Inherit the Wind

Ozawa Ichiro's keeping quiet -- so he is following Prime Minister Kan Naoto's suggestion that he do so for the good of the nation, the party and himself.

It is seems the Old Toad has read the fine print, though. He was asked to keep quiet, not stay silent.

Whilst campaigning in Yamanashi Prefecture on Thursday for his buddy Koshi'ishi Azuma (Doesn't Koshi'ishi's website make just hop on the Chuo Line and go to Yamanashi right now?) Ozawa made a rather public visit to the grave of Kanemaru Shin, a rather interesting and embarrassing choice of local worthies to honor with a visit at election time.

After a roadside speech to about 40 local residents, Ozawa also uttered his first words of criticism of the new DPJ regime since its installation three weeks ago. They were hardly hair-raising quotes: he told reporters he thought Kan's goal of leading the party to winning "54 seat plus alpha" too weak, saying that the goal of a ruling party is to win a majority (which in the case of this upcoming election means 60 or more seats - a goal that Kan yesterday declared he would "spare no effort in achieving"). Ozawa also said that in order to improve the Japan's fiscal position, raising the consumption tax should not be done soon -- that the party's stated goal is to get rid of as much wasteful spending as possible first.

On Friday, up in Aomori, Ozawa got a little bolder, playing the concern troll regarding the decision to talk about raising the consumption tax in the run up to an election. He dangerously chose to play the city/country dichotomy card --- shining a light on the truth that cannot speak its name, that following this election the DPJ intends to terminate the countryside's dependency on largess and support from the center, forcing the countryside to either pull itself up by its bootstraps or fail -- saying, "The prime minister seems to talk continuously about [raising the tax to 10%] but out here in the countryside, as compared to the city, the economic situation is severe. If you talk out [in the countryside] about a 10% consumptipon tax, for myself this gives me tremendous worries."

Just to throw salt in the wound, Ozawa reminded listeners that under the Hatoyama Administration (of which he, of course, was the string puller) the DPJ had issued a public promise to not raise the consumption tax for three to four years.

Way to be a team player when your party needs you, Ozawa-san.

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For an explanation of the title, see Proverbs 11:29. For some photos of a few of Yamanashi's places to visit, check out a few selections from the Flickr site.

Notes to the Wise

Keep up with Sigma1, Nejibana and Paul Jackson's Tokyo Notes.

They are doing their darndest to keep us from being ignorant.

Call Me Unreliable

Dear MTC,

Exactly how, if we are to go by your projected vote results, is the Komeito going to win four district seats when the party is only fielding three district candidates?

Uhhh...electoral magic?

For a text a little less magical, please check out my expanded piece on Kan and the consumption tax picked up by the very kind folks at PanOrient News, a fledgling English/Japanese/Arabic news service.

Sincerely,

And the Home of the Brave

Just four weeks ago, we were looking, with not an insignificant amount of despair, at a 2010 House of Councillors election being fought over whether or not the PM is such a dufus that did not actually know how $14,000,000 of donations from his mom were handled in his accounts; whether Ozawa Ichiro is or is not Richard III; over whether the Democratic Party of Japan should be castigated for making promises it could not keep (because they were fiscally unsound) or for not keeping those promises; over how far backwards the DPJ was willing to bend -- to the small-scale farmers, to the trucking industry, to the postmasters and the postal unions -- in giving them what they wanted to the detriment of the national weal.

An ugly, dispiriting exercise, in other words.

Now, just a few weeks later, with Hatoyama Yukio, Kamei Shizuka and Ozawa Ichiro sent to the sidelines, the public is being hit with a hard, inconvenient truth -- the country takes in too little revenue to pay for the services the public has come to expect, meaning that taxes will have to be raised -- and that the voters will have to make their choices in the election booth based in large part on the soundness of their plans the various parties have put forther confronting that inconvenient truth.

On May 2, just a month and a half ago, the Tokyo Shimbun ran an explainer article, a little Socratic dialogue about the struggle inside the ruling coalition over when the subject of raising taxes will be broached: before the election, after the election or never.

Q: "So if the experts and the politicians both are thinking the same way, then it is in fact already decided that tax rates will be raised?"

