Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Why Could I Not Think of This?

Over at GlobalTalk 21 Okumura Jun offers a simple and elegant solution to one of the perennial conundrums of Japanese politics, namely:

"Why do the results of the telephone surveys of public opinion reflect the political biases of the major news organizations conducting the poll?"

I encourage consideration of Mr. Okumura's conjecture.

1 comment:

Garrett said...

Interesting question and Mr. Okumura's hypothesis is intriguing as well - it makes sense at least. I had always just assumed question bias: the Asahi is likely to phrase questions differently from the Yomiuri, or even ask essentially different questions. Even when you know the bias is there, your answers will change.

I also wonder how random the surveys really are and, on that point, Okumura brings up a really good point: people are presumably more likely to talk to someone calling on behalf of the paper to which they already subscribe.