Over at GlobalTalk 21 Okumura Jun offers a simple and elegant solution to one of the perennial conundrums of Japanese politics, namely:
"Why do the results of the telephone surveys of public opinion reflect the political biases of the major news organizations conducting the poll?"
I encourage consideration of Mr. Okumura's conjecture.
Interesting question and Mr. Okumura's hypothesis is intriguing as well - it makes sense at least. I had always just assumed question bias: the Asahi is likely to phrase questions differently from the Yomiuri, or even ask essentially different questions. Even when you know the bias is there, your answers will change.
ReplyDeleteI also wonder how random the surveys really are and, on that point, Okumura brings up a really good point: people are presumably more likely to talk to someone calling on behalf of the paper to which they already subscribe.