tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post2625192531024150252..comments2023-10-09T00:45:55.603+09:00Comments on Shisaku: OK, So I Am Surprised, I Really AmMTChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-53823745389111835742013-07-23T21:17:19.086+09:002013-07-23T21:17:19.086+09:00For PR it is
Result My Pred
LDP ...For PR it is <br /><br /> Result My Pred <br />LDP 34.7% 36.1 NKP 14.2% 14.0 DPJ 13.4% 18.0<br />JRP 11.9% 8.8<br />JCP 9.7% 9.6<br />YP 8.9% 8.0<br />SDP 2.4% 2.0<br />PLP 1.8% 2.2<br /><br />The prediction I made I take the most pride in is the fact that LDP PR vote is below 35%. I always said that all those polls and then pundit predictions of LDP getting 40%, 45% or even 50% of the PR vote was hogwash. I said that LDP/NKP would be lucky to cross 50% although I predicted that they would barely cross it. They ended up at 48.9. What I take pride in is I know of no Japanese political pundit that made the call that LDP will be well below 40% like I did. And even I overestimated LDP PR vote by about 1%.<br /><br />On the flip side, is my goof up on the DPJ PR vote. I predicted 18% it is coming in at 13.4%. Same with JRP which I predicted 8.8% and it ended up being 11.9%. I guess these two goof ups are mirror images of each other. My model had almost half of the JRP voter from 2012 being made up of unhappy DPJ but anti-LDP voters. I figured given the implosion of JRP last couple of months these voters would come back to LDP. It seems they just did not vote. I also think these JRP comfort women blowups had the affect of drive the fringe nationalist right vote to come out in large numbers to show their support of a hard nationalist position. LDP ended not getting that vote but JRP did. Also I assumed more tactical voting by various small center-left parties supporters in favor of DPJ than really took place. <br /> <br />One funny fact about this election is that HRP got 1.1% of the district vote. That the HRP can get 1.1% of the district vote shows how sad things have become that over 1% of the voting population would use their vote for a cult whose leader claims to be the incarnation of the supreme spiritual being called El Cantare and claims he received a message from the spirit of the recently deceased "angel of light", former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, urging Japan to attack Mainland China and North Korea.jaichindnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-24530773601626584242013-07-23T11:10:29.530+09:002013-07-23T11:10:29.530+09:00[How can anyone resist having a young (she’s only ...<em>[How can anyone resist having a young (she’s only 30) Communist woman senator whose name is pronounced “Killer”?]</em><br /><br />Hahahaha, EPIC (I kinda like Ms Kira, though; maybe it's because left-wing female politicians here are not as likable as her).<br /><br />As for The Economist mention, it's <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21582044-shinzo-abe-prime-minister-enjoys-uncanny-popularity-man-plan" rel="nofollow">here</a>.Julián Ortega Martínezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13132666257585530706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-15838760357627309242013-07-22T14:00:25.723+09:002013-07-22T14:00:25.723+09:00Happy that some outsiders got in. By the way, Shis...Happy that some outsiders got in. By the way, Shisaku is mentioned in the 20-26 July issue of The Economist (p. 25 of the print edition).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-44045711895473376902013-07-22T13:17:11.150+09:002013-07-22T13:17:11.150+09:00I can't help looking up Antonio Inoki's bi...I can't help looking up Antonio Inoki's bio. Where does Mr. Hashimoto find people with such a fantastic life? So should we call him Muhammad Hussain Antonio Kanji Inoki now?<br /><br />Adroit analysis of the election, by the way. With near dictatorial power, Mr. Abe can really help Japan find its way after being "lost" for so long. 唐山noreply@blogger.com