Tsujimoto Kiyomi Shocks the SDP and Japan's Political Establishment*

Tsujimoto Kiyomi has never been one to avoid the spotlight. Bursting into the national consciousness with her infuriated attempt to pin down former Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro into answering a question -- her shouted "Sori! Sori! Sori!" becoming something of a national catchphrase -- she later astounded all by getting caught with a ghost employee on her tiny staff -- a crime for which she was arrested, convicted and given a suspended sentence. Then, despite the supposedly lifelong scarring a conviction of a crime usually inflicts upon a person, she did the one thing she knew how to do: run for national office, most recently winning the Osaka #10 district seat in 2009 -- becoming one of the few of members of the Socialist Democratic Party to hold a district rather than a proportional seat.

Last night, Tsujimoto shook the party and the political realm with talk of leaving SDP. For the party, her departure would be a public relations disaster: aside from party leader Fukushima Mizuho, Tsujimoto is the party's most recognizable politician. She is frequently partnered with the local candidate on party political posters -- possibly even more often than Fukushima herself. The party also went out on a limb readmitting her, a convicted felon, back into the party's ranks. SDP Secretary Shigeno Yasumasa, with whom Tsujimoto had her meeting last night, is adamantly rejecting acceptance of her resignation.

However, Tsujimoto is most likely on her way out. Her appointment as Senior Vice Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism under the Hatoyama Cabinet capped a long fight back to political respectability. Having to surrender her post following the SDP's decision to withdraw from the ruling coalition over Fukushima's opposition to the Futenma-to-Henoko agreement was a bitter pill for Tsujimoto. Normally stoic and sarcastic, she wept profusely and bitterly as she said goodby to her staff at the Ministry.

Tsujimoto's remaining in the party after its withdrawal from the coalition seems to have been conditional. If Fukushima's dramatic dismissal from the Cabinet over the Futenma deal led to a spike in electoral support for the SDP nationwide or for its candidates in the districts, then Tsujimoto would swallow her disappointment and stick with the party. However, on July 11 the party performed disastrously: losing one of its three seats from the proportional list and in all of its districts lost -- even in the Okinawa contest against an LDP candidate who had only recently switched from supporting the 2006 Roadmap to opposing it.

So where does Tsujimoto go after leaving? The eventual natural fit for her is the ruling Democratic Party of Japan. As the first defector to join the DPJ after that party's terrible showing in the July 11 elections and a former loyal member of the Hatoyama government, Tsujimoto would certainly be rewarded with a position within the party well above what her seniority would merit.

A question right now is whether anyone within the ruling party will be insisting on receiving the credit for encouraging Tsujimoto to leave the SDP. Based on a photograph I flagged in September 2007, I can imagine one person who might have a reasonable and quite inconvenient (for the current DPJ leadership group) claim to have been working toward this result for quite some time.

Tsujimoto's defection and likely cooperation as an independent with the DPJ--utnil such time as she could actually join the party -- points out a little remarked reality of the post-July 11 Japanese political world: with 306 seats in the House of Representatives, the DPJ is closer to the two-thirds majority it would need to override actions of the House of Councillors than it is to a coalition producing a working majority in the House of Councillors. In terms of passing legislation the DPJ likes, luring 13 more legislators into cooperation with the party in the House of Representatives seems a far better bet than trying to deal with the standoffish Watanabe Yoshimi's Your Party or the self-righteous New Komeito in the House of Councillors.

* An earlier version of this post had an incorrect acronym in the title line, leading to a host of incorrect versions of the English language name of the Shakai Minshuto.

Regrets, I've Had A Few

I did not know whether to be charmed, appalled or frightened last night when the television networks asked Prime Minister Asō Francisco Tarō to give his explanation of why the voters rejected his party. This was an hour after NHK, an aggressive holdout, had broken down and allowed its ticker of seats won by the Democratic Party of Japan to exceed 241, joining the other networks (except, unsurprisingly, Fuji TV) in recognizing that the DPJ had won control of the House of Representatives.

Despite being fully aware that his Liberal Democratic Party had fallen from power, Prime Minister Asō began going through the main points of his party's elections manifesto...and not just once, either. In interview after interview, he outlined how well-thought out the LDP's policy program is. He seemed incapable of processing the idea that his party's election promises were defunct, a subject for historians and non-fiction writers.

He was still in campaign mode -- in an scary semi-delusional way.

Francisco needs a rest. I hope they let him have one. He will go down in history as the man led the LDP into the political wilderness...and not just into the wilderness but into the wilderness with a kilo of buckshot in its backside. He will suffer greatly for this. For all his many faults, the least of which is an undisciplined tongue, Asō Tarō clearly loves his country, "warts and all" as the saying goes. I wish him well.

As for the night's other losers, I will probably miss only Kamei Hisaoki, the secretary-general of the People's New Party. Of all the politicians who appeared regularly on television, he alone always made sense, calling upon the better nature of his fellow politicians (a hopeless task) and his fellow citizens (a much easier row to hoe). I hope the networks will continue to have him comment on the day's affairs, so that we continue to hear the voice of one of the truly rare advocates of simple human decency.

As for the undeserving winners, well, there is small band of them -- and not all or even many of hail from within the LDP. Tsujimoto Kiyomi, a convicted felon who faked the existence of a secretary on her Diet accounts, won a district seat (OK, so it was in Osaka - proving there is no accounting for taste). No matter how many times I might have this result explained to me, I am certain I will not understand it.

As for another example of the happy underserving, well, I once heard it said that if Armageddon came, and destruction rained down upon the world, the last things to survive would be rats, cockroaches and Cher. I am fairly certain now that this formulation is incorrect. If Armageddon really comes, and destruction rains down upon the world, the last things to survive will be rats, cockroaches and Suzuki Muneo.

As for the question I asked the other day, the Wall Street Journal is saying that the DPJ leadership is going to ask former party leader Ozawa Ichirō to take charge of the party's 2010 House of Councillors campaign. It is going to be hard enough to keeps the hounds of the press -- many of whom have just lost their raison d'être as the lapdogs of a particular ruling party politician -- from continuously harrassing prime minister apparent Hatoyama Yukio over the fraudulent assignment of donor names to phoney donations to his political campaign fund. To have Ozawa in the Cabinet and the legal troubles of his closest aide clogging up the airwaves would be just too much for the new government to handle.