Check list for anyone watching for signs of "Oops, Not Everything Is Going According To Plan."
1) Sudden eruption of seemingly serious and repeated talk about constitutional revision (Link)
CHECK!
2) Ridiculous ratcheting up of the rhetoric regarding the historical significance of the Abe Adminnistration (Link)
CHECK!
Thirty-six utterances of the word "reform" in his third Budget Speech. Yow.
Good luck with that, Abe-san.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Color Me Cynical - Islamic Terrorist Threat Edition
The Japanese government is supposedly at a heightened state of alert in the aftermath of the killing of hostage Goto Kenji and the threat made to Japan by ISIL.
But only overseas it seems. (Link)
Apparently here in this blessed land (and never, ever has my catchphrase been more apt) the Most Important Man In The Government and possibly The Most Powerful Man In The World's Third Largest Economy can be met walking, accompanied only by a distinctly unarmed and unmuscular young male aide, toward his office in the Prime Minister's Residence using the underground corridor of Tameike Sanno Station at 7:20 in the morning, his identity and person protected by a down jacket (You want to know the color? That's classified) and a surgical mask.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga, if you want me to believe that your government is taking the threats of terrorists seriously, you might want to consider pretending you take terrorist threats seriously.
Like having at least ONE security officer walking with you, when you venture out in public.
Or at perhaps wearing a hat.
But thank you for proving to me, quite inadvertently and sweetly, that all the talk of Japan becoming a normal nation is just bombastic performance -- that you, of all persons, would find it expedient, during this time of heightened alert, to walk amongst us, like a modern day Mito Komon -- but a million times better than Mito Komon because you are the central government and you have no team of quasi-Ninja martial arts masters or a magical tobacco container to protect you.
Just a cotton mask.
But only overseas it seems. (Link)
Apparently here in this blessed land (and never, ever has my catchphrase been more apt) the Most Important Man In The Government and possibly The Most Powerful Man In The World's Third Largest Economy can be met walking, accompanied only by a distinctly unarmed and unmuscular young male aide, toward his office in the Prime Minister's Residence using the underground corridor of Tameike Sanno Station at 7:20 in the morning, his identity and person protected by a down jacket (You want to know the color? That's classified) and a surgical mask.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga, if you want me to believe that your government is taking the threats of terrorists seriously, you might want to consider pretending you take terrorist threats seriously.
Like having at least ONE security officer walking with you, when you venture out in public.
Or at perhaps wearing a hat.
But thank you for proving to me, quite inadvertently and sweetly, that all the talk of Japan becoming a normal nation is just bombastic performance -- that you, of all persons, would find it expedient, during this time of heightened alert, to walk amongst us, like a modern day Mito Komon -- but a million times better than Mito Komon because you are the central government and you have no team of quasi-Ninja martial arts masters or a magical tobacco container to protect you.
Just a cotton mask.
Paper Shrines Of Japan
I was meandering without significant aim through the canyons of books in Maruzen's massive Tama Center store (if there are not 30,000 titles on the shelves I would be surprised) when I chanced upon a quiet, unostentatious display in the "NON-FICTION: WAR" section of the Young Readers area.
Only it was not actually not a display. Someone had set books in an unusual way, face outward, with uneven spacing, almost in disarray.
The titles, furthermore, did not all seem appropriate. Documenting War (Senso o shuzai suru) and Prayers for Rwanda (Ruwanda no inori) fit under the rubric "non-fiction: war" but Born in an Aids Village (Eizu no mura ni umarete) about a teen mother in Romania did not.
Then my heart fell to the floor.
Of course the books belonged together: they were all by Goto Kenji.
Whether intentional or not, the non-display display of Goto's books was right above the shelf of books by and about Malala Yousafzai.
Ms. Yousafzai survived her peace-seeking confrontation with fanatics (who despite their vanity and poses are not servants of the Prophet. Indeed, they are only the scrapings-off of geopolitics).
Goto did not.
* * *
If you are looking, in this year of the 70th anniversary, for a book explaining the postwar struggle over memories of World War II -- and how this struggle affects contemporary Japanese politics, pick up a copy of Dr. Franziska Seraphim's War Memory and Social Politics in Japan, 1945-2005. The cover, which I reproduce below, is of that little remembered and today unimaginable September day when the Japan Communist Party took over the grounds of Yasukuni Shrine.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
JA Zenchu Reform - Really?
