As the indefatigable Isabel Reynolds has already reported for Reuters, the Democratic Party of Japan has received a huge ratings bump from the resignation of Hatoyama Yukio as prime minister and DPJ party leader and from the election of Kan Naoto to both posts. Support for its major rival, the moribund be not still quite dead Liberal Democratic Party remains stable. The major losers, according to the poll, are the responses displaying "a pox on both their houses" mentality.
Whereas the last poll conducted less than a week ago (May 29-30) found that the percentage of voters supporting the DPJ at only 21%, below the 22% supporting the LDP, the poll conducted over June 4-5 -- the day of the election of Kan as DPJ leader and PM and his first full day in office -- finds the percentage of voters calling themselves supporters of the DPJ at 36%. Support for the LDP remainds essentially unchanged, at 21%. The predictable drop in the support for Your Party, the default party of fiscal stringency and bureaucrat bashing, is relatively mild: from 11% to 8%. The stunning figure is in the drop of persons declaring themselves supporters of no party: 28% a week ago, 18% in the newest poll.
Which party do you support? [May 29-30 in parentheses]
DPJ 36% (21%)
LDP 21% (22%)
Your Party 8% (11%)
Communist Party of Japan 4% (2%)
Social Democratic Party 4% (5%)
New Komeito 2% (4%)
Peoples New Party lss thn 1% (1%)
Sunrise Party lss thn 1% (lss thn 1%)
Japan New Party lss thn 1% (lss thn 1%)
New Renaissance Party lss thn 1% (lss thn 1%)
Do not support any party 18% (28%)
Don't know 3% (3%)
The results of the Kyodo polls should offer some reassure to those who believe that Japan has comprehensible and even normal politics.
First, the march to a two party system goes on: despite a plethora of alternatives, the LDP remains the alternative to the DPJ. The LDP's current support level of 21% is pretty close to where it was nine months ago -- a nadir, yes but also a a floor below which the party cannot seemingly long sink. Aside from Your Party (which has policies virtually identical to the ones Kan will likely be implementing through the DPJ) the conservative alternatives to the LDP like Sunrise and New Renaissance have not caught on. They are micro-parties. After the House of Councillors election they will remain micro-parties, if they are not indeed reduced to nano-parties.
Second, as in European democracies, the majority of the populace votes center-left, not center-right. The Communists and the Socialists, predicted by many during the Koizumi years to be headed for the dustbin of history, have regained strength. The hard line conservatives, including the coalition partner PNP, which advocates socialist economics and conservative social policies, have close to zero appeal.
As for the question of which party the voters intend to cast their proportional seat ballots for in the July elections, which are now seen as likely to be held on July 25 rather than on July 11, the results tell much the same story as the support numbers.
For which party will cast your proportional seat vote in the July elections?
[May 29-30 in parentheses]
DPJ 33% (20%)
LDP 23% (21%)
Your Party 9% (11%)
Communist Party of Japan 5% (3%)
Social Democratic Party 4% (5%)
New Komeito 3% (5%)
Sunrise Party 1% (lss thn 1%)
Japan New Party 1% (lss thn 1%)
New Renaissance Party 1% (lss thn 1%)
Peoples New Party lss thn 1% (1%)
Nippon Soushinto lss thn 1% (lss thn 1%)
Don't know 18% (27%)
If these support numbers hold -- a big if given the volatility of the views of non-aligned and Your Party voters -- the DPJ is pretty much guaranteed to defend the 53 seats it has up for reelection. While such a result would leave the party far short of the seats it needs for an unbridled legislative mandate, with majorities in both house of the Diet, it is a far cry better than the outlook of only a week ago -- which saw the party losing as many or more than 15 seats.
Sunday, June 06, 2010
Friday, June 04, 2010
What Does the Election of Naoto Kan As DPJ Leader Mean?
- Where You Stand Depends On Where You Sit
For only the second time in 50 years, the incoming prime minister will be a representative of a primarily urban or suburban district. The other such prime minister of the last 50 years? The fabulously successful Koizumi Jun'ichiro.
