How unlike was Abe Shinzo's victory in the Liberal Democrat Party election?
I) It had been 40 years since the LDP presidential election had gone to a runoff. It has been 56 years since the winner in the first round (here the former defense minister Ishiba Shigeru) lost in the second round.
A review of the totals from the two rounds of voting (Diet = Diet members)
Abe - 141
Ishiba - 199
Ishihara - 96
Hayashi - 27
Machimura - 34
Abe - 108
Ishiba - 89
II) In a posting to the SSJ-Forum of September 4 and in private emails Professor John Campbell of The University of Michigan invited Japan specialists the world over to predict the winners of the Democratic Party of Japan leadership contest, the LDP presidential election and the next election for prime minister of Japan.
Twenty individuals responded to the challenge.
18 of the 20 picked Noda Yoshihiko as the winner of the DPJ contest.
Nobody picked Abe as the winner of the LDP contest.