Bad As It Ever Was 2

One of the striking features of the upcoming House of Representatives election, if and when it happens, is how many party heavyweights and back row residents will be leaving. This is not your father's Diet, where nonagenarians like Hara Kenzaburo (20 elections to the House of Representatives!) promise to die in their seats.

Going, going but not yet gone are:

Mori Yoshiro (75) - LDP; Ishikawa #2 District; Machimura (formerly Mori) Faction; former prime minister
Named successor: non-relative

Fukuda Yasuo (76) - LDP; Gunma #4 District; Machimura Faction; former prime minister
Named successor: eldest son

Nakagawa Hidenao (68) - LDP; Hiroshima #4 District; Machimura Faction; former secretary-general
Named successor: second son

Yamasaki Taku (75) - LDP; Fukuoka #2 District (not current); Yamasaki Faction; former deputy prime minister
Named successor: none

Ono Yoshinori (76) - LDP; Kagawa #3 District; Yamasaki Faction; former defense minister
Named successor: eldest son (one of 3 potential successors)

Takebe Tsutomu (71) - LDP; Hokkaido #12 District; Yamazaki Faction; former former secretary general
Named successor: eldest son (one of 3 potential successors)

The Machimura Faction, the home of the dinosaurs including present LDP president Abe Shinzo, and the Yamasaki faction, which is going nowhere, are clearing out space for the next generation of legacy candidates. The exceptions to the pattern are Mori, whose only son Yuki, an alcoholic, died at age 46 of acute pancreatitis and Yamasaki, whose three children are all daughters (why being women makes them ineligible for the campaign to regain their father's seat is for the LDP to explain).

The Liberal Democratic Party is not the only party seeing a passing down of seats. In the Democratic Party of Japan, Hata Tsutomu (77 - Nagano #3 District; former prime minister) is retiring and is presenting his eldest son Yu'ichiro (House of Councillors; Nagano Prefecture seat), the serving Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (and hands-down winner of the Kim Jong-eun Dress-Alike Contest)

Marshal Kim Jong-eun  and MLIT Minister Hata Yu'ichiro

as his successor.

Hata's wish flies in the face of the DPJ's stated policy to stamp out legacy seats, despite the presence of more than a smattering of legacy seatholders among the elders and alumni of the party.

Of course, it's pretty much all in the family. Let us look at the list of announced retirees once again:

Mori Yoshiro
Inherited support group from: father
(Father and grandfather were mayors of Neagarimachi)

Fukuda Yasuo
Inherited seat/support group from: father

Takebe Tsutomu
Did not inherit seat or support group
(Father proprietor of Chinese restaurant)

Nakagawa Hidenao
Inherited seat/support group from: father-in-law

Yamasaki Taku
Did not inherit seat or support group

Ono Yoshinori
Inherited seat/support group from: father-in-law

Hata Tsutomu
Inherited seat/support group from: father


N.B. - One of the enduring features of Japanese culture -- a opening phrase I have railed against many a time -- is the transformation of public goods, offices and spaces into heritable entities. The Fujiwaras still run Kasuga; a defrocked imperial prince still leads the Red Cross; those in charge of the inboxes of the personnel departments at the ministries have to fight to keep space open for applications from those who are not the children of bureaucrats.

Not Content Within the Confines of a Little Pond, Evidently

Damn, is she in a hurry.

Former Environment and briefly Defense Minister Koike Yuriko (literally "Little Pond Lily Girl") --whose possible candidacy for the prime ministership has been labeled a media fantasy by former Prime Minister Mori Yoshirō -- seems nevertheless to be preparing for a possible sloughing off the LDP in yet another immaculate political ecdysis*.

Koike, whose career has given "rapid shifts of party allegiance in Japanese politics" a whole new meaning, is doing an astoundingly rapid build out of the interesting meeting of April 9 where she dined with former Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichirō, Motegi Toshimitsu and others--the precursor of the projected monthly meetings being organized by former Toyota Chairman Okuda Hiroshi .

Last night, following a speech on the environment, Koike had a very interesting comment about her "buddies" (nakama) that bears translation:

私は日本新党出身なので自民党にも民主党にも仲間がおり、分かれていても日本を変えなければならないという方向性は同じ。大人の対応ができるような舞台回しの役割を果たせれば...

"Me, I'm originally from the Japan New Party. I have buddies in the LDP and the DPJ. Though we are apart, we are pointed in the same direction: we must change Japan. If we fulfill our role turning of events around (butai mawashi) in the manner of adults, like we know how to do..."

She also purportedly complimented her former colleagues as individuals who could put aside political gamesmanship (seikyoku) in favor what is good for the nation.

The Japan New Party...hmmmm...oh, the memories...an LDP-busting center-left party that snatched 35 seats in the historic July 1993 House of Representatives election, propelling its leader Hosokawa Morihiro into the prime ministership and pulling Koike out of the sleepy political parking lot that was the House of Councillors.

Anybody of that party still around, now that Hosokawa has switched his energies over to the production of ceramics?

Well, let uss ssssseeeee here.

There is Koike and

Motegi (LDP) who is the chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Health, Labour and Welfare

and, oh

Minister of the Environment Kamoshita Ichirō (LDP)
Special Advisor the Prime Minister Itō Tatsuya (LDP)
former Democratic Party Leader Maehara Seiji
Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Audit and Oversight of the Administration Edano Yukio (DPJ)
Speaker of the House of Councillors Eda Satsuki (DPJ - currently in suspension)...

Looks like a decent bunch of well-respected centrists whose loyalty to their respective party leaders is...uncertain?

Couple this with former Prime Minister Koizumi having purportedly "ants in his pants" (oshiri ga muzu muzu shite iru)--at least according to Koike (no tittering from the peanut gallery, please) about the way his successors have mishandled reform--I would not be too sure that Koizumi will be willing to help out the LDP candidate in the Yamaguchi #2 election.

[That the kind of help several in the LDP want Koizumi to extend is to become the lightning rod for anger at the start of the automatic pension deductions for elder care--at a time when the government is underpaying many seniors through having lost track of their pension accounts--is another reason I think it unlikely he will trek on down to the Iwakuni area this week.]

I would also, if I were in a position of power in the LDP right now, be very suspicious of Koizumi's advice. I would also not be taking at face value the nodding agreement of Koizumi fellow travelers Nakagawa Hidenao and Takebe Tsutomu that passing the gasoline tax bill using the override provision is a simply smashing idea.

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* The use of the word "ecdysis" in this post is dedicated to Coco Masters's use of the word "micturition" in a TIME general interest article on Japan last week.