Elvis Presley, of course.
Liberal Democratic Party president Tanigaki Sadakazu drifted further down in his Kurztian course yesterday.
In what should have been a mere formality, he called upon Koga Makoto, leader of the Kochikai (Koga Faction). A formality because Tanigaki is himself a member of the Kochikai, having merged his own faction, also called the Kochikai, with Koga's in May of 2008, first in order to order to reunite the sundered original Kochikai, which split into two competing groups in 2001 and second and more importantly, to gain leverage through numbers in intra-LDP fights for position and spoils.
Now as the champion of the rebuilt Koseikai, albeit arising out of the far smaller of the two shards of the original faction, Tanigaki should, out of the bonds of loyalty that bind LDP members to one another even when their bonding makes zero sense in terms of ideology or general election strategy, have received Koga's support.
Tanigaki did not get it. (E)
Koga has been a known opponent of the Tanigaki doctrine of taking a confrontational stance toward the Democratic Party of Japan's every proposal in a bid to force a House of Representatives election. He encouraged cooperation, being a major back room facilitator of the DPJ-LDP-New Komeito agreement to pass the bills reforming the social welfare and pension systems, including the raising of the consumption tax.
The LDP's voting on August 29 in support of the seven party censure motion, which condemned the three party agreement, infuriated Koga. He could not, would not support Tanigaki's continued reign as party president. (J)
Without the support of his faction behind him in the party election, Tanigaki has essentially zero chance of rounding up the even the 20 signatures necessary for applying to be a candidate. No one wants to be associated with a politician who has been cast off by his faction leader.
Unwilling as ever to comprehend that some things are just impossible, Tanigaki has yet to call it a day.
By the way, unlike Tanigaki's reelection chances, the other Elvis is quite alive...and laughing at himself.
Showing posts with label Koga Makoto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Koga Makoto. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Monday, April 28, 2008
After the Yamaguchi #2 election
In a hotly contested race portrayed as a referendum against the government of Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo, Democratic Party of Japan candidate Hiraoka Hideo defeated the Liberal Democratic Party candidate Yamamoto Shigetarō by 10 percentage points in the Yamaguchi District #2 by-election. Turnout was a spectacular 69.0% of the electorate, the highest turnout for a stand-alone by-election since the system reforms of 2000.
I was hoping to write a "Dos and Don'ts" list from the results of the election. However, I can only think of a list of "Don'ts", namely:
- Don't run a newbie against local three-time winner who's only defeat, and a narrow one it was, came as the result of the Koizumi landslide of 2005
- Don't select a former Construction Ministry bureaucrat as your candidate while trying to say, with a straight face, "We have not abandoned reform."
- Don't fool yourself with "Yamaguchi is a rural, conservative bastion" type prefecture-based thinking when the district in question has a huge U.S. Marines (and soon U.S. Navy) base in it
- Don't start compulsory medical care deductions from the pensions of seniors over 75 years of age one week before an election if you have not made sure beforehand that the pension record of every single person over 75 in the district is in order first
- Don't expect to hold on to a Diet seat when you send your best candidate, the incumbent, on a career-sacrificing mission to capture the mayoralty of the district's largest city (see U.S. Marines base issue above)
- Don't announce ahead of time that you are going to vote for the reapplication of the gasoline tax no matter what public opinion might be--or without a "if-I-do-not-get-my-way-I-will-dissolve-the-Diet" public pledge from the Prime Minister on the passage of a revision of the road construction plan bill
While spin masters in the LDP will try to downplay the election as having been a lost cause from the beginning, the weight of office has probably become very, very heavy on the shoulders of LDP Secretary-General Ibuki Bunmei. As a holdover from the First Abe Administration, Ibuki is something of anomaly in the current administration--appointed to the #2 party position not because of his political savvy but because he is a faction head and a relic Meiji State fantabulist (i.e. Ibuki signals to the revisionist wing of the LDP that the party will not ignore their needs and concerns). Ibuki's only refuge is that he is not formally responsible for the outcomes of elections anymore, as he would have been in the old days. Koga Makoto's insistence he be given the post of Election Measures Chairman (senkyo taisaku inchō) and that the status of that office be raised to the same level as sanyaku posts shifts at least part of the blame for the defeat on to Koga's shoulders.
Even if this loss does not trigger a further major erosion of the popularity of the Fukuda Cabinet, it will almost certainly increase the timidity of the Cabinet and the ruling coalition as regards policy innovation and implementation. When you are down, everything difficult looks like a threat. When you are struggling, every challenge looks too unpopular to undertake.