Wow. An instance where one really has to read a text all the way to the end...and then wonder "Where in a news organization could one find an employee capable of such mendacious wordcraft as to devise such a headline?" (Link)
Ignoring the absurd opening claim for now, what is one to make of the body of the story? Remember that the Yomiuri Shimbun is the shameless snake-oil platform claiming that every single thing Abe Shinzo attempts is a majestic work of pure genius.
OK, not all the time. But most of the time.
However here, not even the Yomiuri Shimbun could pretend for more than a few seconds that there is a real reform story in the Abe reform of JA-Zenchu.
Read that last paragraph again. When I read it I hear the echoes of the last lines of Animal Farm by George Orwell.
As for the reform plan, all I can see it doing is taking away from JA-Zenchu its serious responsibility to oversee the accounts of the mid-level cooperatives, turning over the oversight function to accounting firms -- which, post-2008, we know to be a terrific, risk-free way of guaranteeing better governance at these bodies -- this in the industry that plays the truly minor role of growing and delivering the food we are supposed to eat.
Later -The Liberal Democratic Party is now complaining about opposition parties denouncing the reform proposals as empty and pointless. (Link-J)
Ignoring the absurd opening claim for now, what is one to make of the body of the story? Remember that the Yomiuri Shimbun is the shameless snake-oil platform claiming that every single thing Abe Shinzo attempts is a majestic work of pure genius.
OK, not all the time. But most of the time.
However here, not even the Yomiuri Shimbun could pretend for more than a few seconds that there is a real reform story in the Abe reform of JA-Zenchu.
Read that last paragraph again. When I read it I hear the echoes of the last lines of Animal Farm by George Orwell.
As for the reform plan, all I can see it doing is taking away from JA-Zenchu its serious responsibility to oversee the accounts of the mid-level cooperatives, turning over the oversight function to accounting firms -- which, post-2008, we know to be a terrific, risk-free way of guaranteeing better governance at these bodies -- this in the industry that plays the truly minor role of growing and delivering the food we are supposed to eat.
Later -The Liberal Democratic Party is now complaining about opposition parties denouncing the reform proposals as empty and pointless. (Link-J)
Monday, February 09, 2015
Reading Kingston On Abe And Samuels
Professor Jeff Kingston has produced a highly readable essay on the Prime Minister's moves last week to promote his security agenda. The effort has been multi-pronged, with thrusts on constitutional revision, expansion of the geographic area covered by self-defense, expansion of the definition of self-defense to include damage to the Japanese economy and establishment of a special forces rescue unit. Coming on the heels of what was a diplomatic and humanitarian failure -- everybody died and a vengeful bombing campaign erupted -- Abe-san's full out run for military solutions to international political problems, seems a bit...unseemly. (Link)
Kingston refers to this behavior as swinging for the fences. To be sure, Abe and Company do have incentives to propose way too much in the knowledge that in the back-and-forth of domestic politics ambitious proposals are whittled down to something the country's editorialists can disagree upon.
However, Abe and Co. have a another important reason to overreach now: Abe is the Anti-Koizumi.
Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro could rely upon what mystified commentators called the Koizumi Magic. On seemingly any issue, Koizumi could transform, through reasoned argument, adamantine will, and an ineffable something, what was a Majority Against into a Majority For. (Archive)
Abe The Second Coming has been demonstrating a consistent and astonishing capacity to do the opposite. On any and every marquee policy proposal Abe and his colleagues drive voter support into the ground -- while leaving the Cabinet's popularity unchanged. The more Abe and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide talk about a policy change, the lower the level of voter support, at least as measured by public opinion polls. One would think that out of pure luck Abe and Co. would chance upon some issue where the stance taken by the Abe government would increase in popularity over time.
No such luck.
So Abe must seek the maximum at the outset, at the risk of appearing to be far ahead of the public mood, out of the practical realization that as he tries to explain what he wants to he will erode whatever confidence the public may have in the wisdom of what he is proposing.
A corollary to the above is that Abe and his team members have a strong incentive to cut off debate at what seems ta midpoint and before the discussion has moved to a deeper level. If Abe is to get anything done, he has to cut his losses and move on -- at the outset.
Which will one day make for a rather confusing and unsatisfying historical record.
