Two Presentations Of Great Importance On Abenomics

There are two must-not-miss presentations at Temple University, Japan this month -- neither of which, paradoxically, I can attend.

But you, dear reader, possibly can.

- The one tonight (Link) has Richard Smethurst speaking about the man whose face should be on the 10,000 yen bill (pax, Fukuzawa Yukichi admirers). I have heard on the authority of one of the best lecturers I know that Dr. Smethurst is a solid speaker. As for Takahashi Korekiyo, about whom Dr. Smethurst wrote the book, his brilliance, humanity and death haunt me. That the government of Abe Shinzo has sought to align itself and its economic policies on the side of the angels by linking Abenomics to Takahashi is both thrilling and disquieting.

- On November 29, Naomi Fink, CEO of Europacifica Consulting, will be speaking on Abenomics and the wealth gap. (Link)

Why you should go, even if the subject matter or time slot are outside your comfort zone?

Simple: wherever the room and whatever its size, Ms. Fink is almost certainly the smartest person in it.

You will learn about this blessed land.

A Wish List, Opened

How?

That is the inescapable question.

After the hoopla and security overkill of the Toyako Summit dies down, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet will be left with seven weeks of housekeeping duties and summer reading time before the start of the extraordinary session. The political classes will disperse to their home districts for seven weeks of vital constituent hand-holding and, when appropriate, backslapping—-an ominously long time for politicians to be immersed in a bath of personal and local complaints. In the absence of an election, the nation will largely put politics aside, focusing its attention on what is truly important: the Koshien high school baseball tournament--which probably will not, for demographic and wealth reasons, be won by a team from the Hokuriku, Chugoku, Shikoku or Tohoku regions.

But once this idyllic summer—possibly the last summer of the LDP's era of dominance—comes to an end, the Prime Minister, his Cabinet, his party and the ruling coalition will find themselves facing a daunting question.

How?

How will it be possible, in just a few months before the New Year, to draft and pass legislation

- reforming the payment system of the wildly unpopular eldercare system
- fulfilling the first phase of decentralization
- laying the groundwork for a fundamental rebalancing of the tax system
- renewing the Indian Ocean Maritime Self Defense Forces dispatch
- shifting the gasoline tax revenues from road construction to the general fund

over the determined opposition and delaying tactics of large segments of the Liberal Democratic Party, not to mention the knee-jerk opposition and delaying tactics of the majority in the House of Councillors?

And what about the big items on the agenda, the looming multifaceted issues requiring a flurry of action after years of benign neglect, such as:

- providing for the physical and financial needs of burgeoning population of the very old, at a reasonable cost
- righting the crippled, parasitic economies of the rural areas
- providing the legal and ideological framework for an influx of immigrant labor, both skilled and unskilled, temporary and permanent
-reversing the growing number of suicides
- fulfilling promises made at international events like TICAD and Toyako
- increasing the birth rate
- reversing the runaway destruction of the environment, both global and local
- preparing for a post-hydrocarbon-burning world
- providing for Japan's security as the world's power relationships undergo a phase of rapid realignment (and keeping the Americans happy with the Japan-U.S. security alliance through a more gradual and less episodic evolution)

all while the two largest parties in the Diet do not speak to each other...the bureaucracy is demoralized and despised...and the press and intellectuals are perceived to be shabby, corruptible and narcissistic?

How is it possible to change everything that must be changed--when everything that must be changed is .....everything?

Let's Gets Stiffed Again... Like We Were Last Summer

Today marks the first day of the kōreisha iryō seido, the new national health insurance plan for those older than 75 years of age.

The good news is that the deductible for the cost of a doctor visit or a hospital stay falls from 30% to 10%. The bad news is that every individual over 75 years old must pay into the system, meaning the elimination the dependent family member (fuyōkazoku) reduction.

The average price of the new superseniors medical insurance policy is 72,000 yen per year per person. However, the price of insurance varies between the prefectures according to formulas worked out by prefectural insurance associations for the cost of providing medical care for seniors.

The big loser in these calculations (when it comes to central government programs is this even a question which prefecture takes the bullet?) is Kanagawa Prefecture, with an annual insurance fee of 94,000 yen per gray head. Right behind Kanagawa is Tokyo at 91,000 yen per capita. At the other end of the scale is Aomori Prefecture, whose insurance association is demanding only 45,000 yen per person.

Shakai kakusa, anyone?

Moral of the story--if you are over 75, retired, not wealthy and have serious medical problems, you should consider moving to somewhere cold and bleak where the doctors are few and far between.

Your total payments into the system will be reduced...one way or another.