Having a PM coming from a district where the voters are almost all white collar salaried workers or members of the managerial classes will likely have a significant effect on economic policy. Urban and suburban voters tend to see government as a regulator and a guarantor of fairness rather than as a source of largess. Indeed, many urban and suburban tend to see the state through corporate lenses: when there is a shortfall in revenues or an economic slowdown, the correct policy response is cutbacks and restructuring, making darn sure that the only projects getting funded are the ones likely to have an economic return.
As Finance Minister, Kan has already demonstrated an easy acceptance of the MOF view that Japan's most severe economic problem is its burgeoning public debt, with budget cutting and increases in the consumption tax as the policy tools of choice. That such policies are likely to constrict economic growth is relegated to the realm of unfortunate details.
Kan's representing a bedroom community of Tokyo also improves his chances of remaining popular over the long-term (should he prevail in September's DPJ leadership election, that is). Kan speaks the language and thinks the thoughts of the 80% of Japan's population crowded in and around urban centers. Just by reflecting the views of the people who have been electing him since 1980, including in 2005 when LDP landslide left him the DPJ's only surviving district representative in the Tokyo Metropolitan District, will have him in sync with over three quarters of Japan's population -- something his immediate predecessors as DPJ party president could only be vicariously and insincerely.
- I Got Plenty of Nothin'
It should not be surprising that Hatoyama and Ozawa had problems with managing their campaign finances: they both had so much money to manage. In contrast to the vast sums his predecessors had to keep moving around, Kan's personal wealth or the amounts of money he controls are both minor. That he has a clean reputation may be simply a matter of a dearth of funds rather than a surfeit of personal virtue.
That Kan is seen as clean is hugely important to the reestablishment of the DPJ's image as a party that was simply better than the Liberal Democratic Party. Having the financial irregularities-plagued Hatoyama and Ozawa remaining ensconced in the two top party leadership positions these past few months has infuriated the voters, who gave the DPJ its chance last year not based on the likelihood that the party would deliver on all its campaign promises (in fact over 90% of the population doubted the DPJ would) but because the populace had simply had it with the scandal-riddled, vote-scrounging spectacle that was post-1993 LDP.
- Goodby Tanaka-san, This Time For Good
Ozawa Ichiro has played the electoral map as it exists as well as anyone ever has. He has made the deals and promoted the policies that made the DPJ into winners.
Unfortunately, the map and rulebook Ozawa has been working with had been drafted with the purpose of keeping the LDP in power. Not surprisingly, the DPJ that was prevailing in the LDP's place increasingly resembled the LDP.
The days of the current electoral map and rulebook have been numbered, however. The sudden collapse last month of the intellectual edifice prohibiting most Internet campaigning, the string of victories in the district courts of lawsuits asking for invalidation of the 2009 House of Representatives election due to the large number of districts with inexplicable deviations from the principle of one-citizen-one-vote; and full-scale assault over the last year upon the public corporations and non-profit entities whose vast armies of scarcely working employees and their retired bureaucrat managers has long been dependable voting banks for the LDP -- all are indicators of the end of the era of the LDP Dependency State. Further out, in response to the coming decennial census, a root-and-branch redistricting of the House of Representatives - the most profound transformation of Japan's political landscape since the replacement of multi-seat constituencies with single-seat districts in the mid-1990s -- is set to take place over the next few years.
Kan's intent to undo the changes Ozawa has made to the DPJ -- exemplified by his confident "for the good of the Japanese politics, the DPJ and himself, Ozawa Ichiro should be quiet for a while" comment and his promise today to reestablish the DPJ's Policy Research Council -- is not mere political theater undertaken with the intent of influencing the voters in advance of the House of Councillors election. Kan knows he must quickly demolish the structures and practices Ozawa seemed to be crafting in order to delay the full flowering of the grand transformation already underway, lest that flowering again be delayed because of a political master's fiddling.
For only the second time in 50 years, the incoming prime minister will be a representative of a primarily urban or suburban district. The other such prime minister of the last 50 years? The fabulously successful Koizumi Jun'ichiro.