As for Kingston's conversation with Richard Samuels, Dr. Samuels (full disclosure: Dr. Samuels is a friend) gives his own paradigms short shrift. In addition to the advocates of rapid expansion of Japan's security program and the advocates of a retreat to first principles of Japanese post-1945 security policy mentioned in the Kingston essay, a full Samuels treatment would fine a third group arguing that even though the attempts to negotiate a hostage release ended up in failure, such negotiations have ended up in failure for every national government other than that of Turkey -- and one shudders to think what the Turks gave up to secure their hostages.
Japan, according to this view, did no worse or better than anyone else. Japan is therefor not on the wrong path in terms of its security policy development. The government and the people should not panic.
Samuels explores this tripartite division of responses to threat and catastrophe in his most recent book 3.11 Disaster and Change in Japan. Amaterasu willing, 3.11 could see the light of day in a Japanese language edition sometime soon.
The key takeaway -- and Samuels hammers away at this in 3.11 and in his public appearances -- is that almost no one comes away from these experiences with his/her assumptions shaken. Those who wanted to accelerate policy change and/or switch Japan's policy direction will find the government's inability to save Yukawa and Goto demonstrates the rightness of their views. Those who advocated steady-as-we-go, progressive, "normalizing" policies will downplay the failure and declare the maintenance of a cool, cerebral demeanor paramount. Those who have disliked the expansion and transformation of Japan's security behavior, advocating either a slowdown or more often a reversal of the processes of the last three decades, will see Yukawa's and Goto's deaths as justifying their caution and skepticism.
Some readers may find Kingston's tone and vocabulary overblown. Consider them responses to the extraordinary gall displayed by certain members of the Japanese foreign policy commentariat who seen it appropriate to condemn/decry the sharp criticism of the Abe government. The calls for national unity and support of the Abe government made by these person who shall remain nameless would fall on more receptive ears if residents of this blessed land could forget the vicious, opportunistic and avaricious attacks showered upon the Kan government in the days immediately following the triple disaster of 3.11, even as the country was reeling from the disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and an unfolding massive nuclear accident.
No solidarity then, friends, means no solidarity now -- and no rhetorical restraint now either.
Kingston refers to this behavior as swinging for the fences. To be sure, Abe and Company do have incentives to propose way too much in the knowledge that in the back-and-forth of domestic politics ambitious proposals are whittled down to something the country's editorialists can disagree upon.
However, Abe and Co. have a another important reason to overreach now: Abe is the Anti-Koizumi.
Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro could rely upon what mystified commentators called the Koizumi Magic. On seemingly any issue, Koizumi could transform, through reasoned argument, adamantine will, and an ineffable something, what was a Majority Against into a Majority For. (Archive)
Abe The Second Coming has been demonstrating a consistent and astonishing capacity to do the opposite. On any and every marquee policy proposal Abe and his colleagues drive voter support into the ground -- while leaving the Cabinet's popularity unchanged. The more Abe and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide talk about a policy change, the lower the level of voter support, at least as measured by public opinion polls. One would think that out of pure luck Abe and Co. would chance upon some issue where the stance taken by the Abe government would increase in popularity over time.
No such luck.
So Abe must seek the maximum at the outset, at the risk of appearing to be far ahead of the public mood, out of the practical realization that as he tries to explain what he wants to he will erode whatever confidence the public may have in the wisdom of what he is proposing.
A corollary to the above is that Abe and his team members have a strong incentive to cut off debate at what seems ta midpoint and before the discussion has moved to a deeper level. If Abe is to get anything done, he has to cut his losses and move on -- at the outset.
Which will one day make for a rather confusing and unsatisfying historical record.
As for Kingston's conversation with Richard Samuels, Dr. Samuels (full disclosure: Dr. Samuels is a friend) gives his own paradigms short shrift. In addition to the advocates of rapid expansion of Japan's security program and the advocates of a retreat to first principles of Japanese post-1945 security policy mentioned in the Kingston essay, a full Samuels treatment would fine a third group arguing that even though the attempts to negotiate a hostage release ended up in failure, such negotiations have ended up in failure for every national government other than that of Turkey -- and one shudders to think what the Turks gave up to secure their hostages.
Japan, according to this view, did no worse or better than anyone else. Japan is therefor not on the wrong path in terms of its security policy development. The government and the people should not panic.
