Monday, August 06, 2007

Kings Play Chess On Fine Grain Sand

The incomparable Okumura Jun has posted an analysis of the most intriguing anomaly of the the July 29 House of Councillors election: the fall in the Komeitō vote below the magic 8 million vote mark.

I do not quibble with any part of his projections of potential outcomes of possible political maneuvers the Komeitō might undertake to resolidify its position. However, I think he elides too quickly over the major dropoff in between 2004 and 2007. I would be very interested to find out more about exactly where the Komeitō managed to lose 860,000 votes in between 2004 and 2007 --a drop of almost 10%. The supposedly mortally wounded LDP lost only 260,000 voters in between this election and the last--a drop of just 1.5% in its support (wild how tiny shifts can produce vastly different outcomes, eh?)

For a purported legion of voting fanatics under the thrall of an iron-fisted religious leader, the Komeitō vote was damned quishy in July 2007. Where did 10% of the Komeito's support go in only 3 years?

I need to look at the finer grained numbers, dangnabbit.

1 comment:

Jun Okumura said...

Another way of looking at it is, what other party can hold on to 90% of its usual supporters when it stays with a deeply unpopular coalition partner?