The July 21, 2013 Elections - By the Numbers

Total number of candidates: 433

Total number of seats up for election 121

Number of district seat candidates: 271

Number of district seats up for election: 73

Number of proportional seat candidates: 162

Number of proportional seats up for election: 48

Total number of candidates, by party:

LDP 78
JCP 63
DPJ 55
JRP 44
Your Party 34
New Komeito 21
Life 11
SDP 9
Green Breeze 8
Other 83

Support for the parties (NHK poll of 7-9 June 2013)

LDP 41.7%
JCP 2.2%
DPJ 5.8%
JRP 1.5%
Your Party 1.5%
New Komeito 5.1%
Life 0.1%
SDP 0.4%
Green Breeze 0.0%
Other 0.2%
None of the above 34.6%
Don't know/can't say: 7.0%

The number of seats "X would have to win in order to do Y"

- parties nominally in support of constitutional revision to have the 2/3rds majority of seats in the House of Councillors necessary to revise the Constitution: 100

- the LDP to have all by itself majorities in both Houses of the Diet: 72

- the LDP and the New Komeito to have majorities in both Houses of the Diet: 63


Voter turnout - the last time

- last time these seats were up for election (29 July 2007): 58.64%

- last House of Councillors election (11 July 2010): 57.92%

- last national election (House of Representatives, 16 December 2012):　59.32% (historical low)

- latest major election (Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, 23 June 2013): 43.50% (second lowest ever)


Voter Turnout - Lowest

House of Councillors: 44.50% (23 July 1995)

House of Representatives: 59.32% (16 December 2012)

Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly: 40.80% (6 July 1995)

[Complete revival of the (Lack of) Spirit of '95 will guarantee Abe a historic victory on the 21st. It will also put a permanent asterisk mark next to the victory, with the explanation "Earned But Not Merited"]


Demographics

% of candidates who are women: 24% (second highest % in last 30 years)

% of candidates who are younger than 50 years of age: 43%

% of candidates who are 60 years of age or older: 26%

TBS Feels The Lash

Since the installation of the Abe Cabinet, most of the country's terrestrial broadcast networks have been noticeably chary of taking on the foibles of the government or the Liberal Democratic Party. If you are the national broadcaster NHK, keeping in tune with the government is a matter of life and death. If you are a commercial network, and your management is not in cahoots with the government (and most readers know exactly exactly which network that is), then keeping your head down is still smart.

The one network that has eschewed self-censorship since the change of governments is Tokyo Broadcasting System Television (TBS - Link - J). Broadcaster of the acerbic Asa Zuba! morning show (Link - J) hosted by the tireless and at times volcanic Mino Monta, TBS has not lowered the temperature of its news broadcasts since the advent of Abe II.

Well, it seems that the whip has come down.

In response to an evening news report of June 26 which committed the sin of suggesting that the ruling coalition alone was to blame for the death of important bills at the end of the regular Diet session (since it is up to the Prime Minister and the ruling coalition to decide whether or not to extend the Diet session so that a bill might be passed, t'is not an unreasonable insinuation) the LDP informed TBS yesterday that no member of the party's executive council will be allow himself or herself to be interviewed by the network. (Link - J)

Really? Threatening a break off of relations on the first official day of the election campaign season, more than a week after the supposed heinous broadcast? Are you that bloody defensive and/or thuggish?

TBS has so far not apologized for its broadcast, though it is in negotiations with the LDP on a restoration of normal media relations.

One could hope, and it is likely a fool's hope, given what has happened in the past to networks critical of the government (see footnote 9 here) that TBS holds its ground. In a fantastical Japan, TBS takes the LDP lockout as an opportunity to give the opposition unlimited air time (and perhaps some hints on presentation) to lash out at the ruling coalition.

Later - Who owns TBS?

