The U.S. Establishment Wishes It Had A Vote Here

Democratic Party of Japan senior advisor Watanabe Kozo is one of the grand old men of Japanese politics. He is one of the three surviving members of the famous Seven Magistrates (shichinin no bugyo) of the Liberal Democratic Party, the seven middle-ranking members of the Takeshita Faction identified as likely future prime ministers (the other two surviving members of the group are Ozawa Ichiro and Hata Tsutomu. An oddity: only those who left the LDP are alive today).

However, the weight of years (79 of them) and ill health are forcing Watanabe K. to consider retirement at the end of the current Diet's term.

Herein lies a problem. The support group (koenkai) of Watanabe K. wants his first born son, Watanabe Tsuneo (no, obviously not that Watanabe Tsuneo) to succeed his father. DPJ rules, as laid down by the party manifesto of 2009, forbid the handing down of seats to family members. It is a rather ridiculous rule, as it was laid down by Ozawa Ichiro and Hatoyama Yukio, both of whom are hereditary seat holders (ah, the sweet scent of the double standard).

[Ed. Re: Hatoyama, see comment #5 below]

So Watanabe T. cannot receive the support of the local DPJ chapter should he wish to run. Of course, if the DPJ local chapter chooses someone else to run for Watanabe's seat, that person is unlikely to defeat an LDP opponent without the full support of the Watanabe K. koenkai.

Yesterday Watanabe K. suggested a novel solution (Watanabe K. is notorious for mumbling out contrarian and cranky suggestions, making him every journalist's best friend). If DPJ rules prevent his son from inheriting his seat and his koenkai remains adamant that it will support no one else, then Watanabe the Younger can run as a candidate on the Your Party ticket. (J)

Cue sound of DPJ senior cadres rolling their eyes and biting their lips.

Of course, Watanabe the Younger may not even want the job. A political scientist who spent a decade at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, he has what seems to be a comfortable position as the Director of Policy Research at The Tokyo Foundation. The thought of the soft-spoken Watanabe T. atop some sound truck giving campaign speeches to knots of elderly strangers or empty parking lots simply boggles the imagination.

Of course, one influential group would be thrilled to tears if Watanabe T. were to run for and win a Diet seat: the U.S. Japan policy establishment. "Nabe," as he is commonly known in Washington circles, would be considered a trustworthy DPJ shepherd of the Japan-U.S. alliance, a role that has been monopolized until now by Special Advisor to the Prime Minister Nagashima Akihisa or "Aki," as he is commonly known.*

The Washington policy establishment has no say in this intra-party kerfuffle **, of course. However, wise persons in the U.S. Japan policy community might want to email Watanabe the Younger and ask him, "Nabe, do you really want to run for a Diet seat?"

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* It seems that anything more than two syllables taxes the Washington imagination.

** Watanabe Kozo is not the only problematic party elder. Fellow senior advisor and former Magistrate Hata wants his son to inherit his House of Representatives seat.

The Spearpoint Of Stupid

Oh, please. Tell me that Nagashima Akihisa, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, did not say what he is reported as having said on Tuesday.

Arrghhhh. It is in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. The quote must be accurate.

Here is what he supposedly said, in regards to the strategic importance of the Trans Pacific Partnership:

「日本が中国から見てなかなか手ごわいと思わせるような戦略的環境を整えていくことだ」

"Japan would be, seen from the point of view of China, arranging a strategic environment that [they] will see [us] as formidable." (ja).

Oh holy crap.

As Corey Wallace has reported, any hint that the TPP is an anti-China front will send the Australians and the Kiwis packing (en). Well, this is not a hint: this a damn declaration.

A few weeks ago I was asked whether or not Nagashima, or "Aki" as he is known in certain Washington circles where he is beloved, has an influence on Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko's thinking.

For Amaterasu's sake, I sure hope not.

Presumptuous

So Kobayashi Chiyomi (Hokkaido #5 District) is forced to give up her Diet seat because of the arrests of four of her associates for channeling four illegal donations to her campaign from the Hokkaido Teacher's Union totaling 16 million yen...and the PM stays on despite the indictment of two of his former aides for filing false statements regarding seven years of monthly cash payments from his mother totaling 1.17 billion yen?

Amaterasu, if the Prime Minister Hatoyama, Ozawa Ichiro or others in the Democratic Party of Japan think that throwing a female junior legislator to the wolves will in some way limit the damage that has been done to the Democratic Party of Japan's reputation, they are living on another planet. I cannot think of anything that will turn off floating voters, particularly women voters, more.

Let us hope that this report of the DPJ having a glaring double standard in the way it handles campaign contribution violations was just somebody's trial balloon.

Speaking about floating trial balloons, Richard Lawless and Nagashima Akihisa have been busy trying to bull rush the Futenma replacement base selection process. Lawless, since he is out of government, does not have to care about what he is spouting...and neither do we (Nota bene: Kato-san, please stop talking to these people). Nagashima, however, is in the government and has been caught talking way above his pay grade.

Nagashima is most likely telling the truth, that the Futenma onshore option is a done deal. However, telling the truth prematurely, as Nagashima seems to have done, can have serious consequences for his continued tenure at the Ministry of Defense.

Let us keep an eye on how Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirano Hirofumi handles Nagashima's sudden onset of loose lips syndrome.