I was hoping to write a "Dos and Don'ts" list from the results of the election. However, I can only think of a list of "Don'ts", namely:
- Don't run a newbie against local three-time winner who's only defeat, and a narrow one it was, came as the result of the Koizumi landslide of 2005
- Don't select a former Construction Ministry bureaucrat as your candidate while trying to say, with a straight face, "We have not abandoned reform."
- Don't fool yourself with "Yamaguchi is a rural, conservative bastion" type prefecture-based thinking when the district in question has a huge U.S. Marines (and soon U.S. Navy) base in it
- Don't start compulsory medical care deductions from the pensions of seniors over 75 years of age one week before an election if you have not made sure beforehand that the pension record of every single person over 75 in the district is in order first
- Don't expect to hold on to a Diet seat when you send your best candidate, the incumbent, on a career-sacrificing mission to capture the mayoralty of the district's largest city (see U.S. Marines base issue above)
- Don't announce ahead of time that you are going to vote for the reapplication of the gasoline tax no matter what public opinion might be--or without a "if-I-do-not-get-my-way-I-will-dissolve-the-Diet" public pledge from the Prime Minister on the passage of a revision of the road construction plan bill
While spin masters in the LDP will try to downplay the election as having been a lost cause from the beginning, the weight of office has probably become very, very heavy on the shoulders of LDP Secretary-General Ibuki Bunmei. As a holdover from the First Abe Administration, Ibuki is something of anomaly in the current administration--appointed to the #2 party position not because of his political savvy but because he is a faction head and a relic Meiji State fantabulist (i.e. Ibuki signals to the revisionist wing of the LDP that the party will not ignore their needs and concerns). Ibuki's only refuge is that he is not formally responsible for the outcomes of elections anymore, as he would have been in the old days. Koga Makoto's insistence he be given the post of Election Measures Chairman (senkyo taisaku inchō) and that the status of that office be raised to the same level as sanyaku posts shifts at least part of the blame for the defeat on to Koga's shoulders.
Even if this loss does not trigger a further major erosion of the popularity of the Fukuda Cabinet, it will almost certainly increase the timidity of the Cabinet and the ruling coalition as regards policy innovation and implementation. When you are down, everything difficult looks like a threat. When you are struggling, every challenge looks too unpopular to undertake.
Friday, April 04, 2008
The Revolt of Heisei 20
Party affiliations in the House of Representatives:
LDP = 304
New Komeito = 31
Total numbers of representatives in the ruling coalition = 335
2/3 of the members of the House of Representatives = 320
Number of dissenters needed to kill the gasoline tax upon the revote to held possibly on April 30 (April 29 is a national holiday. Will the Speaker of the House of Representatives be able to summon a quorum during Golden Week?) = 16
-------------------------------------------------------
Kōno Tarō believes he can lead a limited rebellion against the road tribe in support of the Prime Minister's proposals on the road construction bills.
I think events will sweep past even Kōno's group thanks to Elections Measures Chairman Koga Makoto. His thinly veiled contempt for the Koizumi Kids seems ready to birth a monster.
The Koizumi Kids, the freshmen elected in 2005 on the wave of enthusiasm for Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichirō's promises of continued structural reform, are staring at defeat in the next elections. Many of them represent urban or suburban districts or are holding at-large proportional vote seats normally occupied by members of the Democratic Party. Given the current unpopularity of the government, the Koizumi Kids have only a tiny chance of retaining their seats.
Koga has not come straight out and said, "You are all freaks. I cannot spend a yen on you because you have zero chance at winning the next time around."
Instead, he has been deliberate, trying to make it seem as though he is agonizing over whether not to throw his weight behind the Koizumi Kids candidates. His insistence on selecting "candidates who can win" for the district seats and his favoritism toward the exiles (the LDP members expelled by Koizumi for their opposition to the privatization of the Post Office) has nevertheless made it clear that Koga considers the Koizumi Kids unworthy of cultivation and encouragement.
This is classic marginal return versus growth decisionmaking...a prudent marshalling of electoral resources toward nailing down a low-level target.
Only one problem, though...it is not election time yet. There are bills that still need to be passed using the two-thirds override provision.
For the Koizumi Kids, some of who are hardly children (Yosano Kaoru is one of them) the question to ponder over the next four weeks is:
"When the party is unlikely to support me, why should I support the party?"