A: "No, no, no. While you are likely to hear expressions like 'We will have to with haste grapple with fundamental reform of the tax system, including the raising of the consumption tax", nobody is brave enough to say what the new tax rate will be or when it will come into effect. Because whatever the government's plan is, it will be in effect a part of the DPJ's manifesto for the House of Councillors election."

Q: "And the DPJ has made a public promise to raise the consumption tax before, hasn't it?"

A: "Yes, in the DPJ's 2005 House of Representatives election manifesto the party put forth a plan to raise the consumption tax rate exclusively in order to stabilize the pension system. However, in that election, the DPJ suffered a landslide loss."

Nobody is brave enough...while it is true that Prime Minister Kan Naoto, DPJ Secretary-General Edano Yukio and Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku Yoshito are calling the bluff of the Liberal Democratic Party, which had challenged the ruling coalition to show some guts and talk about raising the consumption tax to 10% - a number the LDP never dared mention when it was in power save as a hypothetical -- it is not hyperbole to say that they have proven the Tokyo Shimbun wrong. The DPJ's new core leadership knows that talk of raising taxes is political poison. The party has taken a body blow (as did the LDP before it under Takeshita Noboru and Hashimoto Ryutaro) for talking honestly about Japan's fiscal situation and the unpleasant business of rebalancing the whole.

Let the tough talk continue. Hurrah.

(This post has been reedited for clarity, based upon a reader's comment. - MTC)

Let Me Guess - Just Guess

Today is when the starter's gun goes off in the great scamble for seats in the July 11 House of Councillors election. There is a great deal speculation in the air and a flood of analysis yet to come...but let me venture a very rough early estimate of the final results based solely on the polls, not the individual candidates.

That must wait for another rainy day.

In the meantive, my guess is:

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ): 66 seats (43 district and 23 proportional)

Liberal Democratic Party of Japan: 31 seats (21 district and 10 proportional)

New Komeito: 11 seats (4 district and 7 proportional)

Your Party (Minna no To): 8 seats (2 district and 6 proportional)

Social Democratic Party of Japan (DSP): 3 seats (1 district and 2 proportional)

Communist Party of Japan (JCP): 3 seats (3 proportional)

Sunrise Party (Tachiagare Nippon): 1 seat (1 proportional)

All other parties: 0 seats


Over the next few weeks I will offer refinements and backup information on the individual races. An overwhelming victory will give Prime Minister Kan Naoto and his Cabinet the authority they will need to remake Japan according to both standard DPJ priniciples and the current, rapidly changing geo-political and geo-economic order. With comfortable majorities in both Houses of the Diet, the Diet will pass any legislation leaderhip may cook up -- and it has plenty of projects in the sketchy stage.

At which point, the revolution will most certainly be on.

The June 19-20 Kyodo Poll - The Small Price of Honesty

After the polls close on July 11, and the various and sundry winners shout their banzais or bow deeply and take responsibility for their failures, this blessed land will still have to be governed, and clearly under a radically different and likely painful new system of fiscal balance. The leaders of the Democratic Party of Japan, with no small amount of cheerleading from the bureaucrats of the Ministry of Finance, have called the bluff of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan on the matter of raising taxes to bring the budget into primary balance.

Of course the Kan government and the DPJ have paid a price.

* * *	Most recent	Previous
Cabinet support
Asahi	50%	59%
Yomiuri	55%	59%
Kyodo	59%	65%
Will vote for DPJ in proportional vote	-	-
Asahi	36%	43%
Yomiuri	30%	31%
Kyodo	26.3%	29.4%
Will vote for the LDP in the proportional vote	-	-
Asahi	17%	14%
Yomiuri	14%	16%
Kyodo	15.8%	14.5%

Normally, no sane party would talk about raising taxes before an election. Certainly, the prime minister has been backtracking a bit on the pledge. Nevertheless, the new core DPJ leadership grasped the nettle of public finance, talking about doubling the consumption tax -- and has suffered little for it. Its opponents, the LDP, have certainly not reaped a windfall from this supposed fundamental political blunder of being honest about the hole Japan finds itself in.

While being honest about the need to increase taxes may lose the DPJ a few seats, losing those seats seems a heck of small price to pay compared to coming back to the voters, hat in hand, pleading, "Sorry, we were not entirely truthful during the campaign. We cannot balance the budget merely through squeezing out wasteful spending. We really do need to raise taxes. OK?"

