What To Call The New Order

I was asked a few months back what we should be calling the Japanese political order in the aftermath of the July House of Councillors election, whether it is indeed the return of the "1.5 Party System" of old. The phrase "1.5 Party System" is a demeaning* and easily apprehended international version of what was domestically called "the 1955 System," after the year the two factions of the Socialists on the left and the Liberal Party and the Japan Democratic Party on the right merged to form two large left/right divide parties, with the right dominant due to the left's division into Socialist and Communist camps. I responded that a better term for the current situation would be a 1.0 Party System. Under the 1955 system, the Socialists could tie up Diet business in a serious way and had to be paid off to an extent the term "1.5 Party System" leaves unclear. "1.5 Party System" indeed undersells the political threat that the Socialists posed (which the LDP neutralized in a whole host of shoddy ways, including absurd levels of disproportion in between rural and urban voting districts). However, the "0.5" in the "1.5" does give the Socialists at least some heft -- which they had.

After last year's House of Representatives election and the July election the rump opposition parties in the Diet are little more than confused noise machines without any power to foment change. Hence my suggestion of a "1.0 System" moniker.

The image of an utterly powerless opposition (the 0 in the 1.0 expression) is obviously an exaggeration. The general concept is not, however, entirely without merit. Leadership of Japan's small but dogged anti-nuclear power and anti-secrecy bill forces, the current most prominent movements challenging the government's attempts to sweep problems under the rug and move on, comes almost entirely from outside the Diet.

I have been and will continue using the 1.0 System expression, having possibly coined it. However, one sees in the news media the indigenous expression ikkyo tajaku (一強多弱 - "one strong, many weak"), an expansion of the standard expression ikkyo meaning "dominant." I have seen the four character compound used on NHK and I think TBS network broadcasts. Here is a letter to editor of The Asahi Shimbun that uses the phrase, though the first character is replaced by the Arabic numeral 1.

When written in kanji the expression ikkyo tajaku is both visually arresting and easily understood. However, what is/would be the elegant and succint English translation?

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* Speaking of demeaning, why did the author insert a denigration of Japanese tech praxis in this article on South Korean reverse engineering of U.S. military technology?

Laboring To Retrieve Some Semblance of Relevance

When Yamaoka Kenji dropped off the 40 resignation letters from Democratic Party of Japan members of the House of Representatives at the DPJ secretary-general's office on Monday, the curiously round number of 40 raised some eyebrows. Suspicions were reinforced by the odd coincidence that 40 was precisely the number of likely defectors being batted around in press reporting immediately prior to the delivery of the letters.

No matter how good their reporters are, no paper or television station ever gets the numbers spot on. Close, sure. But on the money? A damn rare occurrence.

It was not outside the realm of conjecture that former DPJ leader Ozawa Ichiro and Yamaoka had asked some of those who wanted to quit the DPJ to remain behind, to become sleepers, poised to resign from the DPJ in dramatic style when the new Ozawa-led breakaway party came into being.

However, so botched was the Monday breakout, with 3 of the 40 asking to have their resignations rescinded and a fourth becoming an independent, that a drastic change the narrative was in order. The story was becoming one of laughable oafishness and presumption rather than menace.

So it seems that Ozawa chose to burn one of his presumed sleepers.

Kato Gaku (Nagano District #5, freshman) was one of the 17 DPJ members of the House who had voted against the bill raising the consumption tax to 10% by 2015 but who elected to stay on the in the party. On Tuesday the DPJ executive tagged Kato with a two-month suspension of his party privileges.

Somehow Kato found this punishment, which would see him reinstated with full rights in time for the DPJ's leadership election in September, too onerous to bear. Exile and potential electoral oblivion seems to have been preferable.

Kato's attempts to create the impression that he had come to his decision on his own were almost sad. After meeting with Acting President Tarutoko Shinji, Kato explained his resignation as being a result of the likelihood there will be a House of Representatives election within the next two months and he wanted to prevent the increase in the consumption tax (J) -- two thoughts that whether considered together or in isolation, make not a bit of sense.

After Kato's meeting with DPJ secretary-general Koshi'ishi Azuma, he told waiting reporters, "I have come to this decision by myself." Such a claim is, of course, ludicrous. Whenever an adult male Homo sapiens tells you he came to a decision by himself, it is precisely because he did not.