Later - Okumura Jun not only does not agree with me, he thinks I am wrong, wrong, wrong.
LDP = 304
New Komeito = 31
Total numbers of representatives in the ruling coalition = 335
2/3 of the members of the House of Representatives = 320
Number of dissenters needed to kill the gasoline tax upon the revote to held possibly on April 30 (April 29 is a national holiday. Will the Speaker of the House of Representatives be able to summon a quorum during Golden Week?) = 16
-------------------------------------------------------
Kōno Tarō believes he can lead a limited rebellion against the road tribe in support of the Prime Minister's proposals on the road construction bills.
I think events will sweep past even Kōno's group thanks to Elections Measures Chairman Koga Makoto. His thinly veiled contempt for the Koizumi Kids seems ready to birth a monster.
The Koizumi Kids, the freshmen elected in 2005 on the wave of enthusiasm for Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichirō's promises of continued structural reform, are staring at defeat in the next elections. Many of them represent urban or suburban districts or are holding at-large proportional vote seats normally occupied by members of the Democratic Party. Given the current unpopularity of the government, the Koizumi Kids have only a tiny chance of retaining their seats.
Koga has not come straight out and said, "You are all freaks. I cannot spend a yen on you because you have zero chance at winning the next time around."
Instead, he has been deliberate, trying to make it seem as though he is agonizing over whether not to throw his weight behind the Koizumi Kids candidates. His insistence on selecting "candidates who can win" for the district seats and his favoritism toward the exiles (the LDP members expelled by Koizumi for their opposition to the privatization of the Post Office) has nevertheless made it clear that Koga considers the Koizumi Kids unworthy of cultivation and encouragement.
This is classic marginal return versus growth decisionmaking...a prudent marshalling of electoral resources toward nailing down a low-level target.
Only one problem, though...it is not election time yet. There are bills that still need to be passed using the two-thirds override provision.
For the Koizumi Kids, some of who are hardly children (Yosano Kaoru is one of them) the question to ponder over the next four weeks is:
"When the party is unlikely to support me, why should I support the party?"
Later - Okumura Jun not only does not agree with me, he thinks I am wrong, wrong, wrong.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Not this time
LDP Election Measures Chairman Koga Makoto is not stupid, it seems.
In the fight over which of the LDP's candidates for the Tokushima #2 district shall represent the LDP in the next House of Representatives election, he has chosen the party exile Yamaguchi Shun'ichi over the Koizumi Junichirō-appointed assassin Shichijō Akira.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports that Koga came to choose Yamaguchi over Shichijō based on the results of public opinion polls and levels of support for either candidate among Tokushima party members. Of course, what the report does not say is that Yamaguchi, as the incumbent, had an edge in terms of name recognition and that the local party apparat are all his longtimecronies associates.
Given those criteria (Are they reflective of Koga's stated goal of "picking a candidate who can win"?) it is not as if the outcome was in doubt.
Shichijō's prize for his second place finish in the contest is a listing "in the upper part" of the LDP's party list for Shikoku bloc seats.
Some prize.
Unlike the resolution of the Gifu #1 dispute where Satō Yukari was able to extract a candidacy in a district seat, opening up the possibility of her defecting to the opposition, Shichijō has only received the opportunity to campaign for the party that has slighted him and whose policy direction he most likely opposes--then accept from it a seat that will always belong to the LDP, never to him.
If Shichijō spurns Koga's offer, he likely ends up with nothing. The DPJ will not take him in--he probably does not have enough of a local presence to make him a worthwhile convert...and he must stay in the LDP until the day the current Diet is dissolved.
A mean-spirited, take-it-or-leave-it-offer from Koga...which means he is finally getting serious about the party's head count in the Diet, post-election. He is also setting the pattern for the resolution of all the remaining disputed seats: the exile will be the party's nominee in the district, the assassin will stay in his/her bloc seat--if the LDP does well enough in the party line vote to win the bloc seat, that is.
In the fight over which of the LDP's candidates for the Tokushima #2 district shall represent the LDP in the next House of Representatives election, he has chosen the party exile Yamaguchi Shun'ichi over the Koizumi Junichirō-appointed assassin Shichijō Akira.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports that Koga came to choose Yamaguchi over Shichijō based on the results of public opinion polls and levels of support for either candidate among Tokushima party members. Of course, what the report does not say is that Yamaguchi, as the incumbent, had an edge in terms of name recognition and that the local party apparat are all his longtime
Given those criteria (Are they reflective of Koga's stated goal of "picking a candidate who can win"?) it is not as if the outcome was in doubt.
