tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post1432082906737396577..comments2023-10-09T00:45:55.603+09:00Comments on Shisaku: Are The Voters Set To Surprise The Cynics?MTChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-74332108529602660212013-07-18T06:05:38.821+09:002013-07-18T06:05:38.821+09:00jaichind -
I agree with your analysis. I indeed a...jaichind -<br /><br />I agree with your analysis. I indeed am on record as saying that even if Abe makes the numbers for a <i>tandoku</i> majority in both Houses, he will not dump the New Komeito:<br /><br />http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/2013/07/the-july-23-2013-abe-his-boots-are-made.htmlMTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6714063.post-68054006499018350382013-07-17T09:58:58.021+09:002013-07-17T09:58:58.021+09:00I do not buy the argument that a LDP goal is to ge...I do not buy the argument that a LDP goal is to get a majority by itself in the Upper house so it can dump NKP. If that were the goal it is going about it in an expensive way. It seems the way to 72 seats would mean LDP has to win 48-49 district seats and 23-24 PR seats. 23-24 PR seats would mean it has to win almost 50% of the PR vote. But if it could pull that off, then LDP should just nominate 2 candidates instead of 1 in the 10 2-seat districts and one more in Aichi and Kanagawa districts. If LDP is as popular as to come even close to winning 50% of the PR vote then for sure a bunch of these 12 extra LDP candidates could win without risk of having the existing LDP candidates losing due to LDP splitting among multiple LDP candidates. That the LDP is conservative in its nomination strategy means that it does not necessary believe these polls that have the LDP way ahead. Besides, even if LDP pulls off 72 seats it would be foolish for it to dump NKP. Once the Abe magic wears off, and DPJ recovers, a DPJ-NKP alliance would be deadly for the long-term electoral future of LDP, even with an alliance with YP and/or JRP.jaichindnoreply@blogger.com