Japan's Opposition Party Tops Ruling LDP in Poll, Mainichi SaysThe Bloomberg report contains an error. The actual numbers from the Mainichi poll are 44% wishing for a DPJ victory and 35% wishing for an LDP victory--not 33%.
By Tak Kumakura and Finbarr Flynn-- Jan. 22 -- Japan's opposition Democratic Party of Japan has a third more support than the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to win the next parliamentary election, a Mainichi newspaper survey found.
Forty-four percent of people who responded to the survey said they wanted the opposition Democratic Party to win the next Lower House election, while 33 percent favored the LDP...
Some might jump in and say, "This represents an improvement from the numbers of last month's survey when the numbers were 33% for the LDP and 46% for the DPJ."
Oh please--everything goes the LDP's way in the Diet for a month and they gain two percentage points of support? And the DPJ loses two? That's it?
Most importantly for the DPJ's fortunes, the party held steady among women at 38%. It was among the men that the drop came, from the anomalous 55% (a number so stunning I felt compelled to write a post about it ) down to a still impressive 51%.
More revealing of public revulsion with the ruling coalition are the answers to the question "What would be the makeup of the kind of government you would like?" [The figures in parentheses being the December numbers]
A purely LDP government 8% (10%)
The current LDP-Komeito coalition 16% (17%)
A grand coalition with the LDP and the DPJ in cooperation 29% (23%)
A coalition with the DPJ as its core 26% (21%)
A purely DPJ government 6% (11%)
Other 5% (6%)
The extremes have lost support, most dramatically a pure DPJ government. However, the significant lines are the second and the fourth, where the current LDP-led ruling coalition is 10% points behind its mirror opposite DPJ-led coalition. The high and rising number for the centrist grand coalition further demonstrates the sense that the current ruling coalition is a failure.
In the past, LDP governments could survive less-than-20% support ratings thanks to gerrymandering and the lack of an opposition with serious policies.
Those days are gone, however. The House of Representatives elections are too darn close to just and fair...and the DPJ's policies are too serious and politically savvy to mock.
Rearranging the deck chairs or trying to establish a third mature, sober, virginal, apolitical force are distractions. Artifice and diversions.
The LDP and the whole tawdry circus go to't, my dear Horatio.