Shichijō's prize for his second place finish in the contest is a listing "in the upper part" of the LDP's party list for Shikoku bloc seats.
Some prize.
Unlike the resolution of the Gifu #1 dispute where Satō Yukari was able to extract a candidacy in a district seat, opening up the possibility of her defecting to the opposition, Shichijō has only received the opportunity to campaign for the party that has slighted him and whose policy direction he most likely opposes--then accept from it a seat that will always belong to the LDP, never to him.
If Shichijō spurns Koga's offer, he likely ends up with nothing. The DPJ will not take him in--he probably does not have enough of a local presence to make him a worthwhile convert...and he must stay in the LDP until the day the current Diet is dissolved.
A mean-spirited, take-it-or-leave-it-offer from Koga...which means he is finally getting serious about the party's head count in the Diet, post-election. He is also setting the pattern for the resolution of all the remaining disputed seats: the exile will be the party's nominee in the district, the assassin will stay in his/her bloc seat--if the LDP does well enough in the party line vote to win the bloc seat, that is.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Making it up as we go along
In a recent post, the Japan Observer noted a shift in tactics in the LDP leadership's approach toward moving the road/gasoline levy legislation through the Diet. Rather than pushing hard for the ruling coalition's 10 year, 59 trillion yen plan, LDP Secretary General Ibuki Bunmei and LDP Election Measures Chairman Koga Makoto have "begun to indicate they would be willing to compromise"--provided that the DPJ provide its own bill first.
When the Japan Observer speaks of a shift in tactics, however, he is referring only to a change in the tactics of public relations.
The parliamentary tactics have always been 1) submit ridiculously gargantuan plan, 2) wait for the Democratic Party to offer a counterplan and 3) cut a deal between the two plans.
This has not changed.
What has changed is the LDP leadership, which had heretofore been emphasizing its readiness to confront the resistance and irresponsibility of the DPJ (Manly men are we, the spawn of menly men!) now is showing more feminine side--that it is open to compromise, but only if the DPJ makes its move ("Why don't they call? Don't they know we're ready to meet them halfway?").
The currently tripping Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo echoed the softer line from Seoul.
However, the memo to "be nice" has not been able to alter the behavior of the one person for whom the repositioning could make a difference: House of Representatives Parliamentary Affairs Chairman Ōshima Tadamori.
[An asided - Ōshima is the only politician in the upper ranks of the party who manages to speak in paragraphs. Rather than spooling out the usual jumbled, emotive gurglings of his colleagues, Ōshima bangs out big architectural, intellectual structures, with almost visible beams, struts and joists. It is a real delight to hear him talk. ]
Over the weekend, he set a deadline of this Thursday (February 28) for the passage of both the budget and ancillary, enabling legislation, including the gasoline levy legislation.
Ōshima had little choice: he was starring into the abyss. Unless I am mistaken (Do you really want me to go through the list? - Editor) the House of Representatives must pass the budget by Thursday. Otherwise the budget will not go into effect (the budget automatic override period is only 30 days) in time for the April 1 beginning of the new fiscal year.
So come Friday, unless a miracle (a breakout of humility and self-awareness in the ruling coalition leadership) occurs, the whole aggressive, stinking pile of legislation will land slam on the desks of the members of the House of Councillors--leaving the parties to negotiating a compromise while the legislation is being raked over the coals in televised House of Councillors Budget Committee deliberations.
Fun, fun, fun...and not a T-bird in sight.
When the Japan Observer speaks of a shift in tactics, however, he is referring only to a change in the tactics of public relations.
The parliamentary tactics have always been 1) submit ridiculously gargantuan plan, 2) wait for the Democratic Party to offer a counterplan and 3) cut a deal between the two plans.
This has not changed.
What has changed is the LDP leadership, which had heretofore been emphasizing its readiness to confront the resistance and irresponsibility of the DPJ (Manly men are we, the spawn of menly men!) now is showing more feminine side--that it is open to compromise, but only if the DPJ makes its move ("Why don't they call? Don't they know we're ready to meet them halfway?").
The currently tripping Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo echoed the softer line from Seoul.
However, the memo to "be nice" has not been able to alter the behavior of the one person for whom the repositioning could make a difference: House of Representatives Parliamentary Affairs Chairman Ōshima Tadamori.
