The incomparable Okumura Jun has posted an analysis of the most intriguing anomaly of the the July 29 House of Councillors election: the fall in the Komeitō vote below the magic 8 million vote mark.
I do not quibble with any part of his projections of potential outcomes of possible political maneuvers the Komeitō might undertake to resolidify its position. However, I think he elides too quickly over the major dropoff in between 2004 and 2007. I would be very interested to find out more about exactly where the Komeitō managed to lose 860,000 votes in between 2004 and 2007 --a drop of almost 10%. The supposedly mortally wounded LDP lost only 260,000 voters in between this election and the last--a drop of just 1.5% in its support (wild how tiny shifts can produce vastly different outcomes, eh?)
For a purported legion of voting fanatics under the thrall of an iron-fisted religious leader, the Komeitō vote was damned quishy in July 2007. Where did 10% of the Komeito's support go in only 3 years?
I need to look at the finer grained numbers, dangnabbit.
Jokowi and the Luhut factor
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