...that Noda Yoshihiko may not be out of the race for the post of leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, as I a week ago predicted he was. Indeed, this morning's Tokyo Shimbun showed Maehara and Noda neck and neck behind Kaieda Banri, with each of the two "mainstream" candidates being able to count upon about 50 solid votes (ja).
Still I think that Noda's well publicized stance (en) on the Class A war criminals is so certain to cause havoc in Japan's relations with its close physical neighbors that Noda cannot be the next prime minister.
The decision making processes of Nagata-cho are insular but they are not necessarily stupid.
It's a race that is too close to call. Kaieda won't get the necessary votes (200) to avoid a runoff, and will probably lose in the runoff when most people back the non-Ozawa-backed candidate.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I'm not as confident as you that Maehara is the obvious choice. Maehara is also a well-known hawk with at least one financing scandal the public knows of (along with another scandal that was hot gossip among politicians that was rumored to weigh in on his decision to step down as Foreign Minister). His selection would further drive a stake between the Ozawa group and the rest of the party, because of their well-documented spat that continues to this day. He is also viewed as a loose cannon http://mainichi.jp/select/seiji/minshudaihyousen/postkan/
As if foreign affairs really mattered all that much, the Chinese have gone on record as saying that the selection of Noda OR Maehara could damage Sino-Japanese relations, but I don't see China or Korea dictating the selection of the next Prime Minister.http://mainichi.jp/select/seiji/archive/news/2011/08/28/20110828ddm007010135000c.html
Aki Nagashima gave his official endorsement of Noda last night (Japan time) on Twitter saying that he stands the best chance at unifying the party and gaining the support of some LDP MPs on policies. Someone then responded, "Do you also endorse his proposed tax hike?" to which there was no response. This race is more about the internal politics than public opinion polls, and a Noda victory will confirm that.
For the (anonymous) record, I hope Noda doesn't win...
Was I censured or did my comment not get posted right? It doesn't matter; time will prove me right.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous -
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what happened to your comment. Luckily I received an email copy of it which I here reproduce in full.
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It's a race that is too close to call. Kaieda won't get the necessary votes (200) to avoid a runoff, and will probably lose in the runoff when most people back the non-Ozawa-backed candidate.
However, I'm not as confident as you that Maehara is the obvious choice. Maehara is also a well-known hawk with at least one financing scandal the public knows of (along with another scandal that was hot gossip among politicians that was rumored to weigh in on his decision to step down as Foreign Minister). His selection would further drive a stake between the Ozawa group and the rest of the party, because of their well-documented spat that continues to this day. He is also viewed as a loose cannon http://mainichi.jp/select/seiji/minshudaihyousen/postkan/
As if foreign affairs really mattered all that much, the Chinese have gone on record as saying that the selection of Noda OR Maehara could damage Sino-Japanese relations, but I don't see China or Korea dictating the selection of the next Prime Minister.http://mainichi.jp/select/seiji/archive/news/2011/08/28/20110828ddm007010135000c.html
Aki Nagashima gave his official endorsement of Noda last night (Japan time) on Twitter saying that he stands the best chance at unifying the party and gaining the support of some LDP MPs on policies. Someone then responded, "Do you also endorse his proposed tax hike?" to which there was no response. This race is more about the internal politics than public opinion polls, and a Noda victory will confirm that.
For the (anonymous) record, I hope Noda doesn't win...
Anonymous -
ReplyDeleteI will grant you that Noda does have a lot of establishment support.
I doubt, however, that his emollient personality will be able to seal the breach inside the DPJ. I think it is impossible to lure members of the LDP into supporting his initiatives. Since he also supports tax hikes of various flavors, I count the above as three strikes against him.
The possibility that he will be even worse for Sino-Japanese and ROK-Japanese relations than Koizumi was (he at least never questioned the judgment of the IMTFE) is just icing on the cake.