[An asided - Ōshima is the only politician in the upper ranks of the party who manages to speak in paragraphs. Rather than spooling out the usual jumbled, emotive gurglings of his colleagues, Ōshima bangs out big architectural, intellectual structures, with almost visible beams, struts and joists. It is a real delight to hear him talk. ]
Over the weekend, he set a deadline of this Thursday (February 28) for the passage of both the budget and ancillary, enabling legislation, including the gasoline levy legislation.
Ōshima had little choice: he was starring into the abyss. Unless I am mistaken (Do you really want me to go through the list? - Editor) the House of Representatives must pass the budget by Thursday. Otherwise the budget will not go into effect (the budget automatic override period is only 30 days) in time for the April 1 beginning of the new fiscal year.
So come Friday, unless a miracle (a breakout of humility and self-awareness in the ruling coalition leadership) occurs, the whole aggressive, stinking pile of legislation will land slam on the desks of the members of the House of Councillors--leaving the parties to negotiating a compromise while the legislation is being raked over the coals in televised House of Councillors Budget Committee deliberations.
Fun, fun, fun...and not a T-bird in sight.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Smiles of a winter's night
With broad grins and a handclasp of solidarity, House of Representatives members and electoral rivals Noda Seiko (Gifu #1) and Satō Yukari (Tōkai Proportional) demonstrated their happiness yesterday at the Liberal Democratic Party leadership's clever resolution of the dispute over which of them would be running in a district seat in the next House of Representatives election.
It turns out both of them will be--Noda in the Gifu #1 seat the pair contested in 2005 and Satō in the Tokyo #5 seat being vacated by the retiring Kosugi Takashi--himself a beneficiary of the Koizumi landslide of 2005.
What a wonderful "all's well that ends well" result for both of these impressive and attractive candidates.
If only we could hear what the pair of women were thinking, behind the smiles...
If LDP Secretary-General Ibuki Bunmei and LDP Elections Measures Chairman Koga Makoto think they dodged a bullet on this one, they are complete effing fools.
It turns out both of them will be--Noda in the Gifu #1 seat the pair contested in 2005 and Satō in the Tokyo #5 seat being vacated by the retiring Kosugi Takashi--himself a beneficiary of the Koizumi landslide of 2005.
What a wonderful "all's well that ends well" result for both of these impressive and attractive candidates.
If only we could hear what the pair of women were thinking, behind the smiles...
Photo courtesy: Nikkei Shimbun
If LDP Secretary-General Ibuki Bunmei and LDP Elections Measures Chairman Koga Makoto think they dodged a bullet on this one, they are complete effing fools.
Friday, December 07, 2007
The Fab Four on Tour
Chairman of the LDP Election Strategy Council Koga Makoto spent some quality time yesterday with the Yamanashi Prefecture LDP Prefectural League. It was the last stop on the seven-week "Extraordinary Contrition Tour" organized by Koga for the top four executives of the LDP in the wake of the devastating losses in the July 29 House of Councillors elections.
Koga, Secretary-General Ibuki Bunmei, Policy Research Council Chairman Tanigaki Sadakazu and Chairman of the General Council Nikai Toshihiro visited the prefectural party chapters, the prefectural Kōmeitō offices and the local offices of support groups such as the Japan War-Bereaved Association (sixty-two years and counting) in 42 prefectures .
O tsukaresama deshita.
It is really too bad that the LDP has not made a special effort to document and celebrate this fantastic tour of the Japanese outback. The boys have tried so hard.
So I am trying to help.
The Yonyaku - Magical "Must We?" Tour
But I have only a sophomoric sense of humor...and I don't have Photoshop.
Koga, Secretary-General Ibuki Bunmei, Policy Research Council Chairman Tanigaki Sadakazu and Chairman of the General Council Nikai Toshihiro visited the prefectural party chapters, the prefectural Kōmeitō offices and the local offices of support groups such as the Japan War-Bereaved Association (sixty-two years and counting) in 42 prefectures .
O tsukaresama deshita.
It is really too bad that the LDP has not made a special effort to document and celebrate this fantastic tour of the Japanese outback. The boys have tried so hard.
So I am trying to help.
The Yonyaku - Magical "Must We?" TourMagical "Must We?" Tour
(I'm a) Fool With A Bill
Lying
Buru Jei Ue
Your Budget We'll Blow
I Am So Worthless
Hello (LDP) Goodbye (DPJ)
Protected Rice Fields Forever
Pretty Lame
Baby You're a Poor Sap
All We Need's Your Votes
But I have only a sophomoric sense of humor...and I don't have Photoshop.
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