Having a PM coming from a district where the voters are almost all white collar salaried workers or members of the managerial classes will likely have a significant effect on economic policy. Urban and suburban voters tend to see government as a regulator and a guarantor of fairness rather than as a source of largess. Indeed, many urban and suburban tend to see the state through corporate lenses: when there is a shortfall in revenues or an economic slowdown, the correct policy response is cutbacks and restructuring, making darn sure that the only projects getting funded are the ones likely to have an economic return.
As Finance Minister, Kan has already demonstrated an easy acceptance of the MOF view that Japan's most severe economic problem is its burgeoning public debt, with budget cutting and increases in the consumption tax as the policy tools of choice. That such policies are likely to constrict economic growth is relegated to the realm of unfortunate details.
Kan's representing a bedroom community of Tokyo also improves his chances of remaining popular over the long-term (should he prevail in September's DPJ leadership election, that is). Kan speaks the language and thinks the thoughts of the 80% of Japan's population crowded in and around urban centers. Just by reflecting the views of the people who have been electing him since 1980, including in 2005 when LDP landslide left him the DPJ's only surviving district representative in the Tokyo Metropolitan District, will have him in sync with over three quarters of Japan's population -- something his immediate predecessors as DPJ party president could only be vicariously and insincerely.
- I Got Plenty of Nothin'
It should not be surprising that Hatoyama and Ozawa had problems with managing their campaign finances: they both had so much money to manage. In contrast to the vast sums his predecessors had to keep moving around, Kan's personal wealth or the amounts of money he controls are both minor. That he has a clean reputation may be simply a matter of a dearth of funds rather than a surfeit of personal virtue.
That Kan is seen as clean is hugely important to the reestablishment of the DPJ's image as a party that was simply better than the Liberal Democratic Party. Having the financial irregularities-plagued Hatoyama and Ozawa remaining ensconced in the two top party leadership positions these past few months has infuriated the voters, who gave the DPJ its chance last year not based on the likelihood that the party would deliver on all its campaign promises (in fact over 90% of the population doubted the DPJ would) but because the populace had simply had it with the scandal-riddled, vote-scrounging spectacle that was post-1993 LDP.
- Goodby Tanaka-san, This Time For Good
Ozawa Ichiro has played the electoral map as it exists as well as anyone ever has. He has made the deals and promoted the policies that made the DPJ into winners.
Unfortunately, the map and rulebook Ozawa has been working with had been drafted with the purpose of keeping the LDP in power. Not surprisingly, the DPJ that was prevailing in the LDP's place increasingly resembled the LDP.
The days of the current electoral map and rulebook have been numbered, however. The sudden collapse last month of the intellectual edifice prohibiting most Internet campaigning, the string of victories in the district courts of lawsuits asking for invalidation of the 2009 House of Representatives election due to the large number of districts with inexplicable deviations from the principle of one-citizen-one-vote; and full-scale assault over the last year upon the public corporations and non-profit entities whose vast armies of scarcely working employees and their retired bureaucrat managers has long been dependable voting banks for the LDP -- all are indicators of the end of the era of the LDP Dependency State. Further out, in response to the coming decennial census, a root-and-branch redistricting of the House of Representatives - the most profound transformation of Japan's political landscape since the replacement of multi-seat constituencies with single-seat districts in the mid-1990s -- is set to take place over the next few years.
Kan's intent to undo the changes Ozawa has made to the DPJ -- exemplified by his confident "for the good of the Japanese politics, the DPJ and himself, Ozawa Ichiro should be quiet for a while" comment and his promise today to reestablish the DPJ's Policy Research Council -- is not mere political theater undertaken with the intent of influencing the voters in advance of the House of Councillors election. Kan knows he must quickly demolish the structures and practices Ozawa seemed to be crafting in order to delay the full flowering of the grand transformation already underway, lest that flowering again be delayed because of a political master's fiddling.
