Thursday, April 08, 2010

The Paradox of the LDP in Opposition

The founding of the Stand Up, Japan! Party (a name that has engendered no end of sarcastic comment in the political realm) the defections of a total of nine sitting Diet members from the Liberal Democratic Party since the August election and the dispeptic vocalizations of Masuzoe Yo'ichi as regards the LDP's present leadership -- despite the absorption of Koike Yuriko and Kono Taro into the party leadership ranks -- all highlight the paradox the LDP faces as it tries to rev up its engines for the July House of Councillors elections. To whit:
The greater the decline in the support ratings for the leadership of the DPJ duarchy of Hatoyama Yukio and Ozawa Ichiro, the more fragile becomes the unity of the LDP.
That the unpopularity of the leaders of the ruling party ends up destabilizing the main opposition party is decidedly peculiar. One could almost believe a conspiracy was somehow subverting the natural order -- that Yosano Kaoru, Ozawa's counterpart in an ongoing friendly rivalry over who is the best Go player in the Diet, was conspiring with his board game buddy in a end-around play extracting from the LDP its heretofore most reliable pillars of support: fiscal conservatives and historical revisionists.

However, one need not appeal to a conspiracy to make sense of these seemingly contradictory results. The fissioning of even a rump LDP is entirely congruent with the Rule.

2 comments:

sigma1 said...

It is all very fascinating. Not sure how many fiscal conservative votes the new party will attract - but it seems that Yosano's move will help out both the DPJ and LDP - ensuring that the LDP does not "comeback" in its currently compromised form, and by ensuring that the DPJ has at least a few more years in power before it has to deal with a real opposition party. As I suggested yesterday, the recriminations from a complete electoral blowout for the LDP would, might allow Masuzoe to take a stranglehold over the party.....and it seems they know it - from the article you linked to here:

"He may simply want to evade any responsibility for the results of the upcoming House of Councillors election," another (LDP member) said.

And so would I!

Bryce said...

Why not "Gambare Nippon!"?

It worked for Burlesconi.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forza_Italia