Kickstarting Abenomics: A Possible Scenario

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Later - Oh, serendipitous coincidence. (Link - J)

Original photo image courtesy: Sankei Shimbun

Japan's Unfun Olympics

Tokyo Organizing Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games members.
Source: Japan Olympic Commitee website

Japan seems on course for a horrid Olympics. Not the games in Sochi, which are progressing pretty much as can be reasonably expected, the only real negative surprise being World Cup sensation Takanashi Sara’s failure to medal on the normal hill.

No, the games that are shaping up to be a downer are the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. One does not have to be looking under rocks for yakuza, as Jake Adelstein would have us do (admittedly, it would take a huge rock to hide the oily bulk of International Sumo Federation chairman Tanaka Hidetoshi - Link). One just has to look at the membership of the Japan Olympic Committee's executive board (Link) and the announced lineup of the Tokyo Organizing Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (Tokyo Orinpikku Pararinpikku Soshinki Iinkai).

The JOC has 30 members, 2 of whom seem to be women of the female persuasion. The JOC is supposed to be face of Japan's Olympic movement and not even 7% of it is allowed to be feminine?

As for the Soshiki Iinkai, it currently has no women members.

Possibly worse than the exclusion of women is the exclusion of anyone with experience running events or in sports management or sports promotion. Instead, the non-automatic, appointed membership of the board is a collection of Abe Shinzo cronies from politics, the bureaucracy and megabusiness, only one of whom is under 70 years of age.

Tokyo Organizing Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games

Chairman - Former Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro (76)
[Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's former faction leader]

Honorary Chairman - Canon Chairman and President Mitarai Fujio (78)
[Former chairman of the Nippon Keidanren -- his term of service being a grand step backward for the organization]

Vice-Chairman - Former Vice Minister of Finance Muto Toshiro (70)

[Twice failed candidate for Governor of Bank of Japan, most recently suggested by Abe Shinzo]

Vice Chairman - Toyota Motors President Toyoda Akio (57)
[vocal and loyal supporter of Abenomics - see picture]



Executive-Director - JOC President Takeda Tsunekazu (66)
[automatic selection]

(Link - J)

Is anyone clear on the concept that we are in 2014 -- and that Tokyo will be hosting the Olympics in 2020? Mitarai will be 84 years old; Mori 82. I have nothing against experience and street cred with the nation's largest corporations -- but it is my understanding that the Olympics are sort of a celebration of vitality -- which, if it is going to be exhibited by the present members of the committee, will probably require intravenous drips.

As for "fun" -- or however much fun is left in hosting the Olympics after they are wrested from Vladimir Putin’s stainless steel grip -- the quintet so far? Not fun people (Well maybe Mori). Toyoda, the stripling, plays the "tense and defensive oyaji" role about as well as it can be played.

With the exception of Takeda, all of the members of the committee are folks to whom Abe Shinzo owes favors. It is true that one has to pay the piper and dance with thems that brung you. But do we all have to be condemned to a construction industry and zaikai hog fest, with the details probably assigned to Dentsu, just because Abe owes his current position to big business bosses?

And Everything Under The Sun

All that you eat
And everyone you meet...

- Roger Waters, "Eclipse" (1973)

Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has been on vacation since his appearance at the commemorative events on the August 9 anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki. He purportedly most definitely needed a vacation after seven frenetic months where he visited 12 (?) foreign countries, took one day off per month and led a leave-no-stone-unturned effort to win the July 21 House of Councillors election.

The PM's dedication to rest and recuperation has been only nominal. Looking at his schedule, it would scarcely count as a vacation.

Mr. Abe has had some days when the only items on his schedule have been a round of golf and a dinner at an eatery close by his second home in the Fuji Lakes area. However, he has all been away from the villa almost as much as in it. He had a two day trip to Yamaguchi Prefecture for grave visits and political support network meetings on August 12 -13 where he tucked in sympathy calls at locales damaged by recent torrential rains (since these were in his and right hand man and fellow Choshu Mafia member Kawamura Takeo's districts, the pair had good local support reasons for the special sympathy tour). He had his public duties in Tokyo on August 15, which included a cabinet meeting, receiving the chairman of the U.S. Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee, laying a wreath on the tomb of the unknowns at Chidorigafuchi, co-presiding with the Emperor at the official end-of-war service and an hour-long visit to the salon to get his hair done.

No, I am not making that last one up.

Even when he has restricted himself to eating and playing golf, he has been power lunching, power dining and power putting.