As Regards Today' DPJ Party President Leader Election
The news is full of plots and counterplots, of Democratic Party of Japan Secretary General Ozawa Ichiro trying to cling to power, of Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio having double-crossed Ozawa last week on Futenma.
There is likely some truth in all of these assertions and many more. The press has a story to tell -- "the Democratic Party is riven with factional infighting, with pro-Ozawa and anti-Ozawa forces at each others' throats" -- so members of the DPJ leadership have probably shrugged their shoulders and decided to go along it.
Nevertheless, the simplest analysis is probably the most likely to be true.
1) Everyone is agreement that Kan Naoto was, is and will be the relief pitcher for Hatoyama.
2) For the party to have a real leadership fight just before the election would be deeply damaging to the party's chances of capitalizing on the departures of Hatoyama and Ozawa. So the party needs to put on the semblance of a leadership fight, with only the vaguest outlines of a contest going on (a campaign period of just one day; no participation by the prefectural party chapters...).
3) No one wants to upset the delicate balance of forces within the party. However, for appearance's sake, somebody has to run against Kan. Tarutoko Shinji, a politician no one had ever heard of, has been drafted to provide the alternative. After Kan wins, the party has a new leader and Tarutoko can add "finished in second place in the voting for party leader on June 4, 2010" to his resume.
As a side note, the final tallies of votes for Kan and Tarutoko are likely not make any sense in terms of group voting. Neither Ozawa nor the party has an interest in giving a clear sense of how many legislators take their orders from him. Ozawa may indeed ask half of the 150 members of his group to vote for Kan and half to vote for Tarutoko, just to start generating a "Ozawa has lost his grip" story line in press reports.
There is likely some truth in all of these assertions and many more. The press has a story to tell -- "the Democratic Party is riven with factional infighting, with pro-Ozawa and anti-Ozawa forces at each others' throats" -- so members of the DPJ leadership have probably shrugged their shoulders and decided to go along it.
Nevertheless, the simplest analysis is probably the most likely to be true.
1) Everyone is agreement that Kan Naoto was, is and will be the relief pitcher for Hatoyama.
2) For the party to have a real leadership fight just before the election would be deeply damaging to the party's chances of capitalizing on the departures of Hatoyama and Ozawa. So the party needs to put on the semblance of a leadership fight, with only the vaguest outlines of a contest going on (a campaign period of just one day; no participation by the prefectural party chapters...).
3) No one wants to upset the delicate balance of forces within the party. However, for appearance's sake, somebody has to run against Kan. Tarutoko Shinji, a politician no one had ever heard of, has been drafted to provide the alternative. After Kan wins, the party has a new leader and Tarutoko can add "finished in second place in the voting for party leader on June 4, 2010" to his resume.
As a side note, the final tallies of votes for Kan and Tarutoko are likely not make any sense in terms of group voting. Neither Ozawa nor the party has an interest in giving a clear sense of how many legislators take their orders from him. Ozawa may indeed ask half of the 150 members of his group to vote for Kan and half to vote for Tarutoko, just to start generating a "Ozawa has lost his grip" story line in press reports.
A Very Few Final Words on the Hatoyama Premiership
A pair of quotes I collected in May that I thought appropriate as introductions for a post about Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio's climbdown from his promise to move the elements of the U.S. Marines Corps at MCAS Futenma to a location outside of Okinawa. With the Hatoyama Era coming to a close today, I might as well dump the quotes out of the box:
That's all for the next few hours...
----------------------------------------------------------
* Ozawa Ichiro, Ozawizumu: kokozashi o mote, Nihonjin (Ozawaism: Have an Aim, People of Japan). Tokyo: Shueisha. 2006. p. 158. Author's translation.
** Raj Krishna, "India and the Bomb," India Quarterly, 21, no. 2 (April- June, 1965).
Reference from Michael Krepon, "Exceptional India" at Arms Control Wonk (April 20, 2010) [http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2704/exceptional-india]
In foreign policy, to be called "Liar!" is the most disgraceful thing of all.- Ozawa Ichiro *
Virtue is respected only when it is backed by power; power without virtue is disastrous; but virtue without power is helpless.- Raj Krishna **
That's all for the next few hours...
