There are something funny things going on in terms of these mega polls supporting projections of a massive LDP victory on December 14*
1) The Yomiuri and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun both are basing their reporting on a survey with 120,000 voters called, 80,000 responses, and a 64% response rate.
Oddly identical numbers.
2) The survey the Yomiuri used found 42% of respondents Support the Abe Cabinet and 39% Do Not Support the Cabinet. In the Yomiuri survey done three weeks ago, 55% of voters contact said they Support the Cabinet, and 36% said they Do Not Support.
Should we be talking about momentum (勢い) in our headlines so much, ladies and gentlemen of the press?
3) The Kyodo News is saying it polled 150,000 households and received 120,000 responses, a response rate of 80% (polling organizations normally report a 55%~65% rate of response).
I do not doubt that if all these different polls are showing a distribution of voting patterns ending up at the 300+ seat figure for the Liberal Democratic Party that there is a significant likelihood of the party winning that many seat.
I would like to wait until next week, when The Asahi Shimbun at least promises to have snapshots of every one of the 295 district races by December 11.
Later - A few links related to the above:
Projections of an LDP landslide
Lack of enthusiasm for election (J)
Support for the Cabinet (J)
Comparing post-war politics in Nepal and Sri Lanka
11 hours ago