Samuels explores this tripartite division of responses to threat and catastrophe in his most recent book 3.11 Disaster and Change in Japan. Amaterasu willing, 3.11 could see the light of day in a Japanese language edition sometime soon.
The key takeaway -- and Samuels hammers away at this in 3.11 and in his public appearances -- is that almost no one comes away from these experiences with his/her assumptions shaken. Those who wanted to accelerate policy change and/or switch Japan's policy direction will find the government's inability to save Yukawa and Goto demonstrates the rightness of their views. Those who advocated steady-as-we-go, progressive, "normalizing" policies will downplay the failure and declare the maintenance of a cool, cerebral demeanor paramount. Those who have disliked the expansion and transformation of Japan's security behavior, advocating either a slowdown or more often a reversal of the processes of the last three decades, will see Yukawa's and Goto's deaths as justifying their caution and skepticism.
Some readers may find Kingston's tone and vocabulary overblown. Consider them responses to the extraordinary gall displayed by certain members of the Japanese foreign policy commentariat who seen it appropriate to condemn/decry the sharp criticism of the Abe government. The calls for national unity and support of the Abe government made by these person who shall remain nameless would fall on more receptive ears if residents of this blessed land could forget the vicious, opportunistic and avaricious attacks showered upon the Kan government in the days immediately following the triple disaster of 3.11, even as the country was reeling from the disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and an unfolding massive nuclear accident.
No solidarity then, friends, means no solidarity now -- and no rhetorical restraint now either.
Abe Shinzo's Incredible Tell
The Tokyo Shimbun's cartoonist extraordinaire Sato Masaaki had another great one up in Saturday's newspaper, lampooning the prime minister's reactions to last week actions in the Diet and at the Kantei.
In the first panel, Prime Minister Abe is looking down and Finance Minister Aso Taro is looking angrily annoyed in the House of Councillors Budget committee session. Both have good reason to be both subdued and pissed, as the prime minister came under withering opposition criticism for having provoked ISIL with less-than-fully considered comments in Cairo and a too feebly critical stance toward Israel during his visit there. (Link and Link J - video)
The side board reads: "As for the hostage incidents, day after day in the Diet, an exhausted countenance..."
w.jpg)
But then, in the second panel, someone says the magic words "Revise the Constitution!" (let us just say it is Funada Hajime, the Liberal Democratic Party's project team leader on revising the constitution - Link) and sproing, the hitherto seemingly knackered PM leaps to his feet -- which is what he did in the middle of last week, figuratively, going on the offensive on constitutional revision at a time when one would have expected him to be a little more circumspect and reflective. (Link)
The caption at the bottom reads, "Still full of vitality after all!"
Guess constitutional revision is a big Abe favorite. Who would have known?
What I love best about the cartoon is the attention paid to Abe's body language. In the first panel, Abe is depicted holding his hands. Sure, everyone has to do something with his or her hands during the 6 hours plus he or she is sitting in the chairs in Diet Budget session (there is a lunch break after the three hour point). Some Cabinet members hang on to the armrests like they are trying to ride out a gale. Others grip sheaves of paper, some flippantly, some as if for dear life.
Abe, however, has a particular nervous habit. He grasps the three fingers of one hand in between the thumb and forefinger of the other, squeezing and wringing his fingers. He does this hand dance most frenetically when he is being put on the spot, like he was during last week's questioning about his actions and the actions of his government during the Yukawa/Goto hostage crisis.
Sato must have been watching last week's session on the NHK live broadcast. NHK's cameras lingered on the PM even when someone else was speaking, giving the pubkic an up close look at the PM's nervous "tell."
_hnds.jpg)
I am not fond of writers who use the word "should" when writing about the politics of Japan. However I would suggest to Prime Minister Abe that if any of the casinos that he has been eager to see built actually gets built maybe he should stay away from the poker tables.
In the first panel, Prime Minister Abe is looking down and Finance Minister Aso Taro is looking angrily annoyed in the House of Councillors Budget committee session. Both have good reason to be both subdued and pissed, as the prime minister came under withering opposition criticism for having provoked ISIL with less-than-fully considered comments in Cairo and a too feebly critical stance toward Israel during his visit there. (Link and Link J - video)
The side board reads: "As for the hostage incidents, day after day in the Diet, an exhausted countenance..."
w
.jpg)
But then, in the second panel, someone says the magic words "Revise the Constitution!" (let us just say it is Funada Hajime, the Liberal Democratic Party's project team leader on revising the constitution - Link) and sproing, the hitherto seemingly knackered PM leaps to his feet -- which is what he did in the middle of last week, figuratively, going on the offensive on constitutional revision at a time when one would have expected him to be a little more circumspect and reflective. (Link)
The caption at the bottom reads, "Still full of vitality after all!"