----------------------------------------------------------
* Ozawa Ichiro, Ozawizumu: kokozashi o mote, Nihonjin (Ozawaism: Have an Aim, People of Japan). Tokyo: Shueisha. 2006. p. 158. Author's translation.
** Raj Krishna, "India and the Bomb," India Quarterly, 21, no. 2 (April- June, 1965).
Reference from Michael Krepon, "Exceptional India" at Arms Control Wonk (April 20, 2010) [http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2704/exceptional-india]
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Tell Me I Am Dreaming
Here is the main schedule for the time remaining before the House of Councillors elections, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun:
June 4
- Joint meeting of the Democratic Party of Japan members of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors to elect a new party leader
- Special plenary sessions of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors to elect a new prime minister (in case of different persons winning in each House, the decision of the House of Representatives takes precedence)
- New prime minister unveils his/her Cabinet
[Yes, you read it right. All three in one day.]
June 7
Prime Minister's Policy Address to the Diet
June 12
Prime Minister pays official visit to the Shanghai World's Fair (tentative)
June 16
End of Regular Diet Session
June 24
Opening of the official campaign period for the House of Councillors elections (projected)
June 25-27
Prime visits Canada and attends the G8 Summit
July 11
House of Councillors Elections
I have to admit: if one set out with the intention to draw all attention away from the campaign efforts of opposition parties, one could hardly devise a more tightly packed and distracting schedule.
I also see do not see how either the revisions to postal reform bill or the revisions of the laws governing the dispatch of contract labor will make it out of the House of Councillors by the currently projected June 16 deadline.
June 4
- Joint meeting of the Democratic Party of Japan members of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors to elect a new party leader
- Special plenary sessions of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors to elect a new prime minister (in case of different persons winning in each House, the decision of the House of Representatives takes precedence)
- New prime minister unveils his/her Cabinet
[Yes, you read it right. All three in one day.]
June 7
Prime Minister's Policy Address to the Diet
June 12
Prime Minister pays official visit to the Shanghai World's Fair (tentative)
June 16
End of Regular Diet Session
June 24
Opening of the official campaign period for the House of Councillors elections (projected)
June 25-27
Prime visits Canada and attends the G8 Summit
July 11
House of Councillors Elections
I have to admit: if one set out with the intention to draw all attention away from the campaign efforts of opposition parties, one could hardly devise a more tightly packed and distracting schedule.
I also see do not see how either the revisions to postal reform bill or the revisions of the laws governing the dispatch of contract labor will make it out of the House of Councillors by the currently projected June 16 deadline.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Kan Declares, Others Mull Their Chances
Finance Minister Kan Naoto has said that he wants to run for the post of leader of the Democratic Party of Japan and thus become prime minister. State Minister for Administrative Reform Edano Yukio has said he does not. Minister for Land, Transport, Infrastructure and Tourism Maehara Seiji is not sure.
Various groups (don't you dare call them factions) of the DPJ are holding evening meetings, weighing the options of putting up a candidate or declaring support for another group's likely candidate.
What do the citizens think? Though they have no vote in the DPJ's leadership election, the party membership has be thinking about which candidate is most likely to win the public's trust and fire the public's imagination. Who is it that the voters think is most appropriate to replace Hatoyama Yukio as PM? Who has momentum?
Though it is a very crude measure, the Kyodo News poll of Monday, May 31 gives some hint of the persons the public perceives as prime minister material. DPJ members are in bold; the number in parentheses is number from previous poll conducted over April 28-29.
Q: Who amongst politicians do you think is the best suited to be prime minister?