Master Trust Bank of Japan (11.2%)
Mainichi Broacasting (4.1%)
Mitsui Sumitomo Bank (3.8%)
Mitsui Fudosan (3.7%)
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (2.8%)
Bicc Camera (2.7%)
Kodansha (2.5%)
Panasonic (2.0%)

(Source - J)

The July 21, 2013 Election - Where Are The Opposition's Economists?

The heads or co-heads of the parties had their pre-election warm-up debate at the National Press Club yesterday. (Link)

From the snippets broadcast on television or transcripted to be read on paper or on a screen, the impression is that opposition parties, despite having a raft of issues to run upon -- a crash national program favoring renewable energy sources and steering away from nuclear power, constitutionalism, a real discussion of the pros and cons of the Trans Pacific Partnership, the plan to lower the corporate income tax rate while raising the consumption tax -- issues where the majority of the populace agrees with the positions taken by opposition parties -- are either not serious about or not capable of running against the Liberal Democratic Party.

Prior to the election, commentators will review the positions the parties hold. I cannot...and not just because I am lazy.

The opposition parties do not have positions; they have poses. Whether it is the Your Party with its insistence on reform of the bureaucracy; the Japan Renewal Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai) with its love of decentralization and regionalism; the Democratic Party and the Life Party and their purported defense of people's livelihoods; the Communists and the Socialists with their "Article 9 Now and Forever, No TPP And More Daycare Centers Too" -- all are too easily dismissible with a "Yes, but what are the projected results of doing things your way?"

What marks the opposition parties as lightweights? The inability of their leaders to either quote or be seen in the company of economists.

If once, just once, Kaieda Banri or Shii Kazuo or Watanabe Yoshimi -- who purportedly runs on an economic liberalization program -- could say, "Professor So-and-so of the Department of Economics of Wossamatta U. says..." the voters would have the chance to say, "Hey, this party has considered the reality of there being trade offs. They've tried to think this all through."

Instead the voters are treated to brain-freezing tautologies of the sort, "The inflationary policies of Abenomics are going to lead to price rises, which is going to affect people's livelihoods."

Then again, a lack of serious engagement with economics seems may be the identification badge for those seeking to be seen as ready to clip the LDP's wings. Take the editorial (Please!) The Japan Times published on July 2:

...the right-leaning political forces inclined toward market fundamentalism — as represented by the Liberal Democratic Party, the Japan Restoration Party and Your Party — have already become powerful. If they become lopsidedly strong, voters will be deprived of meaningful political choices. The DPJ must clearly explain to voters the problems that market fundamentalism brings about, namely the expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor, and the shrinking of welfare and other public services provided by the government sector. Such an outcome will only serve further destabilize Japan’s economy and society.

(Link)

The LDP leaders believe in many things...but "market fundamentalism"? OK, Takenaka Heizo is back...but only as an advisor on the economic growth council, sitting alongside a bunch of CEOs who themselves are on the council in order to suggest sweetheart deals for their own industries (Yeah, I said it). Nakagawa Hidenao, the big man when it came to the Koizumi Revolution, bugged out long ago and took the spirit of free markets with him.

Who could the editors of The Japan Times be talking about? And if not individuals or factions, about which policies of the current government? And how would the editors propose to remedy the problems of inequality and loss of the ability to fund welfare?

If the thinking were any woollier, it would be a sweater.

The First Track Two

The article is uneven, zipping around some issues, such as, oddly, economic developments and the exclusion of American women from significant participation in the informal bilateral relationship. Nevertheless Professor Jennifer Lind has produced a readable account of the Kennedy Administration's reassessment and refoundation of the Japan-U.S. alliance, post-Ampo demonstrations. (Link)

It has been an age since I last read a "Kennedys as visionaries" piece...

Pan-Asianism All Over Again

For the academic with tenure: the long essay comparing the tone of 1920s and 1930s Japanese Pan-Asianist writings with very kind, well-meaning predictions like this:

Asia will develop a greater sense of regional awareness and cohesion. The region is still compartmentalised into Northeast, Southeast, South, Central and West Asia. But the region’s current collaborative efforts — such as the ASEAN-Plus formula, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation — will gradually lead it towards a greater level of pan-Asian cooperation.

