Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Why It Is Over But For The Tears And The Resignations

An election in two graphs and a screenshot.


Turnout for House of Representatives elections, 1996 - 2014

Public opinion polls this year are finding the lowest voter interest results ever recorded.


Number of voters in district races (in millions) and number of seats

a) Yes, that's right. In between 2009 and 2012, 10 million voters, one tenth of the electorate, just gave up. Guess how many more will give up this time.

b) Yes, that's right. The LDP won 227 district races in 2012 with 1.7 million fewer votes than it received in 2009, when it won only 64 district seats.

Highlights why redrawing the district boundaries, equalizing the populations inside the districts, and turnout are such big deals doesn't it?

TABLE - from NHK evening news of 2014.12.08

Which party do you support?

LDP 38.1%
DPJ 11.7%
JIP 3.7%
Komeito 5.9%
NexGen 0.1%
Communists 4.3%
People's Life 0.3%
Socialists 0.9%
No party in particular 26.3%

In 2012, final pre-vote support percentages for the LDP and the DPJ were 26.6% and 16.6%, respectively.

With the opposition contesting in too few districts, there is nothing that can stop the LDP from stomping to victory...and with the new, higher numbers for the Komeito, the coalition looks even more fearsome.

1 comment:

jaichind said...

I hear you. This dynamic of low turnout can and will hurt DPJ. On the flip side, lets look at another election where the turnout was actually around 50%. Namely 2013 Upper House elections where turnout was around 52-53%. There the NHK poll in the same month of the election has LDP 42.5%, NKP (now KP)at 5.3%, DPJ 8% and JRP 2.7%. The result in the PR vote was LDP 34.7%, NKP 14.2%, DPJ 13.4% and JRP 11.9%. So NHK polls overstates LDP support and understates NKP DPJ JRP support.