Over the weekend I received suggestions from two friends to read the Jiji Press article on the decline of the factions.(Link)
My reaction? A shake of the head.
The factions are stalled as vehicles for leaders seeking to become prime ministers -- no question. Since the advent of the new single-member district electoral system 22 years ago, only three of the eight the Liberal Democratic Party Prime Ministers (counting Abe twice) have been faction leaders. The factions are still nurseries for prime ministers: every single LDP PM has been a member of a faction. However, that a person becomes the leader of a faction has only marginal bearing on his/her viability as a potential PM.
That being said, the factions are far from dead. In answer to the question asked by the LDP member quoted at the end of the article, the factions exist in order to keep the LDP together. They provide a mechanism for making appointments in a manner that dampens individual competition between members. Rotating posts amongst the factions, particularly sub-Cabinet level posts, enforces patience and forbearance among individuals who would otherwise fight tooth-and-claw to win a party post or political appointment. Factional rotation of appointments gives members reassurance that if they get along with others they will be rewarded, in due time. It also provides a mechanism for adjudicating appointment puzzles posed by the candidacies of several members with identical seniority records and tribal (zoku) affiliations. Handing the post to one person rather than another based an arbitrary (non-merit based) external attribute -- factional affiliation -- defuses a rivalry.
The argument against faction-based appointment decisions is that merit and talent and not rewarded. The institutional answer to that is "Yes, precisely." If competitions for party and government posts were talent-based, then the losers in competitions, had they any self-confidence (sort of a necessity in politics, really), would be left questioning the impartiality of the judgment or the relevance of the judging criteria. With factional rotation, however, a person loses a post because, well, "It was a decision based upon the need for balance among the factions." So nothing the candidate did was really wrong; the timing just was not right.
With the factions no longer led by persons with an inside track to becoming PM, where are we to look for good future PM candidates? With the rise of the theatrical PMs Hashimoto Ryutaro and Koizumi Jun'ichiro a pattern seemed to be emerging: wavy haired, energetic, outspoken, listenable, life-loving, defined, liberal economic reformist bottchan PMs with a need to play to the television cameras -- the type of personality and image tailor made for what political scientist Inoguchi Takashi has termed "kabuki politics" (Link). Neither Hashimoto nor Koizumi was the leader of his faction at the time. However, their flashy personas and stubbornness transcended their seeming institutional weaknesses.
Anyone who has had to listen to Abe Shinzo, who is not the leader of his faction, speak for more than 30 seconds, in whatever language, knows that while he is a bottchan, "listenable" and "defined" he ain't.
So how is it that Abe got himself elected in 2012 and reelected without a vote this year, making him a historically durable PM? That I will save for another time.
Showing posts with label Hashimoto Ryutaro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hashimoto Ryutaro. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Perhaps They Will Never Know
Today is a day of remembrance, a day when a goodly part of the nation will actually take a break from its usual frenetic Sundays to stand at attention for a minute of silence at 2:46 p.m. The emperor, bless his 78 year-old soul, will take part in memorial activities, despite having had a heart bypass operation 3 weeks ago. He at least believes this a day like no other. We should all think as he does.
In the spirit of the day, I shall restrain myself from my usual fury or glee at the latest shenanigans of the nation's political classes. My mind is consumed at present with a typhoon of contempt for all but a few of the elected and the meritocratic and nepotistic elites. However, I will hold the storm's fury back for this one day.
One point, however. Many publications and broadcasts (and one famous organization, inexplicably still headed by a defrocked imperial prince) have been carping about the lack of progress in the reconstruction of the ravaged and broken areas of the Tohoku (we should not forget that the earthquake and its aftershocks wreaked havoc far from the reach of the tsunami). The failure to begin rebuilding the lost communities, whether once again in the tsunami zones or on the shaved-off tops of nearby mountains, is ascribed to the current divided Diet or, in certain quarters, the inexperienced hands of the Democratic Party of Japan-led government.
No and no and No and NO!