Meanwhile the other 18 members of the DPJ under suspension -- the 17 others who had earned two month suspension plus Hatoyama Yukio, whose "no" vote on the consumption tax legislation was deemed so heinous, coming as it did from a founder of the party, that he was slapped with a six month suspension -- met with 3 of the House of Councillors members who had had their resignation tendered to the secretary-general on Monday in a study group meeting on of the passage of the consumption tax bill through the House of Councillors. Hatoyama, the parrot that he is, borrowed Ozawa Ichiro's catchphrase of "putting the livelihood of the people first" (kokumin no seikatsu ga daichi - a phrase Ozawa allies today registered as the names of the new caucuses for the DPJ rebels in the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors) as the reason he will continue to struggle with the DPJ leadership, even after receiving the party's most severe form of punishment short of expulsion. Hatoyama also parroted the blunt warning of Ozawa Sakihito (no relation (to Ozawa Ichiro) that if the all the members of the opposition, Party Kizuna, the yet-to-be-formed Ozawa party and the DPJ members under suspension were to vote together, a no-confidence motion again the Cabinet would pass. (J)

Theoretically, true. Practically, impossible.

The LDP and the New Komeito crave power; the Your Party hates the Noda government's contractionary economic policies and the deference it pays to the bureaucracy; and the Socialists hate the tax rise and the government's policies on the restarts of Japan's idled nuclear reactors.

But to think that all the members of these parties, plus the Sunrise Party, the other microparties, the independents plus the Communists will all join hands with Ozawa Ichiro and Hatoyama Yukio to topple the Noda government is wishful thinking at its most wishful.

As for Hatoyama's and Ozawa Sakihito thuggish, numerically implausible threats, they have flushed down the toilet any chance of the mainstream DPJ leadership ever allowing either man any responsibility greater than crossing guard or perhaps garbage collector.

How many Kato Gakus still sleep among the ranks of the DPJ? My guess is four, perhaps five more. It is possible, however, that my confidence in Noda Yoshihiko's mastery of the numbers blinds me to the likelihood of a much larger and damaging number of potential defectors remaining.

As for Ozawa Sakihito, he clearly seems to have missed the elementary school lesson that when someone treats you with leniency, you show remorse and, for a decent interval, remain silent.


Later - This text has been edited for clarity.

That's All Folks! (Fukushima Mizuho Edition)

NHK has just announced that Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio has relieved (himen) Minister for Consumer Affairs and Declinining Birthrate Fukushima Mizuho of her ministerial postings.

Hatoyama spent all day trying to convince the Social Democratic Party's leader to reverse her stance on the government's plan to move elements of the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to Henoko. To every entreaty Fukushima replied that if the government's proposal named Henoko or any other place inside Okinawa Prefecture as the destination of the forces currently at Futenma, she would refuse to sign the document. Furthermore, if asked to resign, she would refuse to do so.

Faced with the prospect of the plan's not winning the status of a Cabinet Decision -- and having issued a joint statement with the United States on the outlines of the plan on a few hours earlier, the prime minister was left with no other choice but sacking his stubborn minister and coalition party leader.

The Cabinet will now meet sans Fukushima to approve the plan.

Having had to rely on forceful methods to pass a significantly unpopular plan, the prime minister's problems are only just beginning. He has a plan which his remaining non-DPJ minister, People's New Party leader Kamei Shizuka, has repeatedly stated is unrealizable. He has retreated from every position he has taken over the last nine months, driving the people of Okinawa to the edge of fury and the rest of the country over the edge of exasperation.

The contrast between himself, the constant and in the end unfulfilled waverer, and Minister Fukushima, who stuck by her guns all the way to the bitter end, could not be more stark.

Sic transit gloria mundi...

A Socialist Party Alternative to the Henoko Site?

Futenma MCAS, with the Ginowan City surrounding it

One of the enduring minor myths associated with the current coalition government's attempt to revisit the 2006 base shifting agreement with the United States is that one of the microparties in the coalition, the Democratic Socialist Party of Japan (hereafter, the Socialist Party) wants the Marines and their equipment moved entirely out of Japan.

The origins of this myth are hard to trace. Socialist Party Leader Fukushima Mizuho is not known to have ever made this demand. No such demand exists in the DSP’s manifesto. Indeed, the demands made in the supposedly radical Socialist Party manifesto are more tough-minded nationalist than wild-eyed pacifist. It is also fairly accommodating, seeing a need for negotiation rather than confrontation.