Mazuzoe Yoichi 15.7% (18.3%)
Kan Naoto 9.3% (5.6%)
Ishiba Shigeru 8.9% (6.2%)
Maehara Seiji 8.3% (10.6%)
Watanabe Yoshimi 7.8% (6.7%)
Okada Katsuya 6.5% (5.3%)
Hatoyama Yukio 3.5% (6.0%)
Ozawa Ichiro 2.7% (1.9%)
Edano Yukio 2.5% (1.1.%)
Tanigaki Sadakazu 2.0% (3.0%)
Hamaguchi Kazuhiro 2.0% (1.3%)
Yosano Kaoru 1.5% (0.9%)
Hiranuma Takeo 1.3% (1.3%)
Sengoku Yoshito 0.8% (0.7%)
Of course, the big favorite with the public was "Don't Know/Can't Say" -- with 23.9% (29.5%).
Various groups (don't you dare call them factions) of the DPJ are holding evening meetings, weighing the options of putting up a candidate or declaring support for another group's likely candidate.
What do the citizens think? Though they have no vote in the DPJ's leadership election, the party membership has be thinking about which candidate is most likely to win the public's trust and fire the public's imagination. Who is it that the voters think is most appropriate to replace Hatoyama Yukio as PM? Who has momentum?
Though it is a very crude measure, the Kyodo News poll of Monday, May 31 gives some hint of the persons the public perceives as prime minister material. DPJ members are in bold; the number in parentheses is number from previous poll conducted over April 28-29.
Q: Who amongst politicians do you think is the best suited to be prime minister?
Mazuzoe Yoichi 15.7% (18.3%)
Kan Naoto 9.3% (5.6%)
Ishiba Shigeru 8.9% (6.2%)
Maehara Seiji 8.3% (10.6%)
Watanabe Yoshimi 7.8% (6.7%)
Okada Katsuya 6.5% (5.3%)
Hatoyama Yukio 3.5% (6.0%)
Ozawa Ichiro 2.7% (1.9%)
Edano Yukio 2.5% (1.1.%)
Tanigaki Sadakazu 2.0% (3.0%)
Hamaguchi Kazuhiro 2.0% (1.3%)
Yosano Kaoru 1.5% (0.9%)
Hiranuma Takeo 1.3% (1.3%)
Sengoku Yoshito 0.8% (0.7%)
Of course, the big favorite with the public was "Don't Know/Can't Say" -- with 23.9% (29.5%).
A Clean Sweep for Hatoyama
Here is an interesting development: in order to promote a consistent electoral message of the Democratic Party of Japan as the party of clean politics -- a reputation the party had enjoyed until last year-- DPJ Party Leader and Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio has demanded the resignation of House of Representatives member Kobayashi Chiyomi. Kobayashi has been in danger of losing her seat ever since her former campaign accountant was arrested for campaign finance violations. She had not been forced to resign her seat before now because forcing her to step down whilst leaving Hatoyama and DPJ Secretary-General in their posts would have looked sexist. With Hatoyama resigning today as PM and Party Leader, and Ozawa apparently accepting a Hatoyama request that he (Ozawa) resign as Secretary-General due to the drag that investigations into Ozawa's fundraising organization have had on the DPJ's support numbers, Kobayashi's number has seemingly, finally, come up.
Fascinating...at the moment he stands upon the verge of his losing control of the party he founded and spent his family's fortune in building, Hatoyama is finally free to order the changes needed to restore its former good name.
Photo of Kobayashi Chiyomi courtesy the official DPJ website.
Hatoyama and Ozawa Are Leaving The Stage
A pair of random questions and fragmentary answers.
Why is Kan Naoto the prohibitive favorite to replace Hatoyama?
Kan is the only senior member of the Democratic Party of Japan seen as being on a par with Ozawa Ichiro and Hatoyama Yukio. Kan and Hatoyama founded the party in 1996 and ran it for a time as co-leaders. He succeeded Hatoyama as sole party leader in 2002, serving in the post until May 2004. Following the inception of the wreckage of Ozawa Ichiro's Liberal Party in 2003, Kan, Hatoyama and Ozawa were seen as the "troika" running the party jointly. After stepping down from the position of party leader due to a very minor issue, a gap of a few months in his record of contributing to the national pension scheme, Kan has kept a much lower profile than his fellow troika members.
His recent relative detachment from the grubbier corners of the world of politics is all to his advantage now as the party and the country search for political smarts and party authority unblemished by a strong association with either the helpless Hatoyama and the fearsome Ozawa.
