized because of remittances to North Korea during the country's devastating mid-90s famine, an economic and humanitarian catastrophe that killed up to 2 million people...

(Link)

The author talks to Kong-do Oh, who is as knowledgeable a person as there is about what has gone on in North Korea, what is going on there, and about those who have either escaped from or are passing in and out of that country.

The author talks to Michael Green, getting Dr. Green to wax anti-Liberal Democratic Party over the Tanaka-Takeshita Faction's embrace of the DPRK and its Japan-based operatives and operations.

But why must all good things come to an end? Why does the author...

- claim that Korean residents of Japan suffer discrimination even today, offering as evidence an inoffensive but informative Minoru Matsutani article on the new foreign registration law (E)? The Matsutani article makes no a claim of discrimination, unless you consider the convenience of going to the local ward or municipal office for one's new foreign registration card, as the non-naturalized have always done, discrimination. Of course the law discriminates, but not in a pejorative sense.

- state that Koreans of the two nations of the Peninsula make up the largest group of foreign residents of Japan? That status belongs to the Chinese (J). This has been the case for several years now.

- provides as a reference for Chongryon's use of pachinko parlors as as main funding mechanism a page from an aggregator "Japan stuff" website that does not even once make such a claim? What there is on the linked page is a further link to the website of an anonymous British blogger who makes this claim, without supporting evidence.

- quote the English-language page of a North Korea friendship organization as the source for numbers of Chongryon's members at the height of the organization's wealth and influence?

The fall of Chongryon over the government's bailout of its credit unions should be a fascinating tale. However, this is not the article to read about it.

How this rubbish slipped past the editors at The Atlantic is beyond me.


Later - The need to run an errand prevented me from noting the caption to the seven-year old file photo accompanying the article. You will love it; I am sure. Just click on the below image for a larger view.

The operatically minded have to ask: what has made Rosen so cavalier?

I'll Have Two Orders of Kimchi And An Alphorn, Please

Over at Global Talk 21, the perspicacious Okumura Jun has noted a peculiar deviation in the northern of the two Koreas: the complete junking of the Confucian commandment, observed by Kim Jong-il after the death of his father, of a 3+ year period of mourning. (Link)

A lot of really weird stuff has been happening in the DPRK of late -- press availabilities at supposedly super-secret rocket launch sites, non-testing of atomic devices, the reinvitation of Kim Jong-il's Japanese chef back to Pyongyang, the unlicensed Disney characters dancing and projections of scenes from Rocky movies at televised concerts for the elite. (E).

All this weirdness keeps the folks who write for 38North very busy. James Church, for example, has written a very helpful post arguing that the word to look for in any current statement coming out of the DPRK is "belt."

Little do I know about the DPRK and the ins and outs of Pyongyang. However, this I do know: the Kid is not North Korean. Whatever it might say on his current official DPRK passport, if he has one, North Korean is not his true nationality. He is, for all intents and purposes, Swiss -- having seemingly spent almost his entire life in that country.

To expect him to make an about-face and really dig being the evil dictator of a dirt-poor, culturally deprived, enemy-of-all-humankind rathole does not make much sense. Note how quickly the leadership has found him his Lady Diana, whom we can assume is from a family with impeccable political credentials, is not the brightest bulb in the chandelier, is presumed fecund and is likely schooled in certain arts to keep him...occupied (E)...lest he become annoyed with the Confucian monarch routine after growing up in the land of cuckoo clocks, chocolate, cheese, skiing and UBS.


Later - The sharp-eyed and knowledgeable have nailed down the newly-minted missus as being a much-touted singer and former member of the DPRK cheering squads (J).

The leadership have thus provided the Young General with a spouse who knows how to charm and perform and who has not the least doubt about the rightness of the regime.

Jiang Qing, any comments?

Later still - The Onion News Service (satire) has a report out from inside the private world of Kim Jong-eun and his wife. (Link)