The elites who are charged with guiding us, or at least using our tax money wisely, are not at a loss with what to do with the Tohoku. They are at a loss with what to do with Japan -- and have been so for 20 years now. Oh some of them have a plan, the Abe Shinzo-Shimomura Kokubun-Hiranuma Takeos and their ilk, to turn the populace into authority-fearing, emperor-loving, nation-building automatons...but sorry, been there, done that and no, it does not turn out very nicely, thank you very much (note to government of the PRC: imprison your colonels now, while you still can). The Liberal Democratic Party and the followers of Ozawa Ichiro made it their common cause in the midst of the disaster's rescue and stabilization phase to drive Prime Minister Kan Naoto from office. Now they are trying to do the same to Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko during what is still the recovery phase. If either of these opposition camps were to seize the wheel of the ship of state, however, neither would have the foggiest notion in what direction to sail the Nihon Maru.
The ship has been adrift for two decades. Every so often a steady hand has taken hold of the tiller -- Hashimoto Ryutaro, Koizumi Jun'ichiro -- but it was always to right wrongs ten years too late, when it hardly mattered anymore. The victory by the DPJ was the same -- its program of putting people's livelihoods first was not revolutionary -- it was archaic, practically an anachronism. By the time the LDP had power stripped from out of its cold, near-dead claws, the treasury was empty; the countryside depleted, dependent and despondent; the cities ugly, unkempt and angry.
So today, as the cameras sweep over the barren lots and skeletons of structures for this anniversary, before running off to cover some other epiphenomenon or catastrophe, tune out the blather about the present day political mess. The images are of Japan as it is, as it has been under the veneer of efficiency and equality and beyond Tokyo's glitz and youth and energy. The stillness and lethargy are not aberrant: they are symptomatic of a ruling class without time in their schedules for the people they are supposed to be leading.
In the spirit of the day, I shall restrain myself from my usual fury or glee at the latest shenanigans of the nation's political classes. My mind is consumed at present with a typhoon of contempt for all but a few of the elected and the meritocratic and nepotistic elites. However, I will hold the storm's fury back for this one day.
One point, however. Many publications and broadcasts (and one famous organization, inexplicably still headed by a defrocked imperial prince) have been carping about the lack of progress in the reconstruction of the ravaged and broken areas of the Tohoku (we should not forget that the earthquake and its aftershocks wreaked havoc far from the reach of the tsunami). The failure to begin rebuilding the lost communities, whether once again in the tsunami zones or on the shaved-off tops of nearby mountains, is ascribed to the current divided Diet or, in certain quarters, the inexperienced hands of the Democratic Party of Japan-led government.
No and no and No and NO!
The elites who are charged with guiding us, or at least using our tax money wisely, are not at a loss with what to do with the Tohoku. They are at a loss with what to do with Japan -- and have been so for 20 years now. Oh some of them have a plan, the Abe Shinzo-Shimomura Kokubun-Hiranuma Takeos and their ilk, to turn the populace into authority-fearing, emperor-loving, nation-building automatons...but sorry, been there, done that and no, it does not turn out very nicely, thank you very much (note to government of the PRC: imprison your colonels now, while you still can). The Liberal Democratic Party and the followers of Ozawa Ichiro made it their common cause in the midst of the disaster's rescue and stabilization phase to drive Prime Minister Kan Naoto from office. Now they are trying to do the same to Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko during what is still the recovery phase. If either of these opposition camps were to seize the wheel of the ship of state, however, neither would have the foggiest notion in what direction to sail the Nihon Maru.
The ship has been adrift for two decades. Every so often a steady hand has taken hold of the tiller -- Hashimoto Ryutaro, Koizumi Jun'ichiro -- but it was always to right wrongs ten years too late, when it hardly mattered anymore. The victory by the DPJ was the same -- its program of putting people's livelihoods first was not revolutionary -- it was archaic, practically an anachronism. By the time the LDP had power stripped from out of its cold, near-dead claws, the treasury was empty; the countryside depleted, dependent and despondent; the cities ugly, unkempt and angry.
So today, as the cameras sweep over the barren lots and skeletons of structures for this anniversary, before running off to cover some other epiphenomenon or catastrophe, tune out the blather about the present day political mess. The images are of Japan as it is, as it has been under the veneer of efficiency and equality and beyond Tokyo's glitz and youth and energy. The stillness and lethargy are not aberrant: they are symptomatic of a ruling class without time in their schedules for the people they are supposed to be leading.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Hypocrisy Watch: Ozawa Ichiro
Appearing Thursday on a Web-based interview program (because he does not do mainstream media, with all their annoying "questions") former Democratic Party of Japan leader, former party Secretary-General (under the pathetic Hatoyama Cabinet) and incorrigible schemer Ozawa Ichiro told his audience the following:
Ozawa Ichiro wants to avoid instability in Japanese politics. Ozawa Ichiro!