Will Hatoyama's and Ozawa's resignations help the DPJ in the House of Councillors election?
A definite yes. From the responses given to pollsters, it is clear that the populace is disappointed by Hatoyama and mistrusful of Ozawa. Disappointment in the Cabinet and the party since the inauguration of the Hatoyama government should have resulted in great slices of the citizenry rushing back to familiar embraces of the Liberal Democratic Party. However the opinion polls show the sections populace as either tentatively supporting the completely unknown default reformist Your Party or opting out of supporting any particular party at all.
With the problematic Hatoyama and Ozawa no longer in charge of the government and the DPJ, the 50% of voters who consider themselvers to be non-aligned should return to their voting stance of 2009: willing to entrust the reins of government to a new, non-LDP political force.
Why is Kan Naoto the prohibitive favorite to replace Hatoyama?
Kan is the only senior member of the Democratic Party of Japan seen as being on a par with Ozawa Ichiro and Hatoyama Yukio. Kan and Hatoyama founded the party in 1996 and ran it for a time as co-leaders. He succeeded Hatoyama as sole party leader in 2002, serving in the post until May 2004. Following the inception of the wreckage of Ozawa Ichiro's Liberal Party in 2003, Kan, Hatoyama and Ozawa were seen as the "troika" running the party jointly. After stepping down from the position of party leader due to a very minor issue, a gap of a few months in his record of contributing to the national pension scheme, Kan has kept a much lower profile than his fellow troika members.
His recent relative detachment from the grubbier corners of the world of politics is all to his advantage now as the party and the country search for political smarts and party authority unblemished by a strong association with either the helpless Hatoyama and the fearsome Ozawa.
Will Hatoyama's and Ozawa's resignations help the DPJ in the House of Councillors election?
A definite yes. From the responses given to pollsters, it is clear that the populace is disappointed by Hatoyama and mistrusful of Ozawa. Disappointment in the Cabinet and the party since the inauguration of the Hatoyama government should have resulted in great slices of the citizenry rushing back to familiar embraces of the Liberal Democratic Party. However the opinion polls show the sections populace as either tentatively supporting the completely unknown default reformist Your Party or opting out of supporting any particular party at all.
With the problematic Hatoyama and Ozawa no longer in charge of the government and the DPJ, the 50% of voters who consider themselvers to be non-aligned should return to their voting stance of 2009: willing to entrust the reins of government to a new, non-LDP political force.
Hatoyama Resignation Announcement
Jiji Press is reporting that Hatoyama Yukio will be announcing his intent to resign as prime minister at a special emergency meeting of Democratic Party of Japan this morning.
Congratulations U.S. government, you have just concluded an agreement with someone who will not even be around long enough to get a copy of the agreement text via the post.
Good luck on trying to hold the new guy or gal to the agreement, considering how its acceptance seems to have impacted Hatoyama's political viability.
Congratulations also to the international financial community. With the time and energy to be expended electing a new DPJ president, the selection of a new party leadership group and Cabinet and the unsettled mood in the Diet, the chances of the revised postal reform bill passing the House of Councillors before the end of the current Diet session is just about zero.
Reuters report on resignation announcement.
AP report on the announcement.
Later - The Yomiuri Shimbun is claiming that Ozawa Ichiro will also resign as DPJ Secretary-General. I say "is claiming" rather than "reports" because as far as Ozawa goes, the Yomiuri is not an unbiased source.
Congratulations U.S. government, you have just concluded an agreement with someone who will not even be around long enough to get a copy of the agreement text via the post.
Good luck on trying to hold the new guy or gal to the agreement, considering how its acceptance seems to have impacted Hatoyama's political viability.
Congratulations also to the international financial community. With the time and energy to be expended electing a new DPJ president, the selection of a new party leadership group and Cabinet and the unsettled mood in the Diet, the chances of the revised postal reform bill passing the House of Councillors before the end of the current Diet session is just about zero.
Reuters report on resignation announcement.