Guess constitutional revision is a big Abe favorite. Who would have known?
What I love best about the cartoon is the attention paid to Abe's body language. In the first panel, Abe is depicted holding his hands. Sure, everyone has to do something with his or her hands during the 6 hours plus he or she is sitting in the chairs in Diet Budget session (there is a lunch break after the three hour point). Some Cabinet members hang on to the armrests like they are trying to ride out a gale. Others grip sheaves of paper, some flippantly, some as if for dear life.
Abe, however, has a particular nervous habit. He grasps the three fingers of one hand in between the thumb and forefinger of the other, squeezing and wringing his fingers. He does this hand dance most frenetically when he is being put on the spot, like he was during last week's questioning about his actions and the actions of his government during the Yukawa/Goto hostage crisis.
Sato must have been watching last week's session on the NHK live broadcast. NHK's cameras lingered on the PM even when someone else was speaking, giving the pubkic an up close look at the PM's nervous "tell."
_hnds.jpg)
I am not fond of writers who use the word "should" when writing about the politics of Japan. However I would suggest to Prime Minister Abe that if any of the casinos that he has been eager to see built actually gets built maybe he should stay away from the poker tables.
Wednesday, February 04, 2015
Very Kind Of Them #47
If the Spirit, Who is Life, exacted an eye for an eye, or a tooth for a tooth, this world would indeed be peopled with the blind and the toothless.Another terrible day...(Link)
Henry Powell Spring (1944)
One of the correspondents of Voice of America called me up yesterday and asked me about the deaths of Yukawa Haruna and Goto Kenji. VoA was then kind enough to include bits of the conversation in a report (Link). To deaths of Yukawa and Goto, we must add three more.
As for the expression of an admixture of emotions from the PM (Link-J and Link-E) I confess my own reaction is one of exhaustion.
George, it is hard to be still waiting for that day of yours. (Link)
As for the affiliation mentioned in the report, it is, in the words of the Nixon White House, no longer operative. I am an adjunct fellow of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University Japan and an advisor at Langley Esquire.
Tuesday, February 03, 2015
Very Kind Of Her #46
Miyake Kunihiko says that it is. (Link)
I say, "Not according to the opinion polls, it ain't." (Link)
Miyake-san (whom I like a lot, for a good many reasons) has gone overboard in his utterances, carried away by rhetoric and emotion...just like the man who is ever seeking Miyake-san's advice, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo (no exaggeration: Miyake-san is the most important of Abe's private sector security advisors). The PM has been flying off the handle a lot of late, with Chief Cabinet Secretary being forced to step in and reel back expectations.
Many thanks to Elaine Kurtenbach for sending me her questions.
I say, "Not according to the opinion polls, it ain't." (Link)
Miyake-san (whom I like a lot, for a good many reasons) has gone overboard in his utterances, carried away by rhetoric and emotion...just like the man who is ever seeking Miyake-san's advice, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo (no exaggeration: Miyake-san is the most important of Abe's private sector security advisors). The PM has been flying off the handle a lot of late, with Chief Cabinet Secretary being forced to step in and reel back expectations.
Many thanks to Elaine Kurtenbach for sending me her questions.
Very Kind Of Them #45
The folks behind the Number 1 Shimbun, the house publication of the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan, offered to publish some of my musings about last month's Democratic Party of Japan leadership election.
Very, very kind of them -- and brave. (Link)
Very, very kind of them -- and brave. (Link)
Monday, February 02, 2015
Très Gentil De Son Sa Part #44
Daniel Eskenazi asked me what the Japanese public's response to the death of Yukawa Haruna and now Goto Keniji will be. I told him that all I know is what the public opinion polls have been saying. (Link - en Français)
[Nota Bene - link may require registration. If you do not want permanent access to Le Temps, there is the temporary workaround via Google News.]
[Nota Bene - link may require registration. If you do not want permanent access to Le Temps, there is the temporary workaround via Google News.]
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