(Link)

Eeek! I certainly hope not. I have seen this movie before and the ending is a downer.

Dr. Yang must be negotiating complex  intellectual mine fields. It must be exhausting to try to at once offer a positive message and stay within the boundaries of what is acceptable to the Beijing regime and its self-proclaimed defenders. The essay must be understood in those terms, as a chip tossed into an ocean of loaded code words and approvable poses, rather that just a justification for Chinese disruption of international institutions and norms behind a false front of making the global commons more fair and reflective of cultural difference.

Perhaps forgiveness can be extended in two directions: to Chinese intellectuals in this era of expansion who labor under the thumb of capricious, self-serving authoritarianism and to Japanese intellectuals of the pre-defeat era who faced a parallel situation.

The July 21, 2013 Election - Those Damn Internets

This summer's House of Councillors election will be Japan's first full-fledged online and social media election. The rules on Internet communications have been loosened, albeit not banished (One example of a legacy rule, reinterpreted for the new age? How does "during the campaign, while it is not illegal to forward an email from a candidate, it is illegal to print out that email on paper and hand distribute the paper printout" strike you?) For example, the first face-to-face (and possibly only) debate between the party leaders took place not in a terrestrial broadcast studio or at the National Press Club, but on a glitzy and demeaning stage provided by the Nico Nico Douga streaming site. (Link - J)

We have travelled very far from the dignified, controlled political presentations of even just a few years ago.

Three consequences of the new, Net-based campaign:

1) It will be both easier and harder to track the campaigns of individual candidates and their supporters.

More of what the candidate is doing and saying will be available for everyone to peruse at near zero cost.

However, with the plethora of videos, blog posts and tweets means there will be all the more political dross to wade through.

2) Japan’s mainstream media, print and broadcast, will be fighting a desperate and futile battle to pull politics back into their orbits.
NHK tried its best during its morning’s newscast to highlight purported abuses of net communications and how they may have affected election outcomes in South Korea, where Web participation is higher and the barriers on Web campaigning are lower.

The problem -- and it is a huge one for the major news media conglomerates, who have heretofore retained their vitality and relevance in Japan -- is that prime minister Abe Shinzo is enamored of communicating through the Internet. The Net has allowed Abe to be himself (whining that no one pays attention to him; thundering at any who dare criticize him) with neither the presentation of his ideas nor his attitude being challenged by those damn, pesky, back-stabbing journalists.

Speaking of which (being enamored of the Net, not back-stabbing journalists) the PM has moved beyond the confines of Facebook and is now striding the halls of LinkedIn.

3) As with any new toy, there is little awareness of the limits or levels of safe play. The July 2013 elections will likely be the coarsest, most heated and most dispiriting in history, despite the outcome being largely decided (the latest Yomiuri public opinion poll results are accessible here) and the lack of divisive national issues. Already this year there have been a number of kerfuffles over government and political figures losing their all sense of decorum in social media. (For one example of twittery, see - Link) 

The levels of abuse and ranting in this upcoming campaign (which officially kicks off on the 4th) will likely change the views many hold of this blessed land's politics, yours truly not excepted.

She Skates Her Own Way

Doing whatever it is her way has been figure skater Ando Miki's trademark. Whether it is in training, endorsements, makeup, outfits and living arrangements, she has always raised eyebrows and pursed lips in this sacrificial discipline- and skating-mad nation.

Last night, however, Ando topped all her previous efforts at blowing the nation's fuses. In an interview on TV Asahi's flagship evening news broadcast News Station the two-time world champion revealed that she gave birth to a little girl in April...and she demurred on revealing the identity of the child's father. (Link - J)

Single motherhood, much less single motherhood among athletes, is not how one goes about the process of reproduction in this blessed land. A rite of passage of women glitterati in their 20s is indeed the dekichatta kekkon, the sudden announcement by a starlet of a wedding to the biological father of her fetus. That these marriages inevitably -- or pretty much inevitably -- dissolve a few years later, too often in ways deleterious to the child's well-being, is an afterthought, if that.

