Wednesday, August 31, 2005 this on?

Hokkaido - district seats

District #1 -Yokomichi (DPJ)
District #2 - Mitsui (DPJ)
District #4 - Hachiro (DPJ)
District #7 - Kitamura (LDP)
District #10 - Kodaira (DPJ)
District #11 - Nakagawa (LDP)
District #12 - Takebe (LDP)

District #3 - Ishizaki (LDP)
District #5 - Kobayashi (DPJ)
District #6 - Sasaki (DPJ)
District #8 - Sato (LDP)
District #9 - Iwakura (LDP)

Hokkaido - proportional seats

LDP - 3
DPJ - 3
Komeito - 1
Daichi - 1

Predicting reelections requires little mental acuity. In the district seats I see switching, I am going to take a shot in predicting that Foreign Minister Machimura will lose out to Kobayashi in the ground war for District #5. By contrast, I am taking a tremendous leap in predicting a defeat for Hatoyama Yukio in District #9. Two elections ago Hatoyama barely squeaked through; this time the Koizumi oikaze just might sweep him out.

In the proportional seats, I see the LDP and the DPJ in a tie, with the LDP slightly ahead in the vote total. The Komeito will get its token seat. I have been warned that Hokkaido is still full of Muneacs, so I am giving a seat to Daichi -- though it kills me to do so. If the Northern Con fails to win a seat, then I see a chance for the JCP to pick up a proportional seat.

Therefore, in the Hokkaido Bloc

Komeito 1
Daichi 1

No comments: