tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post5753518727592761198..comments2023-10-09T00:45:55.603+09:00Comments on Shisaku: Abenomics - Take Their Money And RunMTChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-86250691286073970312013-01-08T14:59:39.288+09:002013-01-08T14:59:39.288+09:00Yes, global equities and fx are two large influenc...Yes, global equities and fx are two large influences on the nikkei.<br /><br />In general, <br />global equities up --> Nikkei up<br />USDJPY up --> Nikkei up<br /><br />JPY is quoted in the markets (and media) as USDJPY so a weakening JPY takes the form of a rising USDJPY. When I referred to a rallying JPY this means a declining USDJPY. Poor wording on my part.<br /><br />My initial hypothesis was that because both global equities and USDJPY were up quite a bit, that the "Abe Rally" was nothing more than outside effects. As it turns out there is an "Abe Rally", but it's a meager 1.4% (see previous post for the math.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-40301202863221868702013-01-07T23:01:23.908+09:002013-01-07T23:01:23.908+09:00Anonymous -
I am confused because you seem to be...Anonymous - <br /><br />I am confused because you seem to be talking about two different impeti propelling Japanese equities upward. One is linkage between the globe's equity markets. Another is a response to currency movements. Which one is doing what?MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-1786273097793608422013-01-07T15:26:29.772+09:002013-01-07T15:26:29.772+09:00I'm still not sure you are understanding what ...I'm still not sure you are understanding what I'm trying to say. Again, apologies, i'm a terrible communicator. I'll just do the math:<br /><br />My point was that in USD terms the Nikkei "Abe Rally" may not even exist. While the Nikkei is up 23% and 10% since November 14th and December 14th (last day before the election) respectively, the INDU is also up: 7% and 2%. My rough guess was that the JPY weakening would more than make up for the raw Nikkei outperformance.<br /><br />As it turns out, in USD terms the NIkkei is up 11% and 4% since the 14ths of November and December which is an outperformance 4.5% and 1.4%. So there actually is an "Abe Rally" but it's a paltry 1.4% outperformance since he was elected.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-73715290338189169922013-01-07T05:40:18.239+09:002013-01-07T05:40:18.239+09:00Anonymous -
Looking at the Nikkei versus DJIA I a...Anonymous -<br /><br />Looking at the Nikkei versus DJIA I am afraid I see delinkage rather than linkage since April. The rise in the Nikkei since the beginning of December has been straight up, while the DJIA has been meandering upward.<br /><br />From your explanation, investors take money off the equities table after a currency rises and increase their investment as a currency falls. <br />MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-81745991727545977272013-01-07T00:36:31.168+09:002013-01-07T00:36:31.168+09:00I'm not quite sure I'm clear on your clari...I'm not quite sure I'm clear on your clarification questions. <br /><br />I'm not a very literate guy, so let me try again:<br /><br />In general, when INDU rallies, the NKY follows suit. The opposite is also true as is the converse.<br /><br />Similarly, in general when JPY rallies, the NKY sells off. (This is partly due to multinational Japanese companies being no more valuable globally just because of a JPY rise) <br /><br />So a NKY rally at the same time as a global equity rally AND a JPY sell off is exactly what one would expect. <br /><br />Good timing for Mr. Abe more than anything else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-19747026837513239302013-01-06T18:09:18.830+09:002013-01-06T18:09:18.830+09:00Anonymous -
Correct me if I am wrong, but in ord...Anonymous - <br /><br />Correct me if I am wrong, but in order for the movements to cancel each other out investors would have to have 1) yen liquid asset holdings that are not hedged for currency fluctuations and 2) global portfolio weightings that have not been adjusted to reflect the outcome of the election. <br />MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-84482038296575847692013-01-06T14:07:47.634+09:002013-01-06T14:07:47.634+09:00So everyone is an economics expert now. Dude, you ...So everyone is an economics expert now. Dude, you should stick to...whatever it is you do well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-12484509510299598092013-01-06T11:57:18.755+09:002013-01-06T11:57:18.755+09:00Thanks for being a voice of sanity among the cacop...Thanks for being a voice of sanity among the cacophony of nonsenseTonyhttp://www.tonywublog.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-59006747743556063442013-01-06T11:02:23.992+09:002013-01-06T11:02:23.992+09:00I haven't done the math but I reckon that if y...I haven't done the math but I reckon that if you look at the Nikkei index in dollar terms it has actually underperformed global equities rather than rallied with Abe's win. That is, the Abe rally is nothing more than an FX adjustment to the Nikkei tagged to rising global equities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-19854048126476049292013-01-06T10:05:34.565+09:002013-01-06T10:05:34.565+09:00I think you have summarized not just the LDP's...I think you have summarized not just the LDP's approach, but all the neo-con governments' financial policy (read larceny). Excellent.Ἀντισθένηςhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06199983680204710885noreply@blogger.com