There are good institutional reasons for marrying the sperm component provider of an infant prior to that infant's birth. Having no father on the family registry is a permanent, indelible stigma -- an excuse for any admissions office, personnel department or marriage go-between to toss out your child's application without reading it. Single motherhood is therefore almost non-existent.

There are good promotional reasons for the day laborers of the sports-and-entertainment complex to accede to sham, shotgun marriages.  Fantasy images of wedding cakes, reception and the wearing of white are far easier to sell than "Yes, I had unprotected sex with a male I am not married to and who he is and what I think of him are none of your Amaterasu-damned business. If you are looking for someone capable of justifying or making you forget your own messed up marriage, I am not that person."

As for what childbirth means for Ando's calling, which is figure skating, certainly having a child this year ends all possibility of her competing for Japan at the 2014 Sochi Olympics.

Uh, maybe not. The image posted (altered, the original can be found here) is of Ando skating in an ice show on June 28. After having given birth in April.

Yow.

In her nonchalant and after-the-fact announcement on becoming a mother, Ando once again pips Asada Mao, the country's much-beloved and terribly enervated ice queen (Link). Asada has announced that she will retire after Sochi, one of her reasons being a strong desire to become a mother.

It seems one doesn't have to give up one role for the other, Mao-chan.


Later - Lest it be forgotten, Ando was the first (and to my knowledge the only) woman to ever land a quadruple jump in international individual competition.

Ue O Muite, Aruko

National Public Radio, on the most improbable #1 hit record ever in the United States.

I had no idea the lyrics had anything to do with the Ampo demonstrations. You learn something every day.

Of course, the coda, which has Sakamoto Kyu dying in 1985 in what is still the worst single aircraft disaster ever, does not quite fit into the uplifting message of the piece.


Later - If you can identify all those singing the song in this string of video clips...you have been watching way too much television.

I do not know what is trippier, Becky's warbles or Miura's Yuichiro's mug.

Where The Abe Cabinet Will Lead Us - A Preview

Two worthies well worth listening to -- Columbia University professor Gerald Curtis and Sophia University professor Nakano Koichi -- will be speaking this noontime at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan. (Link)

I must admit a curious relationship with both men. Professor Curtis gave a very kind public plug for Shisaku last month, with the caveat (an unnecessary one, really) that "Michael is not always right." Professor Nakano does not know quite what to make of me, even after we have served on discussion panels together. I am guessing, though, that I am not his favorite person.

Which is odd, because of the two, I more inclined to agree with Dr. Nakano than Dr. Curtis, specifically on the outlook for the governing style of the Abe Cabinet after the July 21 election. Professor Curtis is largely sanguine, expecting that the postwar habis of political parties and governments holding back from the full use of their powers will carry on past July 21. I believe, and I suspect Dr. Nakano believes that once clear of the House of Councillors election the Liberal Democratic Party's worst elements will run amok, bulldozing long-desired revisionist and remilitarization claptrap through the Diet, constrained by only by the occasional mild protest from a cowering New Komeito and/or their own sloth.

Dr. Curtis has assured me that fear public criticism will keep Abe and Company from making use of the near dictatorial powers they will enjoy after July 21. The good doctor may have a point: the Abe government has heretofore not made much use of its supermajority in the House of Representatives...if by "not made much use" one means, "if one ignores the use of the supermajority to pass the redistricting based upon the egregious +0/-5 electoral reform legislation perpetuating the inequalities in the electoral system critical to LDP dominance." (Link - J)

I am not sure that today's LDP, composed of folks who could not stop attacking Prime Minister Kan Naoto even as the country was plunged in its worst crisis since World War II, is so genteel as to be reined in by admonitions from the nation's editors and television personalities.

