Sometimes There Is No There There

I walk this empty street
On the Boulevard of Broken Dreams
Where the city sleeps
And I'm the only one and I walk alone...

My shadow's the only one that walks beside me
My shallow heart's the only thing that's beating
Sometimes I wish someone out there will find me
'Til then I walk alone

- Billie Joe Armstrong, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" (2004)

Today is the fourth anniversary of the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear reactor meltdown in Japan's northeast. The television news broadcasts will be full to the brim with reports on commemorations and the current situation of the residents of Eastern Tohoku.

One reality the reports will not be able to avoid is the modest amount of rebuilding and resettlement completed. Few buildings have be restored in the devastated areas; even fewer businesses have been established. Over 200,000 persons remain displaced, scattered all over Japan or still huddling in tiny, cold temporary housing units.

The delay in or lack of revival (fukko) of the Tohoku despite the cubic kilometers of hot political aired spewed over it is not indicative of a lack of resolve or resources. The minor communities of the Tohoku seaboard were political clients and mendicants, surviving into the contemporary era not due to their ability to generate livelihoods for their inhabitants but due to their ability to attract subsidies and development funds from the nation's core areas. They were, for the most part, places that were not habitable save under severe government intervention.

Which means that Daniel Aldrich may have to provide a modification -- and not a very big one -- to his illuminating thesis on recovery from disaster. High levels of social capital in a community and social exchange in between local residents do seem to be of vital importance in speeding up recovery from disaster. However, for reconstruction to take place, the affected communities have to have had real socio-economic value for the nation in the first place.

Which the seaside communities of the Tohoku have not had for decades...and under any and all reasonable scenarios never will.

So if today you see or read a report condemning the lack of reconstruction as a sign of political failure, feel free to say, "No, the failure to reconstruct is not the political failure. The political failure was the continued existence of these towns and villages."

As a coda, if a public official or former public official comes on lamenting about the communities lost to the rain of radiation from the explosions of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, you can say, "Phooey! The reason why the nuclear power stations were even there" -- this is from another one of Aldrich's books - "was because those municipalities were NOT communities! Communities would have banded together and rejected the plants!"


Later - Please, please, please read the comments where I am excoriated for the above.

Original image courtesy: Mainichi Shimbun

Hirano Pulls The Ripcord

The announcement yesterday of the departure of former State Minister for Reconstruction Hirano Tatsuo from the Democratic Party of Japan was the top story of last night's evening news. The departure was not a surprise: Hirano had been discussing leaving the party for quite some time(Link). It just took him until yesterday to sit down in front of the cameras and spit out his intentions.

A former minister and leading light of the mid-career cohort (Link) is forced to abandon the DPJ four months before he faces reelection: the DPJ is coming apart at the seams – there is a narrative combo no political writer will be punished for reporting.

It is unclear, however, just how Hirano has improved his position by declaring himself an independent. He has, of course, his own base of support within Iwate Prefecture. However, at his press conference he expressed the hope that supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party will also vote for him (Link – J video). Given that the LDP has already got a candidate lined up for the Iwate seat (Link - J), Hirano's hope seems a rather vain one.

Hirano also cannot expect much help from his former mentor, the "king" of Iwate the LDP so very much wants to topple, Ozawa Ichiro – not that Hirano is seeking any connection with the man who set him up in national office. When asked about his former protégé's plan to leave the DPJ, Ozawa, who believes he still has cards to play with the DPJ, stuck in the knife and twisted:

"Since [Hirano] was a DPJ government minister until the end of last year, how likely are the citizens to accept this? Won't [Hirano's decision] be kind of hard for the voters to understand?"

(Link – J)

Ozawa has a gigantic blindspot as to his own unpopularity outside of Iwate. As to his read of the political climate inside his home prefecture, his views are hard to disrespect.

As for Hirano's own justifications of his decision, they sounded...confused. Whilst making a pitch for LDP support, he did not disavow a commitment to toppling the LDP from power. When asked how being an independent was better than being a member of the DPJ, Hirano argued that as an independent he could better push forward the post-tsunaumi reconstruction effort in his home prefecture – a rather interesting theory on the amount of leverage independents have in the Diet.

To the cynical listener (and one should not underestimate the cynicism of the voters), Hirano's reason for running for reelection as an independent boiled down to "I Deserve More."

We will have to see how the good people of Iwate respond to this assertion.