Holding The Line In North Korea

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's detonation of a nuclear test device on Tuesday caught folks off guard. The test itself was, of course, not unexpected -- the preparations having been visible from space for weeks. Not inexplicable either was the timing of the test -- just hours before President Barack Obama's State of the Union Address, where an act of North Korean defiance would have maximum impact on the U.S. national conversation, and a safe few days before the anniversary of the birth of leader Kim Jong-un's father, Kim Jong-il (a.k.a., the Day of the Shining Star).

As for the detonation, my feelings are congratulatory -- as in "Congratulations, DPRK. You have replicated the technological sophistication of the United States of the late 1940s, at the cost of only the loss of membership in the family of humankind and most of the basic necessities of human life."

In order to keep a sense of proportion about the North Korean regime, one needs to adopt an attitude of sad resignation. Fearful of the outside world and of each other, the North Koreans pursue a weapons capability with the very reasonable goal of putting their enemies at a risk level equal to the one the DPRK faces. Of course, each step in the direction of such a capability boxes the leadership in more and more. Eventually the DPRK will produce, Amaterasu knows when, a nuclear-tipped long-range ballistic missile. What is certain is by that time they do they will be working on it by candlelight, chewing on leather for the flavor.

Japan and its U.S. ally are demanding a reversal of the programs building toward a North Korean nuclear-tipped ICBM. Given the fundamental insecurity of the DPRK regime, both on psychological and politico-economic grounds, such demands are ludicrous. The best anyone could hope for is a suspension of ongoing research & development -- and the only way that could happen would be if all in the United States collectively declared themselves utterly terrified by the awesome capabilities of the mighty and legitimate Kim regime.

Of course, for reasons of both politics and sanity, the United States cannot play the role of the elephant terrified of the mouse. Instead the U.S. plays the role of the exasperated adult, scolding the misbehaving child:

"...the Government of North Korea should abandon and dismantle its provocative ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs, cease its proliferation activities, and come into immediate compliance with all United Nations Security Council resolutions and its commitments under the 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks"

Yes, the DRPK should do these things, in order that the world might be more convenient for a hyperpower with a short attention span. Funny thing, though, the leaders of the DPRK will not do what they should, and moreover would not be leaders for very long if they did.

My thinking on the need for greater realism as to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs is best reflected in the recent essay by Dr. Muthiah Alagappa, "North Korean Nuclear Test: Implications for Asian Security," published by PacNet (no URL for the essay yet - but the PacNetters assure me that there will be one soon). At the same time, I am sympathetic to the Nth country problem outlined by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis in his essay "Friends with Benefits" published by Foreign Policy last week (Link -- the South Koreans did what in 2000?!?). Indeed, I am on record at the same publication for concern pre-election about Japan's capacity to become a Nth nation, a view which earned me the scorn, probably deserved, of Dr. Michael Green. (Link)

And the above image? It is a shot through the glass at the Perry Hall in Kurihama (Link - J) of an 1854 woodcut showing a fearful and tear-stained Commodore Matthew C. Perry and his similarly awe-stricken and crying officers cringing in terror as they present a letter from U.S. king Millard Fillmore to the mighty magistrate (bugyo) of Uraga.

When it comes to surrealist, seemingly delusional misrepresentations of one's country's stature in international affairs (Link) pretty much everyone's been there, done that.

Just remember what happened to the bakufu that greenlighted the above representation of Japan's place in the world.

I'll Have Two Orders of Kimchi And An Alphorn, Please

Over at Global Talk 21, the perspicacious Okumura Jun has noted a peculiar deviation in the northern of the two Koreas: the complete junking of the Confucian commandment, observed by Kim Jong-il after the death of his father, of a 3+ year period of mourning. (Link)

A lot of really weird stuff has been happening in the DPRK of late -- press availabilities at supposedly super-secret rocket launch sites, non-testing of atomic devices, the reinvitation of Kim Jong-il's Japanese chef back to Pyongyang, the unlicensed Disney characters dancing and projections of scenes from Rocky movies at televised concerts for the elite. (E).

