tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post3494457329884074506..comments2023-10-09T00:45:55.603+09:00Comments on Shisaku: If Ozawa Ichiro Has His Price Then So Do IMTChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-61314735601728366652011-08-27T02:01:58.191+09:002011-08-27T02:01:58.191+09:00Sigma1 -
Ozawa Sakihito was being pressured thro...Sigma1 - <br /><br />Ozawa Sakihito was being pressured throughout the day to defer to Kaieda Banri's run for the leadership post. This is a pretty ugly display of muscle against a person who did everything he could to abnegate himself before Ozawa Ichiro and his associates.MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-50381285028138792242011-08-26T21:14:07.963+09:002011-08-26T21:14:07.963+09:00MTC, my basic point is that while leadership will ...MTC, my basic point is that while leadership will matter, the leadership of the characters on stage at this time will mostly not, simply because they will be retired or dead by the time the process actually gets underway.<br /><br />All major actors are mutually interlocked, unable to move decisively no matter how needed, and have been for the past decade. It will take a minimum of two to three election cycles - another 7-15 years or more - before things reach a crisis point where the deadlocks are resolved. <br /><br />By the time it happens, Ozawa, Hatoyama and the rest of that generation will be gone - long spent in this neverending, never resolved battle, or simply dead. Some of the young Diet members of today will be around and in power, though many will be losing their seats between now and then, but they will be their own by then, not minor actors in Osawa's playbook. The current battle-lines will be of minor historical interest and not much else.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-31426032063616819512011-08-26T14:07:34.772+09:002011-08-26T14:07:34.772+09:00Herr Morén -
Whiie much of what you have said is ...Herr Morén -<br /><br />Whiie much of what you have said is true, especially in light of the split control of the Houses of the Diet, leadership still matters. The disintegration and rebuilding can either be an orderly process, according to the rule of law, or a cowboy process, according to the whims of particular bureaucrats and powerful individuals. One can only imagine, for example, how a few tweaks of the personality and habits of Ozawa Ichiro would have for the last two years or the last twenty, choose your starting date, had a huge impact on the way Japan is today.MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-88536140398434630642011-08-26T14:01:34.311+09:002011-08-26T14:01:34.311+09:00It is strange, apparently Hatoyama and Ozawa are s...It is strange, apparently Hatoyama and Ozawa are still looking for a "third" candidate that might be able to trip up Maehara. Haraguchi has apparently communicated a desire "if asked" and as you mention Hirano has inserted himself into the mix. Apparently the former Deputy (Worst) Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno is also being considered. I doubt Ozawa S will support Maehara as he is the most adamant in terms of both not revising the manifesto and rolling back Ozawa's suspension. But, really, these kinds of games are not going to inspire a sense of confidence and loyalty in those members of his or Hatoyama's group that Ozawa seems to be treating as playthings. Will the election, much like the no-confidence vote, end up doing more damage than good to the unity of the Hatoyama/Ozawa group?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-70363402977189642702011-08-26T13:47:32.811+09:002011-08-26T13:47:32.811+09:00Well, fun, overall. If you think about it, all of ...Well, fun, overall. If you think about it, all of this churn, this Sturm und Drang is really inconsequential. What happens now doesn't determine Japans long-term future, and most of the people involved now won't be around long enough to be part of that determination.<br /><br />Whatever happens in the years after political realignment will have an impact, but that is at least another few years away. At <i>minimum</i> you'll have another election with the changed dynamics caused by new districting rules; more churn over one election cycle; then at least one more election that paves the way for proper disintegration and rebuild of the diet party structure. <br /><br />This needs to happen in concert with a similar societal realignment, with some of the fossilised structured falling apart and being replaced by new ones. Once the "lost generation" isn't a generation, but most of the working population - and we're unfortunately more than halfway there already - that will cause enough political and economic incentive for employment systems and social safety nets to adapt to reality. <br /><br />Similar processes will change agriculture and industry; expect small farmers to become much rarer as well as politically less powerful. And I'd also expect at least two major industry players to move abroad in all but name, and a third to go bankrupt - not discreetly overtaken by former competitors, but a very public belly-flop and Shakesperian death scene.<br /><br />These kind of large-scale events is what is going to determine the future of Japan. The current political theatre does not substantially affect these processes, and is just a sideshow.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.com