In 2009, Hatoyama Yukio and Ozawa Ichiro tried to convince the voters that taxes do not need to be raised to bring the budget into balance. After the government put the bureaucrats and their perks through the ringer in the Government Revitalization Unit proces, the amount of grease extracted was 1% of just one year's budget. The government then produced a budget where borrowing was greater than revenues.

Folks notice that kind of thing.

So while the papers are braying (chortling even) about the sudden drop in the support level of the Cabinet and the DPJ from the euphoric heights hit following the downfall of the spend-til-you-drop Hatoyama and Ozawa and their replacement by the Neo-Kan fiscal conservatives (yes, that one is mine, I claim it) the press need to give the Cabinet and the leading party of the ruling coalition something of a break.

The Kan government has treated the electorate like adults...and has survived the experiment.

House of Councillors - The Basic Numbers

Based on what seems to be a request from a commenter...

Number of seats, total: 242

Terms in office: 6 years, with half the seats up for election at staggered three year intervals

Total number of district seats: 146

Total number of party proportional seats: 96

Total seats currently occupied: 241 (one vacancy)

Total needed for a simple majority: 122

Current number of seats held by the DPJ+Shifuryokukai*+PNP+JNP** caucus: 122

Current make up of majority caucus: DPJ/Shinfuryokukai (116), PNP (5), JNP (1)

Number of seats up for election: DPJ/Shinfuryokukai (54), PNP (2), JNP (0)

Number of seats DPJ needs to win in order to have independent control of the House of Councillors: 60 ( 54+6 )

Number of seats up for election in single seat districts: 29

Number of seats up for election in two seat districts: 24

Number of seats up for election in three seat districts: 15

Number of seats up for election in a five seat district: 5

Number of seats up for election in the party proportional election: 48


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* Defunct organization.

** Though Hirayama Makoto caucuses with the majority in the name of the Japan New Party, the Japan New Party does not consider him a party member.

Oh, Amaterasu, How Did I Ever Miss This One?

A photo for the ages -- let us just hope the age in question is not ours.

Right wing heroine and TV personality Sakurai Yoshiko, former prime minister and LDP member Abe Shinzo, Sunrise Party (Tachiagare Nippon) leader Hiranuma Takeo and The Spirit of Japan party leader Yamada Hiroshi announce the formation of a united front against the Democratic Party of Japan.

- The Hanoi field hospital (1945)-born author of the infamous "The Facts" full page advertisement in The Washington Post, as well as hundreds of revisionist articles, opinion pieces and books.

- The grandson of a Class A War Criminal. And lots of other stuff.

- The adopted son of a Class A War Criminal.

- A signer of the official letter in support of "The Facts" advertisement and former mayor of the only major city whose public middle schools used the controversial Fusosha "New History Textbook."

Honestly, when will these folks find some other hobbies to pursue?

Photo courtesy: The Sankei Shimbun

House of Councillors Election 2010 - the District Elections

The other day I took a look at the historical vote totals in the proportional party list half of the House of Councillors elections, then tried to make a prediction (since updated) of how the proportional seats will be apportioned out in the upcoming election, if current trends in the public opinion polls reflect of the preferences of the voters on July 11.

Now as which candidates will win the 73 district seats up for grabs on July 11, a number of factors will affect the outcomes.

- In this telegenic ages is the candidate a handsome, outgoing, energetic person or a warmed over lump of human flesh? (Then again, in 1995 the elfin Aoshima Yukio, a member of the House of Councillors, ran for Governor of Tokyo by making only the mandatory taped five minute free televised speech, then spending the rest of the campaign period locked in his apartment -- and still won.)

- Does he or she have any scandals or embarrassing statements to live down?
(Then again, in 2004 Suzuki Muneo and in 2007 Tsujimoto Hitomi, both convicted felons at the times, both finished just out of the running in their House of Councillors district races. Both are now members of the House of Representatives)

- Is he or she an LDP hopeful in Eastern Japan or a Democrat in Western Japan, as the country is largely split into a Democratic East and and an LDP West?

Nevertheless, there are some questions that seemingly will have significant impacts, particularly in the rural, single seat prefectures, where the reversal of Ozawa Ichiro's reforms of the DPJ will tend to support a reversion to historic norms in voting patterns.

