tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post3796507861810527162..comments2023-10-09T00:45:55.603+09:00Comments on Shisaku: Non Verbal In PyongyangMTChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-89372267266403246392013-05-15T23:04:18.770+09:002013-05-15T23:04:18.770+09:00In your point 1 - the word ‘show’, you’re more or ...In your point 1 - the word ‘show’, you’re more or less confirming my point -:). Abe-san goes for something ‘big’ on the envelop, with little inside. After lots of fireworks and the dust settles, we’ll be back at square one… Although. In your point 2, you mention keeping the families of the abductees out of the loop – quite evident, as the whole movement has been so deeply infiltrated by dubious characters. Better keep them out if one wants a minimum of success. Abe has a field advantage there. Given his history, he’s well placed to spin a deal to those families. As for not involving the US, yeah, that might indeed be a smart move and indicative of wanting something more serious. I’m sceptical though (… that they were kept out of it).<br /><br />And then<br />‘<i>We should not underestimate Abe Shinzo's desire to be seen as the greatest statesman of the century</i>’<br />Luckily the century is still young! I’m mildly optimistic there will be a few more worthwhile contenders for the title over the next 86.5 years.<br /><br />Bottom line is this, then: I can see lots of reason why North Korea may be open to some deal with Japan. But can Abe-san offer something substantial in return, other than a shipment of the US rice that currently goes to waste in some Japanese warehouse and a summit? Something beyond a photo-op that would build a more lasting legacy?<br />Philippenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-3871599512206007552013-05-15T18:14:07.445+09:002013-05-15T18:14:07.445+09:00Philippe -
1) Sending the stage manager is indica...Philippe -<br /><br />1) Sending the stage manager is indicative that a really big show is in the works. Pyongyang is, after all, the greatest Potemkin village of all time.<br /><br />2) That the Americansand the families of the abductees were out of the loop supports the view that the current effort is deadly serious.<br /><br />We should not underestimate Abe Shinzo's desire to be seen as the greatest statesman of the century. Still smarting from the electoral defeats in 2003 and 2007, he is ready to do anything for a blowout in July -- even though, by any measure, he does not have to do diddly squat.<br />MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-15229066125340692592013-05-15T11:23:01.276+09:002013-05-15T11:23:01.276+09:00Why should I be surprised, let alone ‘astonished’?...Why should I be surprised, let alone ‘astonished’? ‘A’ deal has long been in the air ( I suspect the talks between the Noda administration and N.Korea were much further along than one thinks, the current admin just picked up the pieces). Behind all the bluster and sound bites of the recent months, there has been quite a bit of parallel talks, sometimes in co-ordination between various ‘allies’, sometimes in conflict. Whether that possible deal has real meat or is mere fluff we’ll have to see. The fact that Abe-san sends his chief PR guy makes me suspect the latter. It would allow the current Japanese government and Abe in particular to escape out of the hole they had put themselves in, though (his policy speech) by completely burying the abductees issue - close attention will probably reveal that nothing has changed…<br /><br />And yes for the Abe-apologists, it will make him ‘look’ like a realist and he’ll get some brownie points ahead of this summer’s elections. And of course he’s the perfect guy to sell a fluff deal to the hard-right, after having more or less torpedoed the Koizumi deal.Philippenoreply@blogger.com