Over at Observing Japan, Tobias Harris sends a tip of the hat in my direction for the theory that Nakagawa Hidenao, a big political enchilada in every sense of the phrase, strains but does not break his link to the Liberal Democratic Party in order to continue pocketing public political party funding (seitō kōfukin) while opening up space for political maneuvering (seikyoku) both now and after the next House of Representatives election.
First, I am making a semi-educated guess here -- I do not know the content of Nakagawa's thinking. As Mr. Harris's post points out, Nakagawa heaps hot, heaving tons of opprobrium upon the Democratic Party of Japan, his potential coalition partners in a hung Diet with a disintegrated LDP. Normally one would want to make nice, even if only once in a while, so as to signal to one's potential partner that one is ready to cut a deal, when the time comes. Perhaps Nakagawa, by making the nastiest noises possible, is trying to raise the price he can demand from the DPJ in order to woo him.
Second, I am merely the borrower of an analytical tool, not its developer. The individual deserving recognition is Okumura Jun, who has homed in on the crucial role public political funds have played in preventing or promoting the formation of new parties (here is a classic example). Unlike your truly, Okumura-san has restricted his analysis to situations where the importance of political funding is pretty much indisputable.
All credit and praise belongs to Okumura-san.
New Zealand’s 2017 election prospects
10 hours ago