米国に在日米軍再編についての再協議を求め、沖縄などの米軍基地の縮小・撤去をすすめます。普天間基地の閉鎖・返還を求め、辺野古への新基地建設など、基地機能の強化に反対します。「グアム移転協定」の廃棄を要求します.

“We seek a renegotiation with the United States of the agreement regarding the relocation and realignment of U.S. Forces. We will suggest the reduction and elimination of U.S. bases on Okinawa and elsewhere. We seek a closure of the Futenma MCAS and the return of its land to Japan. We oppose an increase of the functional capabilities of the bases, including the construction of new base facilities at Henoko. We will demand a scrapping of the “Agreement to Move U.S. Forces to Guam.”

Tough demands…but not entirely unreasonable ones and certainly there is no demand that the Marines leave Japan. There is not even a demand that the Marines leave Okinawa.

The Socialist Party does, however, want the unit currently stationed at Futenma MCAS out of Okinawa. To that end Socialist Party members of the Diet Teruya Kantoku (Okinawa #2 District, House of Representatives) and Yamanouchi Tokushin (House of Councillors proportional list seat, a registered resident of Ginowan City) yesterday visited the Ariake Saga Airport in Saga Prefecture, a potential alternative site for the aircraft of the Marine Corps unit currently stationed at Futenma.


After visiting the airport, Teruya declared that Ariake Saga, with no homes in the area and plenty of open space around it, represents the “best location” (he switched to the English phrase to say this) for a base. Careful politician that he is, he immediately qualified his remarks by saying that he was in no way declaring that Ariake Saga should be the site of a new base – that would be a subject for another time.


As can be seen from the above photograph from Google Maps (click on the image to enlarge it) the Ariake Saga Airport has nothing in its immediate vicinity except the sea and many hectares of reclaimed agricultural land. The nearest habitation seems to be about 4 kilometers from the terminal. The current runway is 2000 meters long, long enough for landings and takeoffs for C-130 or a C-17 heavy lift fixed wing aircraft but too short to accommodate an Antonov 124-210 heavy lifter, which only just was able to takeoff from at Futenma, where the runway is 2740 meters in length. However from the aerial view there is no obvious reason why the runway cannot be extended another 1000 meters or more. In addition, since the area around Saga Ariake Airport is reclaimed land one can expect that there will be few of the difficulties with land acquisition, should expansion of the facilities be necessary. In almost every other case, the existence of traditional landholdings would stymie attempts to acquire land for expansion.

On the minus side, and it is a big minus. Saga Ariake Airport is all the way on the other side of the peninsula from the Sasebo Naval Base, where the ships of the III Marine Expeditionary Force are berthed. It looks to be at least 50 kilometers as the crow flies over rugged terrain – a potential deal breaker, as the sea route to a rendezvous follows a ridiculous roundabout

Teruya intends to do a document exchange with officials of the Ministry of Defense to submit materials on the possibility of converting Saga Ariake to U.S. military use. One should hope the bureaucrats of the MOD treat the MPs with greater courtesy than Saga Governor Furukawa Yasushi, who refused to meet with the Socialist MPs on the grounds that their request for a visit was not an official government request.

Fear of A Sinitic Planet or Something

Shorter version of today's Washington Post editorial:

If the U.S. government does not ease up on insisting that the perfidious Hatoyama Yukio deliver on the 2006 Futenma-to-Henoko agreement, Hatoyama will split his party in two by choosing to draw Japan closer to China. So let us give Japanese democracy a chance because the current government, which will deliver a decision in May, cannot decide anything important before the House of Councillors election in July.

Times are admittedly tough in the print industry. Many in the industry are hanging by a string. But is the Washington Post abandoning checking even its own editorials for clarity and continuity?

As for the swipe at the Democratic Socialist Party, has Fukushima Mizuho or anyone under her been demanding that all U.S. troops leave Japan? There is no mention of a total withdrawal of U.S. forces from Okinawa, much less Japan as a whole, in the party manifesto. Or is it the People's New Party that is demanding total withdrawal?

One should perhaps not complain, of course. The author of this piece is at least considering the possibility that it may be unwise for the U.S. government to continue pursuing a full court press on the Government of Japan in an attempt force a commitment to the 2006 agreement.