To whit:

- Where will the estimated 300,000 to 1,000,000 post office-related voters cast their ballots? It is not likely that they will plunk down their vote for the Democratic Party of Japan after the government let the postal reform bill die on Wednesday. However, can the postmasters and their unions go back to supporting LDP candidates, seeing as how the LDP was the party that passed the original privatization law, in overwhelming fashion and furthermore, lacks the votes in the House of Representatives to be a force capable of sponsoring legislation in the post office's favor?

- How will the farmers vote? They received their price supports, as promised in the 2009 DPJ manifesto and the current manifesto promises continuing efforts. However, the guarantor of the farmers actually receiving similar supports in the future was former DPJ Secretary-General Ozawa Ichiro, who is gone from the scene, at least for no. The new DPJ leadership team seems to be entirely the sort of urban- suburban- white collar cost-cutting and budget rationalization crowd that will target farmers and other primary good producers as inordinately well treated members of the public.
Should farmers, fisherman and foresters trust that the Kan Naoto/Edano Yukio-led DPJ will continue to coddle agriculture in the name of preserving food security? Or will the debacle of the foor-and-mouth disease in Miyazaki prefecture prompt every single farmer in the land to abandon the DJP?

- The government of Hatoyama Yukio failed to follow through on the DPJ campaign promises regarding the elimination of expressway tolls and rescinding of the temporary fuel taxes. Unsurprisingly, the nation's parcel delivery and short- and medium-haul trucking industry is furious. Will they go back to voting for the LDP, even though the LDP has no fiscally sound way of satisfying the requests of the trucking industry?

- Are the voters still in the "let's throw the bums out" mood they have been in since pretty much 2001? Due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, should the DPJ can pretty much write off Kumamoto and Kagoshima Prefectures, the neighbors of the stricken Miyazaki? Will Aoki Mikio's selection of his son to take over his seat in Shimane Prefecture blow up into a minor public relations fiasco for the LDP in the Chugoku region?

- Will a relatively early election increase turnout, generally seen as a plus for the DPJ?　　July 11 is well before the midsummer break for the schools; before the time workers start to leave their electoral districts on their summer vacation; and before much of central Japan heats up like a furnace, wilting both campaigners and voter patience?

However, the big kahuna in this whole election -- and the only reason that Ozawa Ichiro was able to cling to the position of Secretary-General for so long, despite every indication that his presence in a leadership position was unacceptable for 80% of the electorate -- is the LDP's district performance in the likely absence of electoral cooperation between the LDP and the New Komeito.

Look at these two sets of numbers:

2009 House of Representatives

Total votes for party proportional seats,
by party

DPJ 29,844,799
LDP 18,844,217
New Komeitō 8,054,007
Communist 4,943,886
Socialist 3,006,160

Total votes for party candidates,
by affiliation of candidate

DPJ 33,475,799
LDP 27,301,892
New Komeitō 782,784
Communist 2,978,354
Socialist 1,376,739

In 2009, when the LDP and the New Komeito were coalition partners, LDP district candidates received a net 8 million votes from New Komeito voters - a full one quarter of all votes cast in the districts for LDP candidates.

If the members of the New Komeito do not ride to the rescue of the LDP at the last minute, it is unlikely the LDP will defend all of its current seats or seize a single DPJ seat in the upcoming election.

This must have been Ozawa's ace in the hole - the reason why the DPJ's plummeting poll numbers did not fret him.

I will do a district-by-district run down for the country...but it hardly seems worth the trouble. Without the New Komeito by its side, the LDP is set up for a huge fall.

Table: Projected House of Councillor July 11 Results, Party Proportional Votes

Party	Jun 7-8 Kyodo poll	projected seats
DPJ	48.3%	(23~24)
LDP	14.5%	(9~10)
New Komeito	3.1%	(6~7)
Your Party	8.1%	(6)
JCP	2.3%	(2)
SDP	1.9%	(1~2)
PNP	1.9%	(0~1)
Sunrise	1.3%	(0~1)
New Renaissance	0.6%	(0)
The Spirit of Japan	0.1%	(0)
New Party Nippon	0.1%	(0)
Undecided	15.2%	(0)

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Total seats

48

Now as to my predictions on who will win the 73 district seats up for grabs on July 11, see my next few posts.