Up is Down. Left is Right. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength!
OK, let us forget, for a moment, the last 19 years. Let us just concentrate on this month, where Ozawa Ichiro has:
- led the first meeting of an anti-consumption tax rise study group, attended by 101 members of the Diet. (12.02.09 - the same day he made the above statement - J)
- done nothing to discourage (i.e. - encouraged) Hirono Tadashi, a member of Ozawa's support group, to resign as the director of the DPJ's public affairs unit. Hirono's reason for quitting: he cannot countenance the Noda cabinet's plans to offer legislation raising the consumption tax. (12.02.09 - the same day as Ozawa made the above statement - J)
- invited Aichi Governor Omura Takeaki, who is trying to establish a regional anti-tax party based in the prefectures surrounding Nagoya, to speak at the Ozawa Juku, Ozawa's annual convention for training politicians. Omura will be speaking to the trainees, most of whom are members of the Diet loyal to Ozawa, on February 11. (12.02.07 - J)
- met with former Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio to form a united front against the Noda government's plans to raise the consumption tax. When asked whether his actions were not in tune with the party's policies, Ozawa replied, "Which is the canary that has forgotten his song?" (12.02.03 - J)
Granted, Ozawa's anti-Noda Cabinet activities can be said to be grounded in principle. He thinks it daft to impose a rise in the consumption tax during a period of deflation -- which is sound in economic, if not in governance, terms (even in good economic times, no Japanese prime minister since Hashimoto Ryutaro has had the intestinal fortitude to raise the consumption tax -- despite all projections showing a rise was necessary to cover increasing social welfare costs associated with the aging of Japan's population). Ozawa's stance is also smart politics, for he predicts, with historical precedent and common sense as his guides, that raising the consumption tax will lead to a DPJ wipeout in the next elections. (J)
For Ozawa to claim, however, that his in-your-face anti-consumption tax activities do not make him a opponent of the DPJ leadership is disingenuous, nay, mendacious.
"Neither the Liberal Democratic Party, neither the DPJ, neither the Your Party and the Osaka Ishin no kai will be able to seize a majority [of seats in the House of Representatives if there is an election]. Since instability in politics will lead to the unhappiness of Japan, I would like to avoid this situation." (J)Aaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh! Oh, oh, my brain hurts!
Ozawa Ichiro wants to avoid instability in Japanese politics. Ozawa Ichiro!
Up is Down. Left is Right. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength!
OK, let us forget, for a moment, the last 19 years. Let us just concentrate on this month, where Ozawa Ichiro has:
- led the first meeting of an anti-consumption tax rise study group, attended by 101 members of the Diet. (12.02.09 - the same day he made the above statement - J)
- done nothing to discourage (i.e. - encouraged) Hirono Tadashi, a member of Ozawa's support group, to resign as the director of the DPJ's public affairs unit. Hirono's reason for quitting: he cannot countenance the Noda cabinet's plans to offer legislation raising the consumption tax. (12.02.09 - the same day as Ozawa made the above statement - J)
- invited Aichi Governor Omura Takeaki, who is trying to establish a regional anti-tax party based in the prefectures surrounding Nagoya, to speak at the Ozawa Juku, Ozawa's annual convention for training politicians. Omura will be speaking to the trainees, most of whom are members of the Diet loyal to Ozawa, on February 11. (12.02.07 - J)
- met with former Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio to form a united front against the Noda government's plans to raise the consumption tax. When asked whether his actions were not in tune with the party's policies, Ozawa replied, "Which is the canary that has forgotten his song?" (12.02.03 - J)
Granted, Ozawa's anti-Noda Cabinet activities can be said to be grounded in principle. He thinks it daft to impose a rise in the consumption tax during a period of deflation -- which is sound in economic, if not in governance, terms (even in good economic times, no Japanese prime minister since Hashimoto Ryutaro has had the intestinal fortitude to raise the consumption tax -- despite all projections showing a rise was necessary to cover increasing social welfare costs associated with the aging of Japan's population). Ozawa's stance is also smart politics, for he predicts, with historical precedent and common sense as his guides, that raising the consumption tax will lead to a DPJ wipeout in the next elections. (J)
For Ozawa to claim, however, that his in-your-face anti-consumption tax activities do not make him a opponent of the DPJ leadership is disingenuous, nay, mendacious.
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