Wednesday, September 26, 2012

It's ABErrant

How unlike was Abe Shinzo's victory in the Liberal Democrat Party election?

I) It had been 40 years since the LDP presidential election had gone to a runoff. It has been 56 years since the winner in the first round (here the former defense minister Ishiba Shigeru) lost in the second round.

A review of the totals from the two rounds of voting (Diet = Diet members)

Round 1

Abe - 141
Local 87
Diet 54

Ishiba - 199
Local 165
Diet 34

Ishihara - 96
Local 38
Diet 58

Hayashi - 27
Local 3
Diet 24

Machimura - 34
Local 7
Diet 327


Round 2

Abe - 108

Ishiba - 89


II) In a posting to the SSJ-Forum of September 4 and in private emails Professor John Campbell of The University of Michigan invited Japan specialists the world over to predict the winners of the Democratic Party of Japan leadership contest, the LDP presidential election and the next election for prime minister of Japan.

Twenty individuals responded to the challenge.

18 of the 20 picked Noda Yoshihiko as the winner of the DPJ contest.

Nobody picked Abe as the winner of the LDP contest.

2 comments:

Hiko Saemon said...

I think it is easy enough to reverse-engineer. Abe clearly targeted the second round, leaving his run late and attending the study groups of competing candidates, generally being friendly and agreeable with them at the outset positioning himself as a viable second choice.

It was also almost a certainty that the election would go to a second round.

I get the feeling that people just being unable to comprehend how Abe could even have a chance stopped them seeing that.

MTC said...

Hiko Saemon -

It is not the "how" that is so mysterious. It is the "why" that puzzles. Surely the essence of politics is holding one's nose and voting for persons and bills one does not like because self-interest requires it. Even the folks with anger issues in organized crime know that one must not let the personal get in the way of business.