On Saturday, for example, the PM played golf with former Nippon Keidanren chairman and the current chairman and CEO of Canon Mitarai Fujio and former Nippon Keidanren vice chairman and JX Holdings advisor Watari Fumiaki -- an activity which lasted from nine in the morning until four in the afternoon. For dinner, the PM went to the Hotel Mount Fuji for a meal with Japan Restoration Party co-chairman Ishihara Shintaro and Environment Minister and I. Shintaro’s second oldest child Ishihara Nobuteru. After a spell Hieda Hisashi, the CEO of the right-leaning Fuji Television Network and the PM’s wife Akie joined the group.

The day before, on Friday, the PM and Akie played a round of golf with Komori Shigetaka, the CEO of the Fuji Film group and Mrs. Komori from 7 a.m. to 2 p.m. (when did they eat lunch?). Dinner was at the not hideously expensive but not shabby either Oshino Yashima with Watari Fumiaki and Special Advisor the Prime Minister Hasegawa Ei’ichi (Link - J). Akie-sama again was the hostess.

The day before that (Thursday) the PM played golf (sense a pattern here?) with former Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro (one would think that after the Ehime Maru Incident former PM Mori would have learned to stay away from the golf course...but obviously no), Minister of Economics, Trade and Industry Motegi Toshimitsu, Ishihara Nobuteru and Yasukuni cash envelope delivery man and member of the House of Representatives Hagiuda Ko'ichi. Their play began before 7 am and lasted until 2 pm. In the late afternoon the PM was the host of a barbecue at the villa where the main guests were Komori Shigetaka and Hieda Hisashi.

For the record, Hagiuda seems to have been well rewarded for the task of being the PM's envoy to Yasukuni on the morning of the 15th. He not only scored a round of golf with his betters on the 16th but had dinner on the night of the 15th at the villa with the PM, Mori, Ishihara, Motegi and Sasakawa Yohei, the chairman of the Nippon Foundation. (Link - J)

On the 14th, after a morning at an exercise fair in Yokohama the PM was at his home in Tokyo. However, in the evening, after a paying his respects at the wake for a relative of his personal secretary, he had dinner at the Hotel New Otani with Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide, former Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Nakagawa Hidenao (a.k.a., Big Nakagawa, a.k.a. Nakagawa the Sane) and Shida Tsutomu, the supreme advisor and former chairman and CEO of the Shidax food and entertainment conglomerate.

This is relaxing?

There are days in the schedule since this holiday began where the PM's schedule has listed only "played golf with friends" and "ate dinner with friends." For the most part, though, the PM's daily activities seem to have been organized around lining up key allies and advocates among the movers and shakers in Big Business, the Cabinet, free marketers (Nakagawa), the LDP, former bureaucrats and even the opposition before the fall extraordinary session of the Diet. Huge decisions loom as regards the constitution and education reform, revisions to Japan’s security policies, the Trans Pacific Partnership, greentlighting the 3% rise in the consumption tax and the heretofore unannounced parts of the Third Arrow of Abenomics -- and Abe seems to spending his purported rest period smoothing whatever edges he can prior to the session's start.



Even the deeply personal trips, like the one to Yamaguchi to pay respects at his father's grave -- a seasonal and filial duty he neglected in 2007 in the chaos after the defeat in the House of Councillors election, a botched selection of a new Cabinet and ill-timed official trips abroad -- provided an opening for political box checking. The family grave in Nagato was not the only pilgrimage site. The PM also traveled a few kilometres further up the coast to Hagi to pay his respects at the grave site of martyr to the Restoration movement Yoshida Shoin (Link - J -- for those less mobile than the PM, Yoshida has another grave marker in Setagaya -- Link - J). As "a son of Choshu" a visit to Yoshida's school and grave marker represents an understandable nod to historical geography and hometown sensitivities (the PM, while nominally from Nagato, is really from Tokyo).

An aside...but Yoshida worship seems to have, in recent years, been in something of an eclipse. Other figures from the age have enjoyed greater study and exposure. Perhaps the PM is trying to jump start a Yoshida boom. Whether or not the Yoshida boom ensues, visiting the gravesite of the spiritual father of the Meiji Restoration does the PM no harm in the more nationalist patriot segments of the electorate.