If I were at the press conference I would also like to hear what both professors make of the recent drops in voter participation...and not just for the knife to the back such opting out from voting has been for the Democratic Party of Japan. I would like to know how the two professors will incorporate the terrible voter turnout numbers for the last two big elections (last December's House of Representatives election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election of June 23) and the projected poor turnout for the July 21 election into their theories on how Japanese democracy works, or, if they wish to categorize it so, how Japanese democracy does not work.

That Rising And Sinking Feeling Of Abenomics

Today may be the day when the shock comes.

No, not from the first opening of the climbing season on Mt. Fuji since the mountain and its environs were proclaimed UNESCO World Heritage sites, though the likely result is more crowding on what is an already overcrowded mountain.

[I am of two minds regarding the listing. The listing does grant the communities at the foot of the mountain the ability to start charging climbing fees eventually (Link). Such fees will be a source funding for facilities and environmental clean up on the mountain. However, the government's successful last second lobbying efforts to have Miho no Matsubara included in the listing, after the UNESCO panel recommended its exclusion (Link - J) smells of graft and/or vote trading.

So both the good and the bad on the big ledger.]

No, today is when we find out whether or not the heretofore restrained rise in consumer prices will stop being restrained, smacking shoppers in the face with a sudden, across-the-board jump in prices for household goods, electricity, transportation and just about everything else.

Consumers have been largely shielded from the effects of the Abe administration's destruction of the international standing of the yen. As of today, the start of the new quarter, the gloves will likely come off. Producers of flour, bread and meats have already announced significant jumps in prices for today (Link - J). All producers and service providers will be under pressure to follow suit, either openly or through stealth (Link - J). Even the luxury goods with their absurd pricing that gives them the leeway to swallow the effects of currency fluctuations, are set to rise today. (Link - J)

[Hint: to those who have been using the recent increases in the sales of high-end imported luxury goods and luxury cars as barometers of a hotter Japanese economy, think it possible that even the buyers of these items have been looking ahead and buying now, before the sticker shock comes, rather than loosening their purse strings.

Oh, and you might have wanted to mention that increased purchases of imported luxury goods are a net negative for GDP.]

In the anecdotal everyday, retailers have been acting peculiar. When I tried to buy a new bag (my old one being a tattered embarrassment) at a fast retail outlet, I was told there were no bags. When I asked whether this meant the chain no longer sells bags, the clerk told me peremptorily that no, they still sold bags. Only they did not have any left in the stock room.

A state of affairs which anyone can tell you never occurs unintentionally.

As for my favorite discount foreign food and coffee bean seller, it has until now not raised any of its prices -- an impossible state of affairs given that all of its products are imported. Ominously, it had a special sales offer through June 30, encouraging consumers to buy five flavors of beans in return for a reduction in price on a future purchase -- an offer looking suspiciously like the kind of warehouse cleaning a company would undertake before releasing a completely revamped line of products at a higher base price level.

The price rises for consumer goods will be large but not unreasonable, despite soaring raw materials and energy prices. Deeply enracinated deflationary expectations will force producers and retailers to moderate their increases, for now. They will, of course, have to swallow a part of the rise in the cost of inputs, meaning they will forgo regular profits.

Or so we hope.

On the level of local government services, the price for an hour's swim today at the local public swimming center costs 20% more than it did yesterday. Or it would, if the pool were not closed today in order for employees to reset the automated ticket dispensers and takers and replace all the signage. Considering that the water in the pool is heated by the incineration of the area's garbage, the jump in price, percentage-wise, seems uncalled for -- unless, of course, it is inordinately expensive to make a price change and making the jump in prices a big one is one way to recoup the cost of the transformation.

I do not have to elaborate how much the double punch -- a sudden jump in the prices of everyday goods and producers having to accept lower or no profits -- will likely affect personal consumption, remuneration and investment over the summer and into the fall.

But then, as any credible statistical evidence of declining consumption, income and/or investment will not appear until after the Liberal Democratic Party crushes all of its enemies in the July 21 House of Councillors election, no worries, eh, Mr. Abe?