Today is when the starter's gun goes off in the great scamble for seats in the July 11 House of Councillors election. There is a great deal speculation in the air and a flood of analysis yet to come...but let me venture a very rough early estimate of the final results based solely on the polls, not the individual candidates.
That must wait for another rainy day.
In the meantive, my guess is:
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ): 66 seats (43 district and 23 proportional)
Liberal Democratic Party of Japan: 31 seats (21 district and 10 proportional)
New Komeito: 11 seats (4 district and 7 proportional)
Your Party (Minna no To): 8 seats (2 district and 6 proportional)
Social Democratic Party of Japan (DSP): 3 seats (1 district and 2 proportional)
Communist Party of Japan (JCP): 3 seats (3 proportional)
Sunrise Party (Tachiagare Nippon): 1 seat (1 proportional)
All other parties: 0 seats
Over the next few weeks I will offer refinements and backup information on the individual races. An overwhelming victory will give Prime Minister Kan Naoto and his Cabinet the authority they will need to remake Japan according to both standard DPJ priniciples and the current, rapidly changing geo-political and geo-economic order. With comfortable majorities in both Houses of the Diet, the Diet will pass any legislation leaderhip may cook up -- and it has plenty of projects in the sketchy stage.
At which point, the revolution will most certainly be on.
Aquino’s reformism hits a dead end
3 hours ago