Wednesday, May 29, 2013

That Mountain In My Eye

Below is the graph of the support levels for the various major parties over the last six months, according to the monthly NHK public opinion survey:

Click on image to enlarge.

The House of Councillors election is less than two months away.

Somebody please tell me what the opposition parties could possibly hope to accomplish...and what the strategy would be to achieve that end...and please do not tell me it is "winning over the undecided voters."

Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute


Ἀντισθένης said...

Wasn't the DPJ just a spin-off of the LDP, or am I getting that wrong? Interesting how the loss in one is a direct gain in the other. Now if only they'd shut up in front of my train station!

MTC said...

Ἀντισθένης -

Valid and salient points.

Perhaps the undecideds are the only significant surviving opposition.

Alan Engel said...

Abe's leadership can and is at times crossing the line into steamrolling. The DPJ can argue for a role in keeping Abe from overreaching.

MTC said...

Mr. Engel -

Two problems with portraying the DPJ as the breakwater against Abe Cabinet/LDP extremism:

1) such a stance is not credible (the LDP and the New Komeito already have a supermajority in the House of Represenatives)

2) part of the Abe Cabinet's current surge in the public opinion polls arises from popular relief at the end of a divided Diet (nejire kokkai)

A.J. Sutter said...

It's impressive, but two things come to mind:

1. Who's running NHK these days?

2. Komeito isn't exactly an opposition party, but enough votes for them might put the brakes more firmly on LDP's Constitutional revisions, and perhaps some other of its neoliberal excesses, too.

MTC said...

Mr. Sutter -

1) A potentially interesting question.

2) The problem with pinning any hopes on the New Komeito is two-fold:

a) after July, the LDP will by itself have majorities in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. It will not need to rule in coalition with the New Komeito

b) as last night's ride to the rescue of Osaka City mayor Hashimoto Toru seems to demonstrate, the 2013 edition of the New Komeito can only be relied upon for opportunism