AP report on the announcement.
Later - The Yomiuri Shimbun is claiming that Ozawa Ichiro will also resign as DPJ Secretary-General. I say "is claiming" rather than "reports" because as far as Ozawa goes, the Yomiuri is not an unbiased source.
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
And by Next Week, Prime Minister Kan?
Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned, Nor hell a fury like a woman scorned.Memo to me: avoid making definitive pronouncements.- William Congreve
I said yesterday that not enough time remained before the end of the current Diet session and the probable date of the House of Councillors election for the DPJ to replace deeply unpopular Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio.
My having made this statement seems to not be impeding in any way political maneuvering that very well might lead to such an outcome.
The avalanche began in a question to Democratic Socialist Party leader Fukushima Mizuho, who until last Friday was State Minister for Consumer Affairs and Declining Birthrate. When asked whether or not members of her party, who voted to leave the ruling coalition on Sunday, would join members of the opposition in a vote of a no-confidence against Prime Minister Hatoyama, Fukushima said it would be "rather difficult" (nakanaka muzukashii) for her party to not support the resolution.
That "rather difficult" set everyone's pulses to racing. Not about a no-confidence resolution in the House of Representatives, which would compel the Prime Minister to resign or call a general election. In that chamber the prime minister's Democratic Party of Japan holds a ponderous majority of 308 seats out of 480.
No, the exciting possibility is a censure measure in the House of Councillors, where ruling coalition's majority is wafer-thin. While the passage of a censure measure would not force the prime minister from office, it would be a stinging official rebuke to the PM, one he can ill afford given that his fumbling has cost his party dearly in terms of public support on the eve of a crucial election. Should the House of Councillors vote to censure the PM, the humiliation could be enough to force him to resign of his own volition.
The numbers on the vote work out like this. Following the withdrawal of the SDP from the ruling coalition, the DPJ-Shinryokufukai/People's New Party/Japan New Party caucus controls 122 seats, one seat above 50% line in the 242 seat House of Councillors. In fact, as Adamu has recently pointed out, the caucus enjoys a two-vote cushion, thank to Wakabayashi Masatoshi's having had to resign from the chamber in shame following an extraordinary case of wandering fingers. So if all the member of the caucus show up, their numbers can easily defeat any censure motion.
That caveat however -- if the members of the caucus show up -- turns out to be significant. Of late, it has been the non-ruling coalition members of the House of Councillors who have been absenting themselves from plenary sessions. They feel that since their votes cannot stop the majority from prevailing in the House, their time would be better spent out campaigning for the upcoming election. If the opposition offers a censure motion, however, one can be fairly sure that the party whips will get on the phone (or send an email) to their wandering charges to get back to the chamber for the vote.
If all the members of the opposition are in the House, the focus then shifts to the ruling coalition's membership. If even only a handful of them fail to show up for the vote -- or even, in a fit of manic rage, a handful vote for the censure motion -- the motion will pass.
How likely is it that members of the ruling coalition will not show up to block a censure motion or show up to turn tables on the PM? That depends on how serious you believe the "Class of 2004 Problem" to be.
The DPJ has 35 district seat holders and 18 proportional seat holders facing reelection this year. These incumbent seat holders were elected in 2004, when Okada Katsuya was DPJ party president. Some of these seatholders have close ties to the current problematic party leadership duo of Prime Minister Hatoyama and Secretary-General Ozawa Ichiro. Most, however, do not. Indeed, the Class of 2004 in the House of Councillors are the DPJ members who owe the least allegiance to Hatoyama and Ozawa. That the fundraising scandals, fiscally irresponsible policies and infuriating leadership styles of both men have put these members of the House of Councillors in a precarious electoral position (not to mention Ozawa's cramming a second DPJ candidate into some multi-seat districts, meaning that the incumbent would be running not just against opponents from other parties but one from his/her own party) would seem to be reason enough for them to suddenly have an errand to run when the opposition brings its censure motion up for a vote.
A situation that seems indeed nakanaka muzukashii for the PM and his political fixit man Ozawa.
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