Thursday, July 25, 2013

The 21 July 2013 Elections - In Case You Haven't

In case you haven't seen or had a chance to look at the numbers from Sunday's election, a random trio of tables:

Vote totals, nationwide, in district and proportional voting

Look at the shift of vote totals in the district and proportional columns for the LDP and the New Komeito. In past national elections, the ratios of the shifts has been one-to-one, with the increase in the numbers for New Komeito in the move from district to proportional equal to the decrease in the numbers for the LDP between the two columns. This year, the numbers for LDP district candidates is 600,000 voters short.

So who did those 600,000 New Komeito voters cast their ballots for in the district elections?

Later - I am open to the possibility that 600,000 non-regular New Komeito voters gave up their proportional votes to the New Komeito

a) out of disgust with the opposition parties and/or

b) to give the New Komeito some extra leverage in its coalition negotiations with the LDP.

% of the District Vote Versus % of Seats

a) Is the system geared? You bet it is. The LDP gets 42.7% of district votes and walks away with 64.4% of the seats.

b) Imagine how many more ballots would be spoilt if not for the proportional voting!

c) Look at the near perfect efficiency of New Komeito district voting. Wow, wow, wow.

Japan Restoration Party: Loved in the Kansai but Not Hated in the Kanto

Predictably, the Japan Restoration Party did exceptionally well in the Kansai region. Some 30% of its national totals came from the 6 Kansai prefectures, where the party captured from 14%-29% of the proportional vote in each.

However, the party did OK in Tokyo, winning 10% of its total vote there, pretty much in line with Tokyo's slice of the national voting age population.


jaichind said...

LDP/NKP got 47.9% of the district vote and 48.9% of the PR vote like you pointed out. Who do you assume that this gap is made up of NKP PR voters. I tend to think they are LDP PR voters. In this election it is media wave on how "cool" and "active" Abe is. I tend to think this 1% gap are made up of people who are vote LDP PR due to perception of LDP brand and conformism due to media hype. They then voted district for some other party (more likely YP or JRP.) I doubt anyone voted NKP district and then not vote NKP PR since for each district where NKP candidate ran there is a LDP running as well. NKP district voters then are part of the NKP machine and for sure will vote NKP on PR.

wataru said...

"So who did those 600,000 New Komeito voters cast their ballots for in the district elections?"
I voted for New Komeito in the proportional for your reason (b), as a brake on the LDP. But I knew Yamaguchi Natsuo was a shoo-in in Tokyo District voting, so went for Suzuki Kan to try to influence the 5th place vote. It's called strategic voting, which is all we've got left with the decline of opposition parties.