All this weirdness keeps the folks who write for 38North very busy. James Church, for example, has written a very helpful post arguing that the word to look for in any current statement coming out of the DPRK is "belt."

Little do I know about the DPRK and the ins and outs of Pyongyang. However, this I do know: the Kid is not North Korean. Whatever it might say on his current official DPRK passport, if he has one, North Korean is not his true nationality. He is, for all intents and purposes, Swiss -- having seemingly spent almost his entire life in that country.

To expect him to make an about-face and really dig being the evil dictator of a dirt-poor, culturally deprived, enemy-of-all-humankind rathole does not make much sense. Note how quickly the leadership has found him his Lady Diana, whom we can assume is from a family with impeccable political credentials, is not the brightest bulb in the chandelier, is presumed fecund and is likely schooled in certain arts to keep him...occupied (E)...lest he become annoyed with the Confucian monarch routine after growing up in the land of cuckoo clocks, chocolate, cheese, skiing and UBS.


Later - The sharp-eyed and knowledgeable have nailed down the newly-minted missus as being a much-touted singer and former member of the DPRK cheering squads (J).

The leadership have thus provided the Young General with a spouse who knows how to charm and perform and who has not the least doubt about the rightness of the regime.

Jiang Qing, any comments?

Later still - The Onion News Service (satire) has a report out from inside the private world of Kim Jong-eun and his wife. (Link)

The Best Thing You Will Read On Kim Jong-Il's Death All Day

The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability has always been best non-Asian source of information (pax the usual Russians) on what is going on inside the DPRK. It is not surprising, therefore, that www.nautilus.org has published the best flash review of the outlook on the transition of power following the death of Kim Jong-il.

Then again, if the death of the despot still leaves you with a wish to giggle, there is The Okapi Factor's take on the events. It is both funny and not so, as it leaves out of its list of potential sources of future tyranny the ability of companies, organizations and governments to vacuum up information on the individual, exposing all of us to the threat of character assassination, search with out probable cause, rewritten personal histories and seizure of property without any legal recourse.

Tyranny without the martial music, if you will.

Kim Jong-il And The Axis of Crazy

Kim Jong-il is dead, or at least has been dead for a while, with the generals waiting until everyone was safely ensconced in his or her work unit this morning to announce his death.

Jong-il has died too early to complete the installation of his son as his rightful and suitable heir. The 2012 year of prosperity was to be the saddle of the transition, where Jong-il would hand off the reins to his third son Jong-un.

However much the progaganda department calls on the citizens of the Workers' Paradise to rally around Jong-un (E), the young man has none of the terrifying record of oft-deadly nuttiness that made Jong-il immediately legitimate in the DPRK's world of surreal institutionalized social violence. Recall that before taking over for his father, Jong-il had:

- signed off on the attempt to assassinate the South Korean cabinet. The bombing in Rangoon, Burma killed seventeen South Korean officials, including four cabinet ministers.

- ordered the bombing of KAL Flight 858 in order to disrupt the 1988 Seoul Olympics

- supervised the kidnapping of Japanese citizens for the purpose of teaching DPRK spies Japanese language and customs

- had South Korean film director Shin San-ok and his actress wife kidnapped in order to improve North Korea's film industry

Kim Jong-un, aside from growing his hair in the style of his revered grandfather Kim Il-sung, likely does not have what it takes to survive inside the North Korean system, despite the rumors that he was in some way in charge of the shelling of the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. Even a man as bloodthirsty, ruthless and capricious as his father Jong-il needed three years to solidify his rule after the death of his father Il-sung, and this after having been in charge of the daily business of the government for more than a decade.

I would not count on the Young Leader's lasting long. The DPRK system rewards ambition, an ability to keep one's intentions hidden and utter heartlessness. Jong-un is a pup surrounded by wolves. Whether or not he stays in power depends on how firmly the other, older members of his family inspire loyalty and/or fear in the armed forces and the secret services.