House of Councillors Election 2010 - Last Call

The author of Twisted Flowers has laid down his marker: the Democratic Party of Japan will top out at 52 seats tomorrow, far from the 60 it needs for independent control of the House of Councillors.

It is indeed almost certain the DPJ will fail to achieve its goal of 60 seats. However, the party should get within striking distance, doing far better in the district elections than projected.

Markers laid down for Sunday's results:

District seats (73)

DPJ 39
LDP 27
New Komeito 3
Your Party 2
SDP 1
Independents 1

Proportional seats (48)

DPJ 19
LDP 11
New Komeito 7
Your Party 7
JCP 3
SDP 1

Final totals (121)

DPJ 58
LDP 38
New Komeito 10
Your Party 9
JCP 3
SDP 2
Independents 1

Voter turnout: 56,000,000

Voters on some of the outer islands have already dropped their ballots into the ballot boxes (they vote early so that bad weather will not prevent the delivery of their sealed ballot boxes to the counting centers) and over 15% of the likely final turnout has already delivered its verdict through early voting at the ward and local municipality offices.

It has been a long road to Election Day...and the game is afoot.

The wild card is voter turnout. If turnout exceeds 58,000,000, rabbits will be pulled out of hats.