For the sake of comparison, here are the graphs of the same data for the United States and, in Herr Morén's honor, Sweden, over the same time span as the above graph for Japan.
First, the United StatesSources: U.S. Census Bureau, CDC
Source: Statistics Sweden
Looking at the data, there is the obvious difference that the number of persons dying in Japan is increasing at a steady pace -- with bizarre accelerations and decelerations along the way--while the annual number of deaths in the United States is growing only moderately and Sweden's numbers are falling. Looking at the moves in the Japanese data--the first derivative--in comparison with the shifts in the same data for the U.S. and Sweden, I still feel a sense of extraordinary unease at number of jumps of over 3% year-to-year.
Anyone else care to offer his or her opinion about what, if anything, is going on?
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Variability in Recorded Deaths - A Response to Comments
In comments to my post of August 13, Janne Morén and Zach Baran cautioned that I may be overreacting to what looks like a peculiar variability in Japan's annual increases in deaths recorded in the family registries. The year-on-year swings in the increase/decrease seemed quite large and without an obvious justification.