How do I know what the PM has been doing in so much detail? I read it in the newspaper, of course. To get the PM's schedule of where he went, who he met and where he ate (if not exactly what he ate) just copy 首相動静 into the search window of the Japanese news aggregator you like best. If you are language challenged but willing to wait for a while, Asia Policy Point has been doing the yeoman's duty of translating Abe's published schedule into English (Link - J). The APP translations are a great complement to the pretty decent job the Prime Minister's Residence is doing keeping the public abreast of highlights in the PM's day (Link), some of which are downright bizarre (taking part in this art exhibition, for example). The PM and his staff fill in further information via the famous/infamous postings to his Facebook page.

There are so many windows allowing us to peer into the PM's life. T'is a thing of wonder he still so enjoys throwing the occasional stone.

Top image courtesy: MTC
Original image by Storm Thorgerson

Photo courtesy: Mainichi Shimbun

Many Thanks

Many thanks this morning to commenter "Troy." He has increased the value of my hastily-set down, half-formed opinions with links, supportive statements and counterarguments.

Though I value all of his comments--and hope my readers do likewise--I would like to highlight two of his most recent contributions.

The first is the link to the Ministry of Finance's English-language brief Japan's Fiscal Condition. While an update is due, the paper nevertheless provides an invaluable review, in just a few pages of graphs, of the background to the decisions being made regarding the country's finances. If you ever want, as I do, to rid yourself of the "It is my understanding that..." disease, going over this paper is a great first step.

The second contribution is a graph of the size of Japan's 25-45 years-of-age cohort (Link). While I for selfish reasons despair at the narrowness of the window described, Troy's graph does show the fundamental macroeconomic problem: the swiftly falling numbers of persons in the top consumption years. Reductions in Japan's productive capacity can be made up with increased participation of women in the workforce, delayed retirement and increased productivity. However, the loss of domestic consumption is an issue the government and business either fail to grasp or want to face.

One big victim of the shrinkage in the domestic market will have to be keiretsu tribalism. That Japan's markets are not free -- that purchases by either corporate consumers or individuals are guided as much by keiretsu loyalties as price or quality -- can be accepted and acceptable as long as the domestic market is growing or stable. The reality of a shrinking market -- that in order to keep sales on the same level, one must make inroads into a competitor's customer base -- is not something Japan's established businesses want to think about.

However, do not make any investments based upon the above. No matter how inevitable the collapse of a large institutional structure, it will survive longer than reason dictates or suggests.

A Photo Says It All - October 9, 2012

"I fully accept your surrender. Your sins are forgiven. Enter in peace."

At a Tokyo hotel, Yonemura Hiromasa (75), Chairman of the Nippon Keidanren, shakes hands with Liberal Democratic Party President Abe Shinzo (55) prior to a 9 a.m. meeting to discuss policy with the new secretariat of the LDP.

Yonekura has yet to pay even a social call on the new secretariat of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan.

Photo credit: Hokkaido Shimbun

Oh, You Have Got To Be Kidding Me

Noda The Decider (Once I Have A Consensus) at work:

Japan postpones decision on whether to join Pacific free trade talks
Kyodo News

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda decided Thursday to postpone an announcement on whether Japan will join negotiations for a Pacific free trade agreement, heeding calls from the ruling party to make a decision in a cautious manner, the top government spokesman said.

The abrupt announcement to delay the decision regarding negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement to Friday came after senior officials of the government and ruling Democratic Party of Japan met at the prime minister's office.

"Please give me one day to think," Noda was quoted as telling the officials, according to DPJ policy chief Seiji Maehara. (Link)

Like what, the PM is going to have an epiphany in the midst of Diet Budget Committee questioning tomorrow?

This is not high drama; this is low comedy.

Hey Nippon Keidanren and METI, see what happens when you do not make an effort to make your case, failing to appreciate that this is a political battle to death, not a gentleman's/gentlelady's debate? You leave your prime minister befuddled, perplexed and finally an object worthy of ridicule.

The Black Ships Of The TPP

When Prime Minister Kan Naoto raised the possibility of Japan's participation in the Trans Pacific Partnership, he likened it a "third opening" of Japan -- on a par with the transformation wreaked upon Japan by the arrival of Commodore Matthew Perry's black ships and the post-surrender Occupation of Japan.

Besides the tactical problem of trying to present the TPP in a positive, neutral light after describing it as commensurate with the two instances the United States forcefully dragged Japan into its vision of a world order (and boy oh boy, have the troglodyte nationalists and anti-American leftists gone to town on portraying the TPP as an American plot to destroy Japan...not that Japanese special interests are not slowly destroying Japan on their own without U.S. interference, thank you very much) is the question of the real value Japan can draw out of a further set of shocks to its system. What with the reconstruction of the Tohoku region, the continuing disaster that is Fukushima Daiichi (now they are finding evidence the melted fuel at the bottom of the reactor has gone critical...oh great), the soaring yen (pax Richard Katz and others who argue that the yen is not at an aberrantly high level), declining population and fertility and a looming mass of baby boom retirees landing on the pension system, the rise of highly competitive rivals in all tradeable goods, does Japan actually need any more shock treatment? The Nippon Keidanren (and when the history of the TPP fight is written, the Nippon Keidanren's complacency and sloth should be the subject of scathing criticism) and the government have not made the case that this is so.

A society can only take so much torsion before it breaks. It it should not surprise anyone that in the next week the Noda government packs it in on the TPP fight, realizing the country faces way internal challenges that only can be handled on an individual and idiosyncratic basis, rather than via a multilateral, all-encompassing template.

If the Prime Minister really believes that TPP participation is not beyond the pale, the next key date is November 8, when the Liberal Democratic Party is scheduled to release its position paper on TPP participation. Based on what the main opposition party says, the New Komeito having already come out against TPP participation, the government and the Democratic Party of Japan will map out their next moves.

TPP Thoughts

Corey Wallace, who is in Japan doing research for his doctorate, has taken a moment to consider the Trans Pacific Partnership and its role Asia-Pacific trade policy.
(Link).

I would not have very much to add, save that in Japan there is a striking contrast between the elite representations of the TPP and the grassroots reality of opposition to Japan participating in even discussions about joining the pact.

The recent approval of the Korea United States Free Trade Agreement was portrayed by the media as proof that Japan was in decline in world importance, even with its most important/only military ally the United States, and that the country had better gets its britches hitched on and get going on negotiating free trade pacts, if only to not be bested by the South Koreans.

The news media's immediate solution to this problem, a salve really, for a gaping national wound, is the TPP. Discussion of bilateral free trade pacts or Amaterasu forbid the Doha round is pushed aside. The TPP, and Japan's having to be on board in time for the Hawaii APEC meeting, is all that anyone in medialand is talking about.

However, on the ground, the forces for and against participation are more than evenly matched. While the manufacturer-heavy and highly influentially Nippon Keidanren business lobby considers participation in the TPP of the highest national importance, an array of equally powerful political players -- farmers cooperatives, the pharmaceutical industry, labor unions -- are against Japan entering into negotiations on the very reasonable basis that once Japan has jumped in it will find it very costly to jump out again, should the content of the trade pact become politically unworkable.

As for the situation in the Diet, the gap between elite-sponsored perceptions of the importance, indeed the inevitability, of the government moving forward on participation in TPP discussions and reality were illustrated in the first open meeting of the Democratic Pary of Japan's Project Team on the TPP. After the members of the project team spoke, the floor was opened up for comment. The first person to pick up the microphone said, in a matter fact tone, "Hello, I am Yamada Masahiko, head of the 181-member group of DPJ Diet legislators opposed to Japan's participating in TPP discussion."

Kerpow! That number, 181, is within shouting distance of 50% of the DPJ's Diet representation. When the breadth and intrusiveness of the partnership agreement is better known, the number of doubters in the Diet is likely to grow.

What is going on, therefore, is a race, with the big business lobby, in collusion with a media complex transfixed by the narrative of Japan's relative decline, pushing hard for Japan's participation, against a range of less flashy, so far less organized and reactionary elements with a strong grip on the elbows of many legislators. The pro-TPP side, citing the looming spectre of the APEC conference and the disappointment the United States will feel should Japan, already in the doghouse over Futenma, ruin President Barack Obama's houseparty not committing to participation in TPP discussions, is trying to panic the anti-TPP side into surrendering to the TPP's inexorable force.

Will the pro-TPP fail in bum rushing the other side? Probably. They got a big boost from the KORUS receiving U.S. Senate ratification. There are no further big boosts on the horizon, and with every passing day, the arguments of those opposed to TPP participation get sharper and the ranks of persons aware of the challenges freer trade may pose grow more numerous.

Then again, there is nothing like the possibility that the South Koreans will run right past Japan economically to get Japanese minds focused on getting back into the fast lane.


Later - Yes, of course Masahiko